Does Colin Allred win Collin County?

[ProgressiveModerate]

No Democrat has won the County in decades but he currently represents a small piece of the County in Congress, and it has generally zoomed left in recent cycles thanks to rapid growth and suburbanization. He also almost shares the same name as the County. Does he win it against Cruz in 2024?

[walleye26]

Voted Yes. I think it will be very close though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, I voted yes that R underestimate ALLRED because they think he will lose like Beto, he isn't Beto

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Cruz won it by 6 in 2018 and Corryn won it by 11 in 2022.

I expect Cruz to carry it. Certainly one that may flip democratic later in the decade though.

[Boobs]

Probably not, but it is one of those counties where the potential electorate has changed significantly even in just 4 years. Census population estimates have Collin County gaining 120k residents between 2020-2023. Another year of robust growth means there’s a potential for some surprises there. Obviously not even a majority of new residents will necessarily vote, but it’s possible some surprises could happen, and other suburban/exurban counties could see pretty strong swings as well. Collin used to be pretty consistently to the right of the statewide margin, but it leans Dem now (in O’Rourke’s runs, it went from being R+3.5 of the state to D+1).  I’d imagine it’ll be blue if Allred wins, but I don’t expect that.

[Roll Roons]

Probably not, but it is one of those counties where the potential electorate has changed significantly even in just 4 years. Census population estimates have Collin County gaining 120k residents between 2020-2023. Another year of robust growth means there’s a potential for some surprises there. Obviously not even a majority of new residents will necessarily vote, but it’s possible some surprises could happen, and other suburban/exurban counties could see pretty strong swings as well. Collin used to be pretty consistently to the right of the statewide margin, but it leans Dem now (in O’Rourke’s runs, it went from being R+3.5 of the state to D+1).  I’d imagine it’ll be blue if Allred wins, but I don’t expect that.

Yeah, winning Collin is necessary but not sufficient for both Allred and Biden. If they flip Denton, I think they've won the state.

[Joseph Cao]

Probably not, but it is one of those counties where the potential electorate has changed significantly even in just 4 years. Census population estimates have Collin County gaining 120k residents between 2020-2023. Another year of robust growth means there’s a potential for some surprises there. Obviously not even a majority of new residents will necessarily vote, but it’s possible some surprises could happen, and other suburban/exurban counties could see pretty strong swings as well. Collin used to be pretty consistently to the right of the statewide margin, but it leans Dem now (in O’Rourke’s runs, it went from being R+3.5 of the state to D+1).  I’d imagine it’ll be blue if Allred wins, but I don’t expect that.

You might even say the county isn't Allred anymore.

[Spectator]

Probably not, but it is one of those counties where the potential electorate has changed significantly even in just 4 years. Census population estimates have Collin County gaining 120k residents between 2020-2023. Another year of robust growth means there’s a potential for some surprises there. Obviously not even a majority of new residents will necessarily vote, but it’s possible some surprises could happen, and other suburban/exurban counties could see pretty strong swings as well. Collin used to be pretty consistently to the right of the statewide margin, but it leans Dem now (in O’Rourke’s runs, it went from being R+3.5 of the state to D+1).  I’d imagine it’ll be blue if Allred wins, but I don’t expect that.

Yeah, winning Collin is necessary but not sufficient for both Allred and Biden. If they flip Denton, I think they've won the state.

I’m not even sure flipping Denton is indicative of Dems flipping the state anymore on it’s own. DFW seems to be in a world of it’s own in terms of it’s Dem-friendly trend in a way Houston isn’t.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably not, but it is one of those counties where the potential electorate has changed significantly even in just 4 years. Census population estimates have Collin County gaining 120k residents between 2020-2023. Another year of robust growth means there’s a potential for some surprises there. Obviously not even a majority of new residents will necessarily vote, but it’s possible some surprises could happen, and other suburban/exurban counties could see pretty strong swings as well. Collin used to be pretty consistently to the right of the statewide margin, but it leans Dem now (in O’Rourke’s runs, it went from being R+3.5 of the state to D+1).  I’d imagine it’ll be blue if Allred wins, but I don’t expect that.

Yeah, winning Collin is necessary but not sufficient for both Allred and Biden. If they flip Denton, I think they've won the state.

I’m not even sure flipping Denton is indicative of Dems flipping the state anymore on it’s own. DFW seems to be in a world of it’s own in terms of it’s Dem-friendly trend in a way Houston isn’t.

Ye I could easily see Biden winning both Denton and Collin but losing TX statewide; that might actually be pretty close to the median outcome right now.

If Denton flips, the state is at least close though (like within 3%) because it likely suggests Dems are having another cycle of massive suburban gains around the state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah yes, the famed Homonym Bump. An electoral effect almost as powerful as mega-coattails.