The Bear strikes back.

[NewYorkExpress]

2008 had seemed like a lifetime ago to Sarah Palin. If she were to answer honestly, she hadn't been ready for the job John McCain had asked her to take on when he named her his running mate. Now, sixteen years later, having toppled Donald Trump, a former President in the Republican Primary, and having polled ahead of the incumbent President, Joe Biden, throughout the race, she was about to get the victory that had eluded her sixteen years earlier.

Palin's youth compared to Biden (she was almost thirty years younger), and her history-making candidacy (first female Republican Presidential nominee, and first all-female ticket for either Party), had cranked up turnout, and brought many female voters over to her side. Kamala Harris had proven to be a liablity over the previous four years as well, and Biden's refusal to drop her hadn't helped his chances, as voters simply didn't believe she would be up to the job of being President if something happened to Biden, which given his age, seemed likely.

Former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) 49.13%
President of the United States Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris (D-CA) 48.75%

[Enduro]

Ok, you have my attention.

[NewYorkExpress]

While Palin had won atop the ballot, her coattails hadn't been impressive. Republicans had entered the 2024 elections with a 219-216 majority in the House, and 51-49 deficit in the Senate. They were confident they could flip the Senate, but most leaders felt it was likely they would simultaneously lose the House as well.

In the House, a record low number of seats changed partisan hands, as a total of only seven seats flipped from one party to another.

Four of those seats were in New York, as all four Long Island Congressional Districts, flipped from Republican to Democrat.

In NY-1, State Assemblyman Fred Thiele defeated the incumbent, Lee Zeldin.

In NY-2, the incumbent, Andrew Garbarino was vacating the seat to mount an unsuccessful bid for the Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand. Former Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone defeated State Senator Phil Boyle.

In NY-3, former Representative Tom Suozzi defeated the incumbent, George Santos

In NY-4, State Assemblywoman Michelle Solages defeated the incumbent, Anthony D'Esposito.

The other three partisan changes were all Republican gains, one in Washington, one in Ohio, and one in Pennsylvania.

In WA-8, Former State Senator Dino Rossi defeated Incumbent Kim Schrier.

In OH-9, where the incumbent Marcy Kaptur elected to retire, State Representative Robert Cupp defeated Toledo Mayor Wade Kapsuzkiewicz.

In PA-8, State Senator Lisa Baker defeated incumbent Matt Cartwright.

Republicans had a better time in the Senate, picking off two open seats, and knocking off two incumbents, while losing one incumbent to the Democrats, and one open seat to the Democrats.

In West Virginia, where the incumbent, Joe Manchin was retiring, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey defeated former State Senator Richard Ojeda.

In Arizona, where the incumbent, Krysten Sinema was defeated in the Democratic Primary, Treasurer Kimberly Yee defeated Representative Ruben Gallego.

In Montana, former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton defeated incumbent Jon Tester.

In Pennsylvania, State Senator Joe Pittman defeated incumbent Bob Casey Jr.

In Texas, Representative Colin Allred defeated the incumbent, Ted Cruz.

In Indiana, where Mike Braun retired to run for Governor, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett defeated Governor Eric Holcomb.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

In Pennsylvania, State Senator Joe Pittman defeated incumbent Bob Casey Jr.

In Indiana, where Mike Braun retired to run for Governor, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett defeated Governor Eric Holcomb.

[NewYorkExpress]

In Pennsylvania, State Senator Joe Pittman defeated incumbent Bob Casey Jr.

In Indiana, where Mike Braun retired to run for Governor, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett defeated Governor Eric Holcomb.

I had to decide between Sherrod Brown and Casey losing. I like Sherrod Brown more, so he survived and Casey lost.

As for Indiana, Holcomb's COVID policies meant Republicans stayed home en masse. He would have lost the primary had a serious Republican (Spartz, for example) ran against him, but the NRSC cleared the field for him, and it backfired. Any other Republican would have held the seat, even against Hogsett (maybe not Mike Pence, but Pence wasn't interested in running for Senate).

[NewYorkExpress]

Palin had some tough decisions to make for her cabinet right away. She deliberately put off filling the Big Five Cabinet positions of State, Treasury, Justice, Defense and Homeland Security (six if you count the UN) until later, and set a goal of having all her cabinet nominees named by the time the new Congress was sworn in on January 1.

The first trio of nominees she announced were for Secretary of Veteran's Affairs, Secretary of Transportation and Secretary of the Interior on November 16.

For Secretary of Veteran's Affairs, Palin nominated Representative Dan Crenshaw (R, TX-2). Crenshaw, while a significantly right wing Republican was perceived as someone who understood veterans and their needs.

For Secretary of Transportation, Palin chose to nominate the former Chairman of the MTA, Joe Lhota. Lhota was considered an able administrator, and was expected to glide to confirmation.

For Secretary of the Interior, Palin nominated her former opponent, and fellow Alaskan, Representative Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL). Peltola's nomination was considered a modest surprise, given the Democrat's position on environmental policy, however, Peltola had been the only Congressional Democrat to not endorse Biden, endorsing Palin in early October of 2024, and the two were considered political allies despite their cross-party affiliations and political differences.

On November 20, Palin unveiled three more nominations, this time for the positions of Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Health and Human Services and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

For Secretary of Agriculture, Palin nominated Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate. Pate was considered a surprise nominee, and a sign that the department would not be a priority in a Palin Administration.

For Secretary of Health and Human Services, Palin nominated Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT), a sign that she intended to maintain Obamacare in some form. Romney, the original author of the plan that would become Obamacare, surprised many by agreeing to accept the position, rather than remain in the Senate (though polling would leak shortly afterwards that showed Romney trailing by over twenty points to two undeclared GOP challengers in the primary in 2024).

For Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Palin nominated New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell. Cantrell was expected to have some difficulty getting through a Republican Senate, but moderates like Lisa Murkowski (and Romney if her nomination was taken up before his) were expected to get her through.

On December 4, her primary financial team was announced. Palin announced that the Small Business Administration and Office of Management and Budget would be downgraded from Cabinet Rank, leaving her financial team cabinet appointees as the Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor and Secretary of the Treasury.

At the Treasury Department, Palin surprised observers by announcing she would retain Janet Yellen, at least for the first year of her first term, noting that Yellen had singlehandedly prevented the United States from falling into a full-blown recession over the past year and a half.

For Secretary of Commerce, Palin nominated Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. Bezos was expected to have a rocky road to confirmation, and Palin made it clear that a blind trust would not be enough, that Bezos would have to outright sell Amazon and all other business assets before taking office, though that seemed unlikely to appease some Democrats.

For Secretary of Labor, Palin nominated former Bush Administration Deputy Secretary of Labor Howard Radzely. Radzely was not expected to get much pushback from the Senate.

The final round of cabinet nominations from Palin took place on December 14, and was focused on Foreign and Defense policy.

Palin announced that the position of Director of National Intelligence would no longer be Cabinet Rank, instead, announcing that Vice President Haley's Chief Of Staff would be accorded Cabinet Rank alongside her own Chief of Staff.

Palin also named her Chief of Staff on this day, choosing former Secretary of Labor and Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao.

For the position of UN Ambassador, former Ambassador to Russia and Utah Governor Jr, was nominated by Palin. Huntsman is considered one of the Republican Party's top foreign policy experts, and was widely considered a likely nominee, either for this position or for Secretary of State.

For Secretary of Homeland Security, Palin nominated Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach. Kobach's nomination is considered Palin's attempt to give an olive to the far-right of the Republican Party, a constituency she once was a part of, but did not campaign with during the election.

For Attorney General, Palin nominated Ted Cruz. Cruz, who has just lost reelection this past year to Colin Allred, is an unpopular Senator, and both he and Palin will be betting on partisanship carrying the nomination through.

For Secretary of Defense, Palin has nominated retired Admiral William McRaven. McRaven is expected to easily breeze through confirmation.

For Secretary of State, Palin has nominated Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL). Rubio is expected to be confirmed, but the special election to replace him could be competitive,.

[NewYorkExpress]

Over the final two months of 2024, the international stage was what took the headlines. The war between Russia and Ukraine had ground on for almost two years with no resolution, and finally, on November 21, 2023, a peace treaty was reached between Russia and Ukraine, which was essentially a total surrender by Ukraine. The Ukrainians, which had lost more soldiers then they could realistically replace, surrendered all territory to Russia. Their government, and all local officials, and any civilians opposed to being part of the Russian State, were given thirty days to leave the country from the date of the signing of the treaty in Kyiv. President Zelensky would be allowed to remain, as Putin had agreed to appoint him as the inaugural Governor of the Ukrainian Oblast, and the Russian Government would take responsibility for paying for and cleaning up all war damages in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, an era ended in Cuba, as Raul Castro died at 93. While Cuba had not come up often on the campaign trail, many observers thought Palin's victory and the impending appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State meant that even with both Castro brothers now dead (Fidel had died in 2016), the United States's thaw with Cuba would be well and truly done.

The other major headline making news internationally was that following ongoing anti-gay chants at games by fans, both at the 2023 Gold Cup (notably against both Costa Rica in group play, and against the United States in the final), and at the 2024 Olympics in Paris (most notably in the group stage against Brazil), Mexico had been stripped of their co-hosting duties in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Some of the games would be moved to the United States (specifically, the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles and Lambeau Field in Green Bay) and others would be moved to Canada (specifically, IG Field in Winnipeg and BC Place in Vancouver). Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, elected in July of 2024, condemned the decision by FIFA, saying it was unfair to Mexico's fans who had spent years waiting for the event. FIFA President Gianni Infantino escalated the feud, revealing that he had resisted demands from gay rights groups to not only strip Mexico of hosting duties, but bar Mexico from qualifying for multiple World Cups.

Meanwhile, following Iran's official withdrawal from the nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama Administration in October 2024 (Al Jazeera anchor Elizabeth Puranam openly asked on air "what took them so long?"), the Israeli Government, with tacit support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, launched an ambitious invasion and bombing campaign of Iran, designed to permanently remove the Iranian Government and install a regime, if not friendly to Israel, than at least not outwardly hostile. Supreme Leader Ali Khameni was killed in an air strike on November 29, and rather than risk the invasion of almost the entire IDF, President Ebrahim Raisi chose to surrender.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Raisi, the commander of the Quds force, Esmail Qaani, all senior military officials, and all senior clerics executed, usually without trial (except for the clerics, who received rigged show trials on Iranian soil, conducted by Israeli military officials throughout the month of December). Once this was done, the Israeli Government with input from surviving Iranian officials wrote a new constitution, modeled after the United States's with elements of the old legal code in relation to religious authorities (The United States's first amendment, upon recommendation from the Iranians helping to write the document, did not exist here-Islam remained the state religion, and freedom of religion now only applied to different sects of Islam, as the Israeli military's last task would be helping all non-Muslims out of Iran.). The new constitution was put to a vote and ratified, on January 1, and following this former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was sworn in as the new President under the new constitution, with former Tehran Mayor Pirouz Hanachi named Vice President.

[Enduro]

Over the final two months of 2024, the international stage was what took the headlines. The war between Russia and Ukraine had ground on for almost two years with no resolution, and finally, on November 21, 2023, a peace treaty was reached between Russia and Ukraine, which was essentially a total surrender by Ukraine. The Ukrainians, which had lost more soldiers then they could realistically replace, surrendered all territory to Russia. Their government, and all local officials, and any civilians opposed to being part of the Russian State, were given thirty days to leave the country from the date of the signing of the treaty in Kyiv. President Zelensky would be allowed to remain, as Putin had agreed to appoint him as the inaugural Governor of the Ukrainian Oblast, and the Russian Government would take responsibility for paying for and cleaning up all war damages in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, an era ended in Cuba, as Raul Castro died at 93. While Cuba had not come up often on the campaign trail, many observers thought Palin's victory and the impending appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State meant that even with both Castro brothers now dead (Fidel had died in 2016), the United States's thaw with Cuba would be well and truly done.

The other major headline making news internationally was that following ongoing anti-gay chants at games by fans, both at the 2023 Gold Cup (notably against both Costa Rica in group play, and against the United States in the final), and at the 2024 Olympics in Paris (most notably in the group stage against Brazil), Mexico had been stripped of their co-hosting duties in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Some of the games would be moved to the United States (specifically, the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles and Lambeau Field in Green Bay) and others would be moved to Canada (specifically, IG Field in Winnipeg and BC Place in Vancouver). Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, elected in July of 2024, condemned the decision by FIFA, saying it was unfair to Mexico's fans who had spent years waiting for the event. FIFA President Gianni Infantino escalated the feud, revealing that he had resisted demands from gay rights groups to not only strip Mexico of hosting duties, but bar Mexico from qualifying for multiple World Cups.

Meanwhile, following Iran's official withdrawal from the nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama Administration in October 2024 (Al Jazeera anchor Elizabeth Puranam openly asked on air "what took them so long?"), the Israeli Government, with tacit support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, launched an ambitious invasion and bombing campaign of Iran, designed to permanently remove the Iranian Government and install a regime, if not friendly to Israel, than at least not outwardly hostile. Supreme Leader Ali Khameni was killed in an air strike on November 29, and rather than risk the invasion of almost the entire IDF, President Ebrahim Raisi chose to surrender.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Raisi, the commander of the Quds force, Esmail Qaani, all senior military officials, and all senior clerics executed, usually without trial (except for the clerics, who received rigged show trials on Iranian soil, conducted by Israeli military officials throughout the month of December). Once this was done, the Israeli Government with input from surviving Iranian officials wrote a new constitution, modeled after the United States's with elements of the old legal code in relation to religious authorities (The United States's first amendment, upon recommendation from the Iranians helping to write the document, did not exist here-Islam remained the state religion, and freedom of religion now only applied to different sects of Islam, as the Israeli military's last task would be helping all non-Muslims out of Iran.). The new constitution was put to a vote and ratified, on January 1, and following this former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was sworn in as the new President under the new constitution, with former Tehran Mayor Pirouz Hanachi named Vice President.

You lost me here