TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[MargieCat]

Ik a lot of people are going to talk about "the suburbs" as a generic term in this race, however, I think there's several unique categories of suburbs that each have their own dyanmics.

1. The *rich* rich suburbs. The best examples of this are University Park north of downtown Dallas, and Hunters Creek Village west of downtown Houston. These suburbs are basically already filled in, very white, very educated, and ofc very rich. These suburbs are particularly conservative, and Biden had a record performance in them that no downballot Ds have come close to matching. This is overall a pretty small portion of suburbs, but they have very high voter turnout and hence have disproportionate importance.

2. The historically Black and Hispanic suburbs. These suburbs are established and have existed for at least several decades. Many people don't consider this in the category of suburbs even though they are very much set up like suburbs, albiet not very wealthy ones. These communities have generally drifted right along with the Hispanic and Black votes. These communities are particularly low turnout, and so turnout is probably more important than persuasion in these.

3. The diversifying inner-ring of suburbs. Think like Bellaire or Northern Dallas County. Developed suburbs that have historically been middle class white but are becoming extremely diverse with growing black, hispanic, and asian populations. These suburbs have shifted pretty hard left as a result of this growth, and Beto 2022 basically matched Biden in a lot of these communities likely in part as a result of this growth.

4. Outer suburbs. These are places like Fort Bend County, McKinney, and Denton which are experiencing rapid new development that's generally upper-middle class. These communities are universally shifting hard D, but in some cases still net Rs more votes just because there are so many more votes (60-40 split of 5000 votes nets more than 80-20 of just 1000). Like the last category, growth is really propelling D shifts and Beto matched or outran Biden in many cases.

5. El Paso, Laredo, and McAllen. Idk rlly what to call these but they exists, are heavily Hispanic, and have rlly weird dynamics.

Overall, not every TX suburb will fit clear cut into each of these categories, but generally speaking, a TX suburb should have some combination of these elements. I think it's important we differentiate cause each of these has really unique dynamics, and there are cases where the so-called Texas suburbs have diverged in their shifts pretty notably.

I don't consider the Memorial Villages to be suburbs, in the traditional sense. They are surrounded by Houston on all sides, as are Bellaire, West University, and Southside Place.

The latter three seem to be shifting leftwards at a decent rate, as is River Oaks. The Villages will never be blue, in my estimation. The leftward trends were minimal. I could see some of the less pricey parts of Memorial turning narrowly blue, in 77079 or outer 77024. The Villages are too wealthy, too white, and too Christian to ever turn blue.

When people talk about the suburbs shifting left, they are referring to the outer suburbs. Like Katy, Sugar Land, Tomball, The Woodlands, Pearland, etc. The middle class suburbs have lots of room to grow. Counties like Fort Bend, Collin, Williamson, etc. Very similar to Cobb and Gwinnett in Georgia.

The state gerrymandered the Memorial area into the new CD-38, for Wesley Hunt. Those wealthy precincts will always be predominately red. However, the district snakes its way up to Tomball. At the end of the decade, the more exurban parts of the precinct could be blue, if suburbs continue to shift. It could even be competitive at the end of the decade. But those villages will still be red and still have massive turnout.

[SnowLabrador]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We gotta get thru this Docugate story with Trump, Pencw and Biden that can hamper their Prez ambitious

[jamestroll]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

[President Johnson]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

SnowLabrador thinks that literally anything hurts the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

SnowLabrador thinks that literally anything hurts the Democrats.

It does, we haven't heard from FBI from Docugate on Pence, Trump and Biden don't forget we all know what happened to Gore and Especially Hillary that polls showed they were fibd despite Docugate and she Lost McLaughlin has RS ahead 47/42 and we all know Trafalgar polls are closer than D polls that showed Ryan winning and he LOST we have to wait Jan 24

We have 1 poll from KY Gov that's shows Beshear up 9 9 mnths before Eday

[SnowLabrador]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

It's a pretty serious issue, thousands of women are dying because they can't get abortions. For every horror story that makes local news, there are hundreds we don't know about. If I lived in Texas, I would want to get the hell out ASAP.

[MargieCat]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

Most Democratic voters can't afford to just pick up and move states because they don't like the policies coming out of their state government.

Another thing to consider, is that the GOP base is made up of elderly white voters. These are high-propensity voters. As they die off, the state will become somewhat less red. Especially in close downballot races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

Most Democratic voters can't afford to just pick up and move states because they don't like the policies coming out of their state government.

Another thing to consider, is that the GOP base is made up of elderly white voters. These are high-propensity voters. As they die off, the state will become somewhat less red. Especially in close downballot races.

Latinos in TX and FL are R too and it's not just elderly folks dying off the RS protect tax cuts for the wealthy but Beto lost because the D's want an assault weapons ban and TX and FL are pro gun rights that's why Deming's got crushed by 17 but FL have Red flag laws that's why Scott won but Biden is dealing with this Docugate too

But Harris and Desantis are the backup plans but if TX or FL didn't vote for Hillary or OH due to Scalia seat being vacant they're not voting for Harris, why do think Trafalgar never polls FL and TX it's safe R but time to time poll NC and OH

NBC news has Biden back at 44/55 Approvals and that is Eday polls where Beto lost by 11, before Docugate Biden 50/47 easy reelected

We were told Hillary was gonna win TX or FL and her polls were fine during Docugate  too it's because D's enjoy 76 approval among base but suffer deficits with Indies , that's why Gore, Kerry and Hillary lost close Eday

We're not winning TX with Biden at 44/55 and Beto lost by 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

It's a pretty serious issue, thousands of women are dying because they can't get abortions. For every horror story that makes local news, there are hundreds we don't know about. If I lived in Texas, I would want to get the hell out ASAP.

LoL before 12 weeks of pregnancy, it's called abortion pills and if Women miss a menstrual period it's called baby you can't have period if you are pregnant and it comes at the same time every month at starting at age 35 women start menapause they don't want embroyos past 35 and they give women 50 K to pay off student loans and they have pregnancy test I'd women miss a period I have sisters and a mom, my mom died from colon cancer by fibroids tumors

[Ferguson97]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

I really don't know why so many on Atlas refuse to accept the idea that people do not like living under governments where the rights are stripped away, and will move if they can.

We see conservatives fleeing California and New York because they don't like the governments there. Why is it so ridiculous to suggest the opposite might be true for liberals in Texas and Florida?

Also it's not just a matter of Texan Democrats leaving the state, but about hypothetical future residents now categorically ruling out moving there because of those laws.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What's interesting about Texas Dems is starting in 2014 they started running dedicated liberal candidates instead of moderates. Wendy Davis, Lupe Valdez, MJ Hegar, and ofc Beto O'Rourke were pretty liberal on the issues of guns and abortion. This strategy worked to an extent and got them into single digits, but there seems to be a 3-5% wall they run into. Not saying they need to neccesarily be pro life but maybe support some late term restrictions? And they need to be visibly pro 2A and not be saying stuff like Beto's "hell yes" comment. Background checks are one thing but wanting to confiscate people's guns in Texas of all places is not smart politics. If they can tone down their rhetoric a little bit, they might peel off enough voters to crack that seemingly impenetrable ceiling. That's what Sinema did in AZ, she ran a very centrist general election campaign and managed to open the door for other Dems. Once a Democrat breaks through in Texas, they can start to become more liberal on policy but they need to win first.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Ik a lot of people are going to talk about "the suburbs" as a generic term in this race, however, I think there's several unique categories of suburbs that each have their own dyanmics.

-snip-

When people talk about the suburbs shifting left, they are referring to the outer suburbs. Like Katy, Sugar Land, Tomball, The Woodlands, Pearland, etc. The middle class suburbs have lots of room to grow. Counties like Fort Bend, Collin, Williamson, etc. Very similar to Cobb and Gwinnett in Georgia.

Random fluff comment, but it's a bit jarring for me to think of the Houston suburbs Kevjumba, keshi, and Megan Thee Stallion grew up in (Sugar Land and Pearland) as "outer" suburbs". Probably because that usage is reminiscent of "exurb", which has certain demographic and electoral connotations ("WWC", "Trumpy", "posturbia", etc) that don't describe those suburbs well. For Metro Houston specifically this sounds like the Houston proper neighborhood of Alief being described as an "inner suburb".

As for the actual race, I tend to agree with Spectator on Cruz's chances, even if it might be wishcasting on my part as a partisan Dem.

[MargieCat]

Ik a lot of people are going to talk about "the suburbs" as a generic term in this race, however, I think there's several unique categories of suburbs that each have their own dyanmics.

-snip-

When people talk about the suburbs shifting left, they are referring to the outer suburbs. Like Katy, Sugar Land, Tomball, The Woodlands, Pearland, etc. The middle class suburbs have lots of room to grow. Counties like Fort Bend, Collin, Williamson, etc. Very similar to Cobb and Gwinnett in Georgia.

Random fluff comment, but it's a bit jarring for me to think of the Houston suburbs Kevjumba, keshi, and Megan Thee Stallion grew up in (Sugar Land and Pearland) as "outer" suburbs". Probably because that usage is reminiscent of "exurb", which has certain demographic and electoral connotations ("WWC", "Trumpy", "posturbia", etc) that don't describe those suburbs well. For Metro Houston specifically this sounds like the Houston proper neighborhood of Alief being described as an "inner suburb".

As for the actual race, I tend to agree with Spectator on Cruz's chances, even if it might be wishcasting on my part as a partisan Dem.

Truthfully, I wouldn't really refer to them as "outer suburbs." I just did because the poster I was replying to did.

When I hear "suburbs," I think of Sugar Land, Pearland, Katy, The Woodlands, Cypress, etc.

Outer suburbs or exurbs would probably be places further out, like Conroe, New Caney, Porter, Brookshire, Rosenberg, Magnolia, etc. Where new growth is very recent. Much more Trumpy than their more closer-in counterparts.

I would not consider upscale communities and towns surrounded by city limits to be suburbs, in the traditional sense (Bellaire, West U, The Villages, Dallas' park cities, etc.)

And I live in a suburban style neighborhood in the city limits of Houston. But I wouldn't refer to it as a suburb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is not going D with Biden back at 44/55 Approvals forget it when Beto lost by 11 with Biden at the same Approvals on Eday 22, before Docugate Biden was at 50/47

News flash NY only went 5 pts to Ds and we lost 4 H races at Biden at 44/55 Approvals

[Spectator]

What's interesting about Texas Dems is starting in 2014 they started running dedicated liberal candidates instead of moderates. Wendy Davis, Lupe Valdez, MJ Hegar, and ofc Beto O'Rourke were pretty liberal on the issues of guns and abortion. This strategy worked to an extent and got them into single digits, but there seems to be a 3-5% wall they run into. Not saying they need to neccesarily be pro life but maybe support some late term restrictions? And they need to be visibly pro 2A and not be saying stuff like Beto's "hell yes" comment. Background checks are one thing but wanting to confiscate people's guns in Texas of all places is not smart politics. If they can tone down their rhetoric a little bit, they might peel off enough voters to crack that seemingly impenetrable ceiling. That's what Sinema did in AZ, she ran a very centrist general election campaign and managed to open the door for other Dems. Once a Democrat breaks through in Texas, they can start to become more liberal on policy but they need to win first.

I do think there’s some truth to that. I think the ideal person to face Cruz would be someone who is generally pro-gun, but avoids talking about it as much as possible and is pro-oil. A white male veteran, too? But then again, Sinema proved that wasn’t necessary in Arizona then, which was about as red pre-2018 as Texas is now. Once Democrats notch their first statewide victory in Texas, they can then start testing the waters more to see what they can get away with and whatnot.

[Sir Mohamed]

What's interesting about Texas Dems is starting in 2014 they started running dedicated liberal candidates instead of moderates. Wendy Davis, Lupe Valdez, MJ Hegar, and ofc Beto O'Rourke were pretty liberal on the issues of guns and abortion. This strategy worked to an extent and got them into single digits, but there seems to be a 3-5% wall they run into. Not saying they need to neccesarily be pro life but maybe support some late term restrictions? And they need to be visibly pro 2A and not be saying stuff like Beto's "hell yes" comment. Background checks are one thing but wanting to confiscate people's guns in Texas of all places is not smart politics. If they can tone down their rhetoric a little bit, they might peel off enough voters to crack that seemingly impenetrable ceiling. That's what Sinema did in AZ, she ran a very centrist general election campaign and managed to open the door for other Dems. Once a Democrat breaks through in Texas, they can start to become more liberal on policy but they need to win first.

I do think there’s some truth to that. I think the ideal person to face Cruz would be someone who is generally pro-gun, but avoids talking about it as much as possible and is pro-oil. A white male veteran, too? But then again, Sinema proved that wasn’t necessary in Arizona then, which was about as red pre-2018 as Texas is now. Once Democrats notch their first statewide victory in Texas, they can then start testing the waters more to see what they can get away with and whatnot.

I wouldn't say pro- or anti-gun. Perhaps someone who comes off as more "pro gun" than a blue state Dem, but remember that a majority of Americans including gun owners support rational gun laws such as background checks. What Dems need is someone who's good at messaging and successfully and credibly counter any attacks that they want to take everyone's guns away.

[Spectator]

I did some math on how the Democratic challenger can erase Biden's 630,000 vote deficit statewide into a 100k vote lead by changing some variables only in the top 11 counties.

The turnout estimates I have in place I believe are very conservative and defensible in light of how fast these counties are growing, coupled with the fact that 2024 will feature a much more competitive Senate race than 2020 did. I didn't account for any changes in the rest of Texas's 200+ counties since that would be ridiculous, and I just assumed that any further turnout increases in red areas would be cancelled out by Cruz's D challenger doing better in most places than Biden '20, particularly in places along the border (as you can see in south Texas, the difference between 2018 and 2020 in places along the border was striking).

It is worth keeping in mind that much of rural Texas is stagnant or declining in population, so it remains an open question how many more raw R votes can be squeezed out of there. Combine that with the fact that most of the growth in conservative exurban counties like Montgomery, Comal, Guadalupe, Ellis, Rockwall, and Brazoria Counties have resulted in no to little net R gain in votes from '16 to '20, and I think the assumption that the other 200+ counties provide no to little net change in raw vote compared to 2020 is defensible.

My key takeaways from this are that Cruz's opponent essentially needs to get 60% of the vote in Harris County (iffy, but conceivable), and they need to narrowly flip Collin County (which I consider likely) and Denton County (iffier) while expanding the margins in Dallas, Tarrant, Travis, and Bexar counties. The math becomes a lot easier for the Democrat if they can also push the margins along the Texas border counties closer to Beto '18 and away from Biden '20. I played it relatively conservative though with El Paso County and Hidalgo County and assumed that the Democrat would do only marginally better than Biden '20 in those places:

Harris County
2018 Sen: D+17%
2020 Pres: D+13.2%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+21%
2020 Turnout: 1.641 million
2024 Turnout Target: 1.9 million
2020 Raw Margin: 217,500
2024 Proj Margin: 400,000
Difference '24 - '20: 182,500

Dallas County
2018 Sen: D+33%
2020 Pres: D+31.6%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+38%
2020 Turnout: 922K
2024 Turnout Target: 1 million
2020 Raw Margin: 291,500
2024 Proj Margin: 380,000
Difference '24 - '20: 88,500

Tarrant County
2018 Sen: D+1%
2020 Pres: D+0%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+10%
2020 Turnout: 835K
2024 Turnout Target: 900K
2020 Raw Margin: 2,000
2024 Proj Margin: 90,000
Difference '24 - '20: 88,000

Bexar County
2018 Sen: D+20%
2020 Pres: D+18%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+25%
2020 Turnout: 770K
2024 Turnout Target: 850K
2020 Raw Margin: 140,000
2024 Proj Margin: 212,500
Difference '24 - '20: 72,500

Travis County
2018 Sen: D+50%
2020 Pres: D+45%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+53%
2020 Turnout: 610K
2024 Turnout Target: 700K
2020 Raw Margin: 274,500
2024 Proj Margin: 371,000
Difference '24 - '20: 96,500

El Paso County
2018 Sen: D+50%
2020 Pres: D+35%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+40%
2020 Turnout: 267K
2024 Turnout Target: 300K
2020 Raw Margin: 94,000
2024 Proj Margin: 120,000
Difference '24 - '20: 26,000

Collin County
2018 Sen: R+6%
2020 Pres: R+4%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+4%
2020 Turnout: 492K
2024 Turnout Target: 600K
2020 Raw Margin: -21,500
2024 Proj Margin: 24,000
Difference '24 - '20: 45,500

Denton County
2018 Sen: R+8%
2020 Pres: R+8%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+1%
2020 Turnout: 418K
2024 Turnout Target: 500K
2020 Raw Margin: -34,000
2024 Proj Margin: 5,000
Difference '24 - '20: 39,000

Williamson County
2018 Sen: D+3%
2020 Pres: D+2%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+10%
2020 Turnout: 290K
2024 Target Turnout: 350K
2020 Raw Margin: 4,000
2024 Proj Margin: 35,000
Difference '24 - '20: 31,000

Fort Bend County
2018 Sen: D+12%
2020 Pres: D+11%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+17%
2020 Turnout: 358K
2024 Turnout Target: 400K
2020 Raw Margin: 38,000
2024 Proj Margin: 68,000
Difference '24 - '20: 30,000

Hidalgo County
2018 Sen: D+38%
2020 Pres: D+17%
2024 D Challenger Target: D+25%
2020 Turnout: 220K
2024 Turnout Target: 250K
2020 Raw Margin: 27,500
2024 Proj Margin: 62,500
Difference '24 - '20: 35,000

Assuming the raw vote margin in the rest of Texas remains relatively static (for the reasons laid out above), these changes would result in the Democrat challenger netting 734,500 votes out of these counties, and put them just over 100,000 votes ahead of Cruz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's are gonna be damage no matter what happens with the Inspection General report on the Docugate especially in red states like TX and FL anyways but Eday reform is going on in blue States

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/MarkPJonesTX/status/1628071939930566658?s=20

[2016]

@Spectator,
Honestly in 2018 Ted Cruz was still somewhat damaged because of his 2016 POTUS Campaign + TX Democrats had a sort of new fresh voice in Beto O'Rourke.

Colin Allred is no O'Rourke whatsoever and Cruz is a lot more popular compared to 2018.

Also Allred, since getting elected to the House in 2018, has voted 100 % with Democrats. Good Luck trying to sell that in a State like Texas.

If it's a Trump vs Biden Rematch in 2024 Turnout in Texas will be considerably lower because a lot of Republicans & Democrats will stay home as they both can't stomach voting for either of them.

Cruz will hammer Allred non-stop on Immigration.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/MarkPJonesTX/status/1628071939930566658?s=20

The only candidate I think who can possibly go all the way. I say go for it

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/MarkPJonesTX/status/1628071939930566658?s=20

Endorsed. He'd be a strong contender I guess.

[Gracile]

I'm not too optimistic about Allred's chances as this is still Texas, after all, though I'd imagine he's one of the Democrats' top choices in this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not in yet