Congressional Leadership Megathread - McCarthy elected Speaker after 15 ballots, 4 days

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Who is the highest-ranking relatively moderate Republican on offer? I would assume Fitzpatrick or Bacon?

It would be Bacon or McMorris Rogers. Fitzpatrick has thrown his support behind McCarthy

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

SNIP

Presently, Gaetz, Biggs, Good, and Rosendale have all expressed varying levels of dissatisfaction with McCarthy. That right there is likely enough to sink him, which they know. We are currently at McCarthy trying to woo these guys back on board stage of negotiations (See Hunter Biden) before they say they would only support Scalise or worse - one of their own.

What we will have to see about is if said bending over backward causes those on the other side of the party to break. Once again, they don't need to be true moderates, just power-hungry non-radicals who want all the committee chairs, speaker seat, and are willing to promise the dems that the ship will remain stable.

Assuming Republicans win CA-22 and CA-13, those four defections would put McCarthy at 218 - which is the bare minimum needed.

Of course, this is assuming that Good/Rosendale/Biggs/Gaetz vote present, or against McCarthy. If they don't vote at all, then the threshold for the speakership is 216, which McCarthy would be above.

Of course if they're demanding concessions, my assumption would be that they're threatening to actually sink him rather than abstain as a protest.

No chance that you get moderate Rs to back Jeffries, but I think Pelosi could convince all the Dems to vote for a "compromise" Speaker. Question becomes, who are the 5 moderate Rs to vote with the Dems? And does Gatez' team cave and pick McCarthy to avoid Speaker Don Bacon/Henry Ceullar/Josh Gottheimer?

Actually, voting Present effectively counts as an abstention in the speaker vote, as you can see in this record of the 2021 speaker vote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election

In order for a vote against to be meaningful, one must actually call out the name of an alternative candidate.

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/jaredpolis/status/1593689568548560896?s=20&t=Y5-EZGvEI6_...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/jaredpolis/status/1593689568548560896?s=20&t=Y5-EZGvEI6_...

Oh right, I forgot...Jared Polis is a libertarian.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/jaredpolis/status/1593689568548560896?s=20&t=Y5-EZGvEI6_...

That would unironically be a great experiment, but it obviously won't happen.

[Pres Mike]

Congressional leaders have far too much power to determine what gets a floor vote and what doesn't. How many potential bipartisan bills were killed over the years because McConnell, Boenher or Ryan didn't want to upset the majority of their caucus.

Democrats should work with moderate Republicans to elect a moderate compromise speaker. There are a lot of good bills we can pass that might get 5 republicans to vote for. It would be stupid to allow McCarthy to become speaker and veto every single senate pass bill so he doesn't upset MTG and the Freedom Caucus.

[wbrocks67]

I want to believe, but I just don't. I suspect enough will fall in line at the end.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594757549009551363

[Oryxslayer]

I want to believe, but I just don't. I suspect enough will fall in line at the end.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594757549009551363

More votes he has behind him, more leverage he can demand. That's his game. Like Kinzinger said yesterday (though he has biases) McCarthy has had to make too many deals with too many people to get here. Having to cut more at the finish line will likely break other deals.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/jaredpolis/status/1593689568548560896?s=20&t=Y5-EZGvEI6_...

That would unironically be a great experiment, but it obviously won't happen.

FWIW, the house historically did consider most bills under an open amendment process. But beginning during the Gingrich Speakership that started to change. In the mid-2000s and again in 2011-2013, David Dreier tried to use his influence as Chair of the Rules Committee to re-open the process, but his initial successor Louise Slaughter and his later successor Pete Sessions (especially after Boehner left the Speakership) both just locked up the process even more. And the duo of Speaker Pelosi and Chairman McGovern have arguably been even worse than the Ryan/Sessions duo was. It would take a lot to go back to truly regular order at this point. But I would love to see it happen.

Apparently GOP and Democratic centrists are considering their options if the vote goes to a second ballot: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/21/gop-centrists-flex-muscles-00069541

Also there is a weird outside chance scenario, if McCarthy's GOP detractors vote present instead of voting for an actual alternative name, where Jeffries actually could win the Speakership. But very low chance that actually occurs.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/olivia_beavers/status/1595091448269078531

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1596882139596849154

[NewYorkExpress]

I feel like the path is being greased for Clyburn either as Minority Leader or as a compromise Speaker (I assume he'd be more acceptable to progressives than Jefferies, given some of the hatred I've seen against Jefferies online).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I feel like the path is being greased for Clyburn either as Minority Leader or as a compromise Speaker (I assume he'd be more acceptable to progressives than Jefferies, given some of the hatred I've seen against Jefferies online).

If you're referring to a compromise Speaker for this congress (2023) progressives would not be on board or needed. It'll be a majority of Republicans allying with problem solvers and maybe some mainline folks. As for future congresses, perhaps.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCarthy is starting to admit that he doesn't have the votes:

“We will only be successful if we work together, or we’ll lose individually,” he claimed. “This is very fragile — that we’re the only stop-gap for this Biden administration. And if we don’t do this right, the Democrats can take the majority.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/leader-mccarthy-speakership-mayorkas/2022/11/28/id/1098278/

Second Ballot! Compromise Speaker here we come!

[brucejoel99]

C'mon, 212+Newhouse+Valadao+Bacon+Fitzpatrick+Mace+Kean, c'mon:

https://twitter.com/mzanona/status/1597653186093146112

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1597653186093146112?s=20&t=YAazTMbpVAuJgb...

Admittance he will need multiple ballots at minimum.

[Ferguson97]

Ultimately I think that the anti-McCarthy Rs will cave since they'd probably rather have McCarthy than whatever moderate compromise speaker the Ds+moderate Rs could agree on.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1597933918728093697

[Sir Mohamed]

Ultimately I think that the anti-McCarthy Rs will cave since they'd probably rather have McCarthy than whatever moderate compromise speaker the Ds+moderate Rs could agree on.

That's a fair assumption. That said, the Freedom Caucus is perfectly fine with blowing everything up and just insist for the rest of the caucus to install a crazy weirdo. Anyway, lots of turmoil will ultimately hurt the GOP. Perhaps that's the one good thing about a slim R-majority. If Dems had 218 or 219 seats, the burden would be on us to avoid multiple ballots and still pass legislation.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

This current slate better not expect to be in power for another 20 years like Nancy, I honestly think there should be some sort of term limit on these positions.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1598000785044180995

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So how long do we think we’ll be stuck with Jeffries? And, more importantly, how did he somehow get the job over far less sh!tty candidates?

[Comrade Funk]

So how long do we think we’ll be stuck with Jeffries? And, more importantly, how did he somehow get the job over far less sh!tty candidates?

Because the 80 year olds in power stuck around so long that guys like Van Hollen moved on

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/repkclark/status/1598013191090339840?s=46&t=WZu78bdd2vp9...

They all look so uncomfortable and awkward it’s hilarious

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/repkclark/status/1598013191090339840?s=46&t=WZu78bdd2vp9...

They all look so uncomfortable and awkward it’s hilarious