If President Biden Wins Re-Election in 2024, Who Do the GOP Pick to Run in 2028?

[Frodo]

This is assuming that Vice-President Kamala Harris is the nominee. 

[BigVic]

De Santis

[Frodo]

De Santis

Even after being mauled by Trump in his first go-around in 2024? 

[Red Wall]

De Santis

Even after being mauled by Trump in his first go-around in 2024? 

Yes, he would be their biggest national name without Trump and the GOP has trotted former primary losers multiple times: Reagan, HW, McCain, Romney.

[ShadowRocket]

Assuming he lost the nomination to Trump in 2024, I could see the old GOP tradition of the runner up from the previous primary winning the nomination on their next try returning with DeSantis.

Glenn Youngkin is the other serious possibility I think.

I definitely think there'd be a push to nominate someone with a moderate or soft veneer after another Trump defeat so I doubt it'd be someone like Hawley or Cruz.

[WestVegeta]

If Trump loses to Biden in 2024 and DeSantis is rendered radioactive by a bruising primary, or if DeSantis loses to Biden in the 2024 general election, the Republicans are gonna have to look elsewhere, away from Trumpism and its softer variants.

I think the Republicans (well, those of them who don't implode and start trying to go full rebellion) will try to go further in on that "multiracial working class" thing and push for a conservatism that looks something like European Christian Democracy. Spencer Cox may be a good pick. Tim Scott, too. Maybe Joe Lombardo?

[morgieb]

Depends on who he beat in 2024.

If it was Trump, probably DeSantis especially if he pushed Trump all the way in the primary.

If DeSantis was the nominee or he crashed and burned early....trickier. Youngkin might be a good chance if he can keep his name in the headlights after 2025. Maybe Rubio could make a comeback? It feels like a lot of their better known candidates are either too toxic or feel like they're tied to a too different tradition to win.

[President Johnson]

Maybe J.D. Vance?

[Frodo]

If Trump loses to Biden in 2024 and DeSantis is rendered radioactive by a bruising primary, or if DeSantis loses to Biden in the 2024 general election, the Republicans are gonna have to look elsewhere, away from Trumpism and its softer variants.

I think the Republicans (well, those of them who don't implode and start trying to go full rebellion) will try to go further in on that "multiracial working class" thing and push for a conservatism that looks something like European Christian Democracy. Spencer Cox may be a good pick. Tim Scott, too. Maybe Joe Lombardo?

Senator Tim Scott is a good choice for sure.  Another would be Gov. Brian Kemp. 

[Ferguson97]

If Biden beats Trump in 2024, then it's DeSantis.

If Biden beats DeSantis in 2024, then I have no clue. They would have to do some serious introspection of their 'post-Trump rising star' falls flat on his face.

[Skill and Chance]

A relatively young non-Trumpy conservative who had an impressive win during the Biden years.  Youngkin comes to mind.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Against who? If he wins re-election against Trump, I think someone DeSantis-adjacent (but probably not DeSantis himself) would take the mantle of non-Trump conservatism in 2028. If Biden wins re-election against DeSantis, there would be a huge shift in the GOP that can't really be predicted right now, because RDS is basically the GOP's best hope at this point

[Schiff for Senate]

De Santis

Even after being mauled by Trump in his first go-around in 2024? 

Yes, he would be their biggest national name without Trump and the GOP has trotted former primary losers multiple times: Reagan, HW, McCain, Romney.

Don’t forget Bob Dole. He was the runner-up in ‘88 and the nominee in 1996.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's possible we didn't even hear of this person yet? Who heard of Obama in 2002?

[President Johnson]

If Biden beats Trump in 2024, then it's DeSantis.

If Biden beats DeSantis in 2024, then I have no clue. They would have to do some serious introspection of their 'post-Trump rising star' falls flat on his face.

If Biden beats Trump, DeSantis still needs to find a way to stay relevant beyond his term as governor. He'd for sure face some stiff competition in 2027, when he starts running a 2028 campaign.

[Ferguson97]

It's possible we didn't even hear of this person yet? Who heard of Obama in 2002?

This got me curious, what were future nominees up to 6 years beforehand

2020-->2014: Vice President Joe Biden / Businessman Donald Trump
2016-->2010: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Businessman Donald Trump
2012-->2006: US Senator Barack Obama / Governor Mitt Romney
2008-->2002: State Senator Barack Obama / Senator John McCain
2004-->1998: Senator John Kerry / Governor George W. Bush
2000-->1994: Vice President Al Gore / Gubernatorial nominee/son of ex-President, George W. Bush
1996-->1990: Governor Bill Clinton / Senator Bob Dole
1992-->1986: Governor Bill Clinton / Vice President George H. W. Bush

So it seems for the most part that future nominees are nationally-known figures 6 years out from the election, with the notable exception of Barack Obama in 2008. Even Trump, who nobody would have predicted as the Republican nominee in 2010 or even 2014, was still a household name.

So it would seem that Obama is the exception to the rule.

[Agonized-Statism]

Josh Hawley?

[Utah Neolib]

Josh Hawley?

He just really doesn’t seem like it to me. His star has probably already burned out and he probably becomes a senate neophyte. He just doesn’t come off as charismatic or has the ability to win a primary and an election.

[President Johnson]

It's possible we didn't even hear of this person yet? Who heard of Obama in 2002?

This got me curious, what were future nominees up to 6 years beforehand

2020-->2014: Vice President Joe Biden / Businessman Donald Trump
2016-->2010: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Businessman Donald Trump
2012-->2006: US Senator Barack Obama / Governor Mitt Romney
2008-->2002: State Senator Barack Obama / Senator John McCain
2004-->1998: Senator John Kerry / Governor George W. Bush
2000-->1994: Vice President Al Gore / Gubernatorial nominee/son of ex-President, George W. Bush
1996-->1990: Governor Bill Clinton / Senator Bob Dole
1992-->1986: Governor Bill Clinton / Vice President George H. W. Bush

So it seems for the most part that future nominees are nationally-known figures 6 years out from the election, with the notable exception of Barack Obama in 2008. Even Trump, who nobody would have predicted as the Republican nominee in 2010 or even 2014, was still a household name.

So it would seem that Obama is the exception to the rule.

Yeah, Obama was the exception here. I think Mohamed may have meant just the general public instead of this forum. It could very well be someone who's relatively known in this forum, but has low name ID across the US at this moment.

[Mr. Smith]

It's possible we didn't even hear of this person yet? Who heard of Obama in 2002?

This got me curious, what were future nominees up to 6 years beforehand

2020-->2014: Vice President Joe Biden / Businessman Donald Trump
2016-->2010: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Businessman Donald Trump
2012-->2006: US Senator Barack Obama / Governor Mitt Romney
2008-->2002: State Senator Barack Obama / Senator John McCain
2004-->1998: Senator John Kerry / Governor George W. Bush
2000-->1994: Vice President Al Gore / Gubernatorial nominee/son of ex-President, George W. Bush
1996-->1990: Governor Bill Clinton / Senator Bob Dole
1992-->1986: Governor Bill Clinton / Vice President George H. W. Bush

So it seems for the most part that future nominees are nationally-known figures 6 years out from the election, with the notable exception of Barack Obama in 2008. Even Trump, who nobody would have predicted as the Republican nominee in 2010 or even 2014, was still a household name.

So it would seem that Obama is the exception to the rule.

1970-1976: Fmr. State Senator Jimmy Carter / Representative Gerald Ford...just saying

[TDAS04]

DeSantis, if he’s smart enough to stay out of 2024.

[Pres Mike]

It's possible we didn't even hear of this person yet? Who heard of Obama in 2002?

This got me curious, what were future nominees up to 6 years beforehand

2020-->2014: Vice President Joe Biden / Businessman Donald Trump
2016-->2010: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Businessman Donald Trump
2012-->2006: US Senator Barack Obama / Governor Mitt Romney
2008-->2002: State Senator Barack Obama / Senator John McCain
2004-->1998: Senator John Kerry / Governor George W. Bush
2000-->1994: Vice President Al Gore / Gubernatorial nominee/son of ex-President, George W. Bush
1996-->1990: Governor Bill Clinton / Senator Bob Dole
1992-->1986: Governor Bill Clinton / Vice President George H. W. Bush

So it seems for the most part that future nominees are nationally-known figures 6 years out from the election, with the notable exception of Barack Obama in 2008. Even Trump, who nobody would have predicted as the Republican nominee in 2010 or even 2014, was still a household name.

So it would seem that Obama is the exception to the rule.

1970-1976: Fmr. State Senator Jimmy Carter / Representative Gerald Ford...just saying

Lol, no one would have expected that matchup. I wonder who people expected in 1970. Probably Ted Kennedy for the Democrats or Ed Muskie. Even Humphrey?

Republicans I truly have no idea. Agnew wasn't seen as a good choice and John Connerlly hadn't switched parties yet. Perhaps Rockerfeller?

[Pres Mike]

It's possible we didn't even hear of this person yet? Who heard of Obama in 2002?

This got me curious, what were future nominees up to 6 years beforehand

2020-->2014: Vice President Joe Biden / Businessman Donald Trump
2016-->2010: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Businessman Donald Trump
2012-->2006: US Senator Barack Obama / Governor Mitt Romney
2008-->2002: State Senator Barack Obama / Senator John McCain
2004-->1998: Senator John Kerry / Governor George W. Bush
2000-->1994: Vice President Al Gore / Gubernatorial nominee/son of ex-President, George W. Bush
1996-->1990: Governor Bill Clinton / Senator Bob Dole
1992-->1986: Governor Bill Clinton / Vice President George H. W. Bush

So it seems for the most part that future nominees are nationally-known figures 6 years out from the election, with the notable exception of Barack Obama in 2008. Even Trump, who nobody would have predicted as the Republican nominee in 2010 or even 2014, was still a household name.

So it would seem that Obama is the exception to the rule.

1. I assumed Biden won in 2016 and had an awesome first term. Most Republicans don't run and they Trump is a joke canidate

2. Hillary is the obvious choice. I assume She is polling 10-15% and most Republicans don't run

3. This one makes the most sense. There was already Obama talk in 2006. Mitt Romney was planning to run in 2008. I assume Romney came 2nd in the 2008 primaries.

4. I could see McCain. WhO iS oBaMa?

5. I could see this. Dubya was seen as the de facto next President since 1997 and Kerry was a prominent senator.

6. I could see this. When Dubya was elected in 1994, there was already president talk

[Vosem]

It depends on what the signature accomplishments or defeats of Biden’s second term will be (and possibly also on cultural trends outside of Biden’s control). Those who are alienated by these events, who aren’t necessarily Republicans in 2022, will decide the 2028 nominee; very few would’ve called Trump as a GOP nominee in 2010, or Obama in 2002.

Structurally, when only one party has a primary but not the other, the outcome tends to be more moderate, because there is actually a substantial fraction of people who always turn out no matter what in a competitive primary, and these people are not extremists. It is unsurprising that Sanders did worse the second time around, or that Cruz was stronger than Santorum. If Democrats do not have a contested primary in 2024, Republicans will have an unusually moderate primary electorate; in 2028 they will go back to a more extreme one.

Note that the Republican primary is also fundamentally less predictable than the Democratic primary because of its rules. The Democrats use proportional representation, so to win a candidate basically has to cross the support of 50% of the party; this makes winners predictable and discourages negative campaigning. Republicans have far more winner-take-all contests, and once someone begins winning they are very hard to stop; in practice the last few primaries have therefore been a “race to 35%”; once someone has 35% in a multi-candidate field they are very difficult to defeat. (Majorities in polling opposed both Romney and Trump through to the day their main opponents dropped out!) This encourages much more negative, fratricidal campaigning, but also means that the emergence of an unexpected candidate — far to the left or right or whatever else of the party mainstream — is much more plausible than on the Democratic side. (2024 looks like it probably won’t be hugely multi-candidate, but most primaries probably will be moving forward, so this is something to keep in mind.)

[Zedonathin2020]

I’m currently predicting Hawley, but maybe Youngkin also might have a chance