MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

George Floyd is over RS cannot run on Defend police anymore BLM is about Gun Control that RS constantly block because of Ron DeSantis his stardom is gonna be over once he loses to Biden and he is down by 4 that's a wave insurance map not a 270 map and he is TL out in 26, we only need WI, MI and PA that have passed laws to ban Assault weapons not TX and FL Tester and Brown have won since 2006

Manchin probably loses this is Robert Byrd seat not Manchin we can afford a lose D's on Act blue are telling voters to Donate to Kunce Brown, Casey and Tester not FL and TX, Kunce is a WC D like Stein, Beshear and Presley and is a Vet or serve on Vet Committee Brown, MENENDEZ, Tester

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No RS have come and comment on this post because Tester is winning their path is only if Brown loses and Brown has managed to win every time

[UWS]

No RS have come and comment on this post because Tester is winning their path is only if Brown loses and Brown has managed to win every time

Tester has no problem giving away our energy independance. He has also been key partner for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his goal to have an energy chokehold on Europe. In fact,Tester received contributions from lobbyist Vincent Roberti and Axios reported that Roberti works for Nord Stream 2, the Russian-backed natural gas pipeline into Europe, that garnered bipartisan opposition.

https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?contributor_name=Roberti%2C+Vincent&two_year_transaction_period=2012

https://www.axios.com/2021/12/03/nord-stream-2-lobbyist-donations-schumer

Then in January 2022, Jon Tester voted against the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022, that would have approved sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline while it got support from both sides of the aisle. Raphael Warnock, Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark Kelly and Maggie Hassan voted for it. But the Democratic Party in the Senate, including Jon Tester, fillibustered that legislation and voted against it and we all know what happened after that : Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1172/vote_117_2_00008.htm#state

It just took maximum campaign contributions from a lobbyist, but Jon Tester was Putin’s pipeline partner until this was too late

So Tester has emboldened Putin and a vote for him is a vote for a Russian takeover of Ukraine and then, likely, the next-door country of Moldova. That's the reason why a GOP congress is the right course to win the War in Ukraine by taking advantage of all of America's sources of energy so Europeans can expect to rely on imports of American energy to heat this winter and by reinforcing our military to counter Russia's military strength and grant Ukraine with all the weaponry needed to win this War.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with your argument is that voters are looking at the GOP as the insurrection party and Rick Scott has promised to sunset SSA and give Giant tax cuts for the rich

What does a 1.5T dollar tax cut has to do with raising the minimum wage Boehner sat on during his 6 yr tenure as Speaker it's still 7.50 and not 15.00 and the RS said as soon as they take the H they would tackle inflation it's still 7% they are only investigation of Hunter Biden no plan to tackle the Debt that's why you guys are losing in NC Gov, KY Gov and MS Gov and LA Gov is a Runoff

So it's not just about Tester it's about the R party that's why the RS failed at getting 230 seats and you still criticize D's not RS you guys were supposed to have a red wave and you guys failed in a Midterm

[JMT]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

[SnowLabrador]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

Phew. This would have been an auto-flip without him. Truth be told, it probably will still flip, but we've at least got a chance with Tester running. If Tester had retired, there would be no chance.

[windjammer]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

What a surprise!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

Phew. This would have been an auto-flip without him. Truth be told, it probably will still flip, but we've at least got a chance with Tester running. If Tester had retired, there would be no chance.

Tester wouldn't have retired unless Bullock got in, that would have left D's without a candidate Bullock is still interested in 26 against Daines but he wants D's to get the Filibuster proof Trifecta before he runs lol stop underestimate Biden he has never lost a GE campaign

[here2view]

Populism

[2016]

I would not be surprised if Tester wins Re-Election in Montana while Sherrod Brown loses in Ohio.

Absolutely possible!

[MT Treasurer]

I would not be surprised if Tester wins Re-Election in Montana while Sherrod Brown loses in Ohio.

Absolutely possible!

Really, really bold take. It’s not as if the vast majority of observers who have been following the 2024 red state contests have been mentioning or hinting at this in some way, shape or form or anything.

If I had a dime for every "You shouldn’t underestimate Jon Tester", "Tester’s not going to be easy to beat" or "Ohio will be easier for Republicans than Montana" that I’ve heard - yes! - even outside of this forum, I’d probably be able to take three months off.

I don’t think any Republican operative in the state is actually underestimating Jon Tester or treating this race as any better than a pure Toss-up. In fact, if you asked most people involved in/with access to electoral war rooms or past campaigns, I’d wager that the majority (including a considerable number of Republicans) would tell you that Tester is favored over anyone not named Greg Gianforte (including Zinke and especially Rosendale) and no worse than a very slight underdog to Gianforte.

In fact, I’m struggling to think of another Senate race where there has been such a notable disconnect between the empirical situation on the ground (which suggests that any competently executed campaign will start out with an advantage over Tester) and the "gut-level" feelings of people involved in state politics/political campaigns. ND-SEN 2018 does spring to mind, though — not a perfect analogy by any means, and Tester almost certainly won’t fall into some of the traps that Heitkamp did unless he becomes overconfident (always a danger for entrenched incumbents in particular), but few people actually expected Heitkamp to lose (let alone by the margin she did) in 2016/2017. I think she herself bought into the hype that she was unbeatable/that her facade was rock-solid and let down her guard in the process. Bullock did the same thing — assumed that his brand was indestructible and figured that even a presidential bid wouldn’t hurt him much back home. The problem many of these people had is that they thought they could get away with anything because ideology and the incumbent's voting/past record matter far less to swing voters than personality, branding, and rhetoric. This is of course not an incorrect assumption per se, but if (and only if) undergirded by the right rhetoric, your voting record and past can turn into a useful tool (and often, as in the case of Heitkamp, the only available tool) to change even less informed voters' perceptions of you. It’s not easy, but it can be done if you have the right people working for your opponent's campaign!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS are all the same they think polls 2 yrs before Eday are gonna stand  and Trump and insurrection indictments are pending there weren't any indictments before 22


Mt Treasure comes to every thread and has Daines brain there are more Ds than RS in this country because we win the PVI how does Daines reach out to Blks voters in OH, MO,  TX  he doesn't Vance won solely on a Bush W R DeWine, DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24

[President Johnson]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

ENDORSED!

One of my favorite senators and possibly the one who most represents the people of his state among almost all of his colleagues.

If he again faces Rosendale, I'd start out with a Tilt Democratic rating.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1634006266526810113?s=46&t=1L1DjzVkQVQfX2mT1pZCrQ

Apparently Daines is trying to recruit Tim Sheehy. Never heard of him, but he seems like a pretty good candidate on paper.

EDIT: looked into it more. Pros: veteran, Purple Heart recipient, self-funder. Cons: first time candidate, close to Zinke, moved to Montana as an adult. Also, I think you’re seeing a dynamic in several states of NRSC-backed normie conservatives (Sheehy, LaRose, Justice) against more insurgent types (Rosendale, Davidson, Mooney). Of course I think all but one of those candidates have yet to announce, so who knows, and maybe the base was chastened by 2022, but you’re still running the risk of a damaging primary, and I don’t know that it’s ever a winning strategy to position yourself to the left of another credible candidate in a GOP primary these days.

[Woody]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

But wait, you're in office now. Why didn't you this when you were senator for 16 years?

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1634006266526810113?s=46&t=1L1DjzVkQVQfX2mT1pZCrQ

Apparently Daines is trying to recruit Tim Sheehy. Never heard of him, but he seems like a pretty good candidate on paper.

EDIT: looked into it more. Pros: veteran, Purple Heart recipient, self-funder. Cons: first time candidate, close to Zinke, moved to Montana as an adult. Also, I think you’re seeing a dynamic in several states of NRSC-backed normie conservatives (Sheehy, LaRose, Justice) against more insurgent types (Rosendale, Davidson, Mooney). Of course I think all but one of those candidates have yet to announce, so who knows, and maybe the base was chastened by 2022, but you’re still running the risk of a damaging primary, and I don’t know that it’s ever a winning strategy to position yourself to the left of another credible candidate in a GOP primary these days.

High risk/high reward move for Republicans here - of course he could wind up being a superstar but these first-time candidates tend to require a lot of hand-holding at the start (and sometimes longer, see J.D. Vance) and are usually prone to damaging oppo as they're more difficult to vet before they announce.

It's a testament to both the perceived weakness of the Montana Republican bench and/or the difficulty of persuading sitting officeholders to run for the U.S. Senate (more likely the latter) that this guy is being recruited so aggressively.

[David Hume]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1634006266526810113?s=46&t=1L1DjzVkQVQfX2mT1pZCrQ

Apparently Daines is trying to recruit Tim Sheehy. Never heard of him, but he seems like a pretty good candidate on paper.

EDIT: looked into it more. Pros: veteran, Purple Heart recipient, self-funder. Cons: first time candidate, close to Zinke, moved to Montana as an adult. Also, I think you’re seeing a dynamic in several states of NRSC-backed normie conservatives (Sheehy, LaRose, Justice) against more insurgent types (Rosendale, Davidson, Mooney). Of course I think all but one of those candidates have yet to announce, so who knows, and maybe the base was chastened by 2022, but you’re still running the risk of a damaging primary, and I don’t know that it’s ever a winning strategy to position yourself to the left of another credible candidate in a GOP primary these days.

While I acknowledge Dianes knows his home state much better than me, I wonder if Sheehy is a good challenger to Tester. Tester may appeal to the farmers by portraying Sheehy as a business elite, and disconnected to the MT farmers. I think Gov. Gainforte is a much better choice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Aside from WV D's are fav in MT and AZ and OH and we have wave insurance seats in FL, MO and TX anyways

Rod Joseph, Gallego and Kunce and hopefully Allred will win next Nov and are decorating Vets it's a 538 not 303 and we won AK and KS 22 and winning in MS and KY Gov

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1634006266526810113?s=46&t=1L1DjzVkQVQfX2mT1pZCrQ

Apparently Daines is trying to recruit Tim Sheehy. Never heard of him, but he seems like a pretty good candidate on paper.

EDIT: looked into it more. Pros: veteran, Purple Heart recipient, self-funder. Cons: first time candidate, close to Zinke, moved to Montana as an adult. Also, I think you’re seeing a dynamic in several states of NRSC-backed normie conservatives (Sheehy, LaRose, Justice) against more insurgent types (Rosendale, Davidson, Mooney). Of course I think all but one of those candidates have yet to announce, so who knows, and maybe the base was chastened by 2022, but you’re still running the risk of a damaging primary, and I don’t know that it’s ever a winning strategy to position yourself to the left of another credible candidate in a GOP primary these days.

High risk/high reward move for Republicans here - of course he could wind up being a superstar but these first-time candidates tend to require a lot of hand-holding at the start (and sometimes longer, see J.D. Vance) and are usually prone to damaging oppo as they're more difficult to vet before they announce.

It's a testament to both the perceived weakness of the Montana Republican bench and/or the difficulty of persuading sitting officeholders to run for the U.S. Senate (more likely the latter) that this guy is being recruited so aggressively.

It's interesting, though – if you'd had asked me for the ideal candidate excluding Gianforte I'd have said AG Knudsen, who had apparently expressed interest and at least had won statewide before. Maybe he didn't bite?

You're right about the difficulty of getting people to run for Senate these days. I think another important factor is that the US House is a real breeding ground for crazy Republicans these days. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of the problem children I mentioned above are in the House, and in a state like Montana if you get an unlucky roll of the dice it's pretty easy to end up with two unelectable representatives, which is a problem if the job is so miserable that only representatives with Stockholm syndrome from the House seem to want to run.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1634006266526810113?s=46&t=1L1DjzVkQVQfX2mT1pZCrQ

Apparently Daines is trying to recruit Tim Sheehy. Never heard of him, but he seems like a pretty good candidate on paper.

EDIT: looked into it more. Pros: veteran, Purple Heart recipient, self-funder. Cons: first time candidate, close to Zinke, moved to Montana as an adult. Also, I think you’re seeing a dynamic in several states of NRSC-backed normie conservatives (Sheehy, LaRose, Justice) against more insurgent types (Rosendale, Davidson, Mooney). Of course I think all but one of those candidates have yet to announce, so who knows, and maybe the base was chastened by 2022, but you’re still running the risk of a damaging primary, and I don’t know that it’s ever a winning strategy to position yourself to the left of another credible candidate in a GOP primary these days.

High risk/high reward move for Republicans here - of course he could wind up being a superstar but these first-time candidates tend to require a lot of hand-holding at the start (and sometimes longer, see J.D. Vance) and are usually prone to damaging oppo as they're more difficult to vet before they announce.

It's a testament to both the perceived weakness of the Montana Republican bench and/or the difficulty of persuading sitting officeholders to run for the U.S. Senate (more likely the latter) that this guy is being recruited so aggressively.

It's interesting, though – if you'd had asked me for the ideal candidate excluding Gianforte I'd have said AG Knudsen, who had apparently expressed interest and at least had won statewide before. Maybe he didn't bite?

You're right about the difficulty of getting people to run for Senate these days. I think another important factor is that the US House is a real breeding ground for crazy Republicans these days. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of the problem children I mentioned above are in the House, and in a state like Montana if you get an unlucky roll of the dice it's pretty easy to end up with two unelectable representatives, which is a problem if the job is so miserable that only representatives with Stockholm syndrome from the House seem to want to run.

Yeah. Their two Representatives almost lost in an R district in a D midterm and already lost to Tester in 2018 respectively.

[Ferguson97]

I would not be surprised if Tester wins Re-Election in Montana while Sherrod Brown loses in Ohio.

Absolutely possible!

Really, really bold take. It’s not as if the vast majority of observers who have been following the 2024 red state contests have been mentioning or hinting at this in some way, shape or form or anything.

If I had a dime for every "You shouldn’t underestimate Jon Tester", "Tester’s not going to be easy to beat" or "Ohio will be easier for Republicans than Montana" that I’ve heard - yes! - even outside of this forum, I’d probably be able to take three months off.

I don’t think any Republican operative in the state is actually underestimating Jon Tester or treating this race as any better than a pure Toss-up. In fact, if you asked most people involved in/with access to electoral war rooms or past campaigns, I’d wager that the majority (including a considerable number of Republicans) would tell you that Tester is favored over anyone not named Greg Gianforte (including Zinke and especially Rosendale) and no worse than a very slight underdog to Gianforte.

In fact, I’m struggling to think of another Senate race where there has been such a notable disconnect between the empirical situation on the ground (which suggests that any competently executed campaign will start out with an advantage over Tester) and the "gut-level" feelings of people involved in state politics/political campaigns. ND-SEN 2018 does spring to mind, though — not a perfect analogy by any means, and Tester almost certainly won’t fall into some of the traps that Heitkamp did unless he becomes overconfident (always a danger for entrenched incumbents in particular), but few people actually expected Heitkamp to lose (let alone by the margin she did) in 2016/2017. I think she herself bought into the hype that she was unbeatable/that her facade was rock-solid and let down her guard in the process. Bullock did the same thing — assumed that his brand was indestructible and figured that even a presidential bid wouldn’t hurt him much back home. The problem many of these people had is that they thought they could get away with anything because ideology and the incumbent's voting/past record matter far less to swing voters than personality, branding, and rhetoric. This is of course not an incorrect assumption per se, but if (and only if) undergirded by the right rhetoric, your voting record and past can turn into a useful tool (and often, as in the case of Heitkamp, the only available tool) to change even less informed voters' perceptions of you. It’s not easy, but it can be done if you have the right people working for your opponent's campaign!

That you think Tester loses is basically confirmation that he will win re-election.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/national-republicans-senate-candidates-rich-00088199

Nestled in the above politico article which mention GOP recruitment of Scheechy is a quote that makes it seem like Zinc won't run.

"But it seems increasingly likely that another contender for Senate in Montana, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who served as Donald Trump’s secretary of the Interior, won’t enter the race. In an interview this month, he said he had not made a decision but that his current focus was on his work on the Appropriations Committee, which he described as a “full-time job.” “I can’t run the Senate campaign and be in Appropriations,” he said."

[SnowLabrador]

That’s a shame. Zinke is weaker than Rosendale.

[TML]

That’s a shame. Zinke is weaker than Rosendale.

Not necessarily - Zinke did better when he shared the ticket with Rosendale in 2016, and Zinke also did better in the current MT-01 in 2022 compared to how Rosendale did in the equivalent area in 2018 and/or 2020.

[UWS]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/national-republicans-senate-candidates-rich-00088199

Nestled in the above politico article which mention GOP recruitment of Scheechy is a quote that makes it seem like Zinc won't run.

"But it seems increasingly likely that another contender for Senate in Montana, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who served as Donald Trump’s secretary of the Interior, won’t enter the race. In an interview this month, he said he had not made a decision but that his current focus was on his work on the Appropriations Committee, which he described as a “full-time job.” “I can’t run the Senate campaign and be in Appropriations,” he said."

It seems that the MT GOP won't be so much divided through a wide open primary race, increasing our chances to win the race. A bit like when Rick Scott was the uncontested frontrunner for the Republican senate nomination in 2018, it gave him enough time to raise funds and appeal among general election voters, which likely played a role in his razor thin margin