YouGov/Yahoo national: DeSantis +7 over Trump

[Roll Roons]

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/11/11/how-americans-feel-about-prospect-divided-congress

1500 adults, conducted November 9-11.

I think the midterm results may well have been the final tipping point.

[Medal506]

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/11/11/how-americans-feel-about-prospect-divided-congress

1500 adults, conducted November 9-11.

I think the midterm results may well have been the final tipping point.

I am hoping Trump continues to go down in the polls. Jeb started out as the favorite for 2016 two years before the primaries and then fell to last place before Iowa even started.

[Alben Barkley]

I hope this lasts and isn’t just a temporary reaction to the midterms.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If Trump looks weak then who else jumps in for 2024? My hot take is that the chances of a candidate who is neither Trump nor DeSantis is being underrated right now.

[Figueira]

If Trump looks weak then who else jumps in for 2024? My hot take is that the chances of a candidate who is neither Trump nor DeSantis is being underrated right now.

Agreed. I'm still not convinced that DeSantis isn't another Scott Walker.

[oldtimer]

If Trump looks weak then who else jumps in for 2024? My hot take is that the chances of a candidate who is neither Trump nor DeSantis is being underrated right now.

Who?

Lets consider Governors.

Hogan, Sununu, and DeWine will each do a Kasich get 3-4% and drop out.

Sununu couldn't even rig the N.H. primaries for his favourite candidates.
DeWine had trouble winning his own primary even unopposed.
Hogan is so hated by Republicans he was chased out.

Lombardo would win Nevada, but he doesn't have the national reputation to win IA or NH.

DeSantis has trouble with the calendar, but if Cruz got Iowa so can he, at which point NH and NV will be the key.

Now lets consider Senators.

Is there any well known Senator who did't crash and burn in the 2016 primaries ?

McConnell ? He would even lose Kentucky in a primary.
Scott ? There is no room for two candidates from Florida.
Vance ? Not after that dreadfull performance.

All well known GOP Senators are too old or known losers on a national level.

On top of that 2024 is now considered not winnable for Republicans at the present, so no heavyweights will run until the political climate changes against Democrats.

We will know by Christmas 2023.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Just because politicians will likely crash and burn in no way means they won’t run. Did you miss the last few presidential primaries?

[Independents for George Santos]

Normally I'd be bullish on DeSantis (if only out of hope for the end of Trump) but polls at this time in 2014 showed Jeb and Romney exchanging leads. A lot can happen in a year with two 800-pound Gorillas going at it.

[DaleCooper]

I hope this lasts and isn’t just a temporary reaction to the midterms.

It all depends on what the conservative propaganda machine decides to do. A lot of people made their careers off of publicly worshipping Trump and his image. They may not be willing to risk changing course.

[Ljube]

I am going to watch Watters, Tucker, Hannity and Ingram tomorrow to see if anything has changed.

[Spectator]

It really comes down to the Fox News primary, which I don’t think will want to risk giving up their share of Trumpists if he throws his weight behind OAN or whatever garbage comes up. Anyway, still Likely Trump. This is a high water point for DeSantis in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday.

[TimeUnit2027]

If Trump looks weak then who else jumps in for 2024? My hot take is that the chances of a candidate who is neither Trump nor DeSantis is being underrated right now.

Who?

Lets consider Governors.

Hogan, Sununu, and DeWine will each do a Kasich get 3-4% and drop out.

Sununu couldn't even rig the N.H. primaries for his favourite candidates.
DeWine had trouble winning his own primary even unopposed.
Hogan is so hated by Republicans he was chased out.

Lombardo would win Nevada, but he doesn't have the national reputation to win IA or NH.

DeSantis has trouble with the calendar, but if Cruz got Iowa so can he, at which point NH and NV will be the key.

Now lets consider Senators.

Is there any well known Senator who did't crash and burn in the 2016 primaries ?

McConnell ? He would even lose Kentucky in a primary.
Scott ? There is no room for two candidates from Florida.
Vance ? Not after that dreadfull performance.

All well known GOP Senators are too old or known losers on a national level.

On top of that 2024 is now considered not winnable for Republicans at the present, so no heavyweights will run until the political climate changes against Democrats.

We will know by Christmas 2023.

We could always try Corey Stapleton. Very strong candidate(irony)

[kwabbit]

It really comes down to the Fox News primary, which I don’t think will want to risk giving up their share of Trumpists if he throws his weight behind OAN or whatever garbage comes up. Anyway, still Likely Trump. This is a high water point for DeSantis in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday.

The base is so loyal to Trump because of Fox News. Trump started out as divisive within the party. It was only after years of right wing media promoting fierce loyalty to Trump that he gained his fanatical support. Trump didn’t become very popular within the party until 2018; he had mediocre approval ratings within the party during the 2016 campaign and during his presidency until the midterm campaign started.

I doubt Trump would be able to seriously damage Fox viewership. It’s difficult to start a new network. I am also confident in the ability of Fox to hand DeSantis the nomination if they really want to. Whether Trump takes the party down with him is another question. Partisans are much more dependent on partisan media than they were in 2016. The power of Fox in the party is increased and if they are unified behind DeSantis (unlike in 2016 when the non-Trump options were split five ways) they would be able to sway a majority of the party. They have already elevated DeSantis to a position near Trump quickly.

[oldtimer]

It really comes down to the Fox News primary, which I don’t think will want to risk giving up their share of Trumpists if he throws his weight behind OAN or whatever garbage comes up. Anyway, still Likely Trump. This is a high water point for DeSantis in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday.

The base is so loyal to Trump because of Fox News. Trump started out as divisive within the party. It was only after years of right wing media promoting fierce loyalty to Trump that he gained his fanatical support. Trump didn’t become very popular within the party until 2018; he had mediocre approval ratings within the party during the 2016 campaign and during his presidency until the midterm campaign started.

I doubt Trump would be able to seriously damage Fox viewership. It’s difficult to start a new network. I am also confident in the ability of Fox to hand DeSantis the nomination if they really want to. Whether Trump takes the party down with him is another question. Partisans are much more dependent on partisan media than they were in 2016. The power of Fox in the party is increased and if they are unified behind DeSantis (unlike in 2016 when the non-Trump options were split five ways) they would be able to sway a majority of the party. They have already elevated DeSantis to a position near Trump quickly.

Republican voters love Trump because he is the only well known figure that publicly fights Democrats.

Republican voters always hate those who don't (Congressional Republican Leaders, Liberal Repubican Governors).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It really comes down to the Fox News primary, which I don’t think will want to risk giving up their share of Trumpists if he throws his weight behind OAN or whatever garbage comes up. Anyway, still Likely Trump. This is a high water point for DeSantis in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday.

The base is so loyal to Trump because of Fox News. Trump started out as divisive within the party. It was only after years of right wing media promoting fierce loyalty to Trump that he gained his fanatical support. Trump didn’t become very popular within the party until 2018; he had mediocre approval ratings within the party during the 2016 campaign and during his presidency until the midterm campaign started.

I doubt Trump would be able to seriously damage Fox viewership. It’s difficult to start a new network. I am also confident in the ability of Fox to hand DeSantis the nomination if they really want to. Whether Trump takes the party down with him is another question. Partisans are much more dependent on partisan media than they were in 2016. The power of Fox in the party is increased and if they are unified behind DeSantis (unlike in 2016 when the non-Trump options were split five ways) they would be able to sway a majority of the party. They have already elevated DeSantis to a position near Trump quickly.

Republican voters love Trump because he is the only well known figure that publicly fights Democrats.

Republican voters always hate those who don't (Congressional Republican Leaders, Liberal Repubican Governors).

They also love people who deliver results.

There was a time, when Bush was adored by the GOP base, and lost it once the party started to collapse under his leadership.