How would you vote and what would be the results of this nationwide ballot referendum?
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  How would you vote and what would be the results of this nationwide ballot referendum?
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Poll
Question: What would be the results of this nationwide ballot referendum on abortion?

YES: Abortion will be banned in all cases, including rape or incest, with the sole exception of saving the life of the mother.

NO: Abortion will be legal in all circumstance
#1
I vote yes/yes wins
 
#2
I vote yes/no wins
 
#3
I vote no/no wins
 
#4
I vote no/yes wins
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 80

Author Topic: How would you vote and what would be the results of this nationwide ballot referendum?  (Read 1773 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: November 11, 2022, 03:07:06 PM »

Nationwide ballot referendum. How do you vote and what's the outcome?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2022, 04:36:55 PM »

We don't, of course, ever have nationwide referenda on anything, so your hypothetical is just plain fantasy.

Wow Mark I had no idea we didn't actually have national referendums. Thank you for this valuable contribution to advance the discussion. Next time I'll think twice before posting a hypothetical scenario on a politics/elections forum.
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progressive85
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2022, 04:48:54 PM »

I do wonder what the state by state breakdown of this would be.  The wording on these things is everything... you could put up the same issue and word it 2 different ways and get 2 different outcomes from the same exact electorate.

I would say that most of the states as of post-Dobbs 2022 would vote against, just based on what happened Tuesday.
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somerandomth
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2022, 09:03:38 AM »

Yeah I think this would probably be a fairly comfortable victory for No based on the midterm results
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2022, 02:40:29 PM »

Probably option 3. But you realize this is not how referendums work, right? Almost always, I believe, the “No” option means the status quo, it means no changes to the current system. It’s very rare where a referendum makes a dramatic change no matter which way the vote goes. It  would be one referendum on banning abortion (with a yes win banning abortion and a no win leaving the status quo intact) and a separate one to make it completely legal (where a yes vote would do so, and a no vote would leave things as they currently stand). If that’s the way this was presented, by the way, I would vote No on both and I believe a majority would vote the same way on both referendums (what would be highly interesting is if both referendums somehow passed - of course, it would be next to impossible that that actually happened, but if both referendums were voted on simultaneously, on the same ballot, and both were approved by the voters, what would happen? Would they simply “cancel each other out?”)
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2022, 02:35:50 AM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2022, 06:46:16 AM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.

Well it depends on how gun control is phrased. Something like 'eliminate the 2nd amendment' probably fails by at least 65-35, while something like 'institute background checks for gun sales' probably passes by double digits.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2022, 02:25:56 PM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.

Well it depends on how gun control is phrased. Something like 'eliminate the 2nd amendment' probably fails by at least 65-35, while something like 'institute background checks for gun sales' probably passes by double digits.

'Institute background checks for gun sales' has run behind normal Democratic numbers in a bunch of states (NV and ME come to mind); I suspect it would be a narrow loser. (OTOH, affirmative action has run like 40 points behind Democratic numbers). On the still other hand, an abortion referendum can easily run like 30 points ahead of Republican numbers, as KS and WV demonstrated recently. Marijuana runs well ahead of Democrats, but other drugs run well behind them; I kind of suspect a decade from now some form of general drug decriminalization would run at about 50/50 nationally.

Legitimately a toughie. Maybe taxes very explicitly meant to help some very sympathetic constituency, like teachers or the military? Taxes for even kinda-sympathetic constituencies, or where who they're targeted at is emphasized (even if that's a seemingly-unpopular group like billionaires or whatever) go down hard, but certain things to tend to match general partisanship. (On the hyper-local level, even to exceed it, and at the state level this would've been true even 10-15 years ago, but not really so much anymore).
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2022, 07:00:27 PM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.

Well it depends on how gun control is phrased. Something like 'eliminate the 2nd amendment' probably fails by at least 65-35, while something like 'institute background checks for gun sales' probably passes by double digits.

'Institute background checks for gun sales' has run behind normal Democratic numbers in a bunch of states (NV and ME come to mind); I suspect it would be a narrow loser. (OTOH, affirmative action has run like 40 points behind Democratic numbers). On the still other hand, an abortion referendum can easily run like 30 points ahead of Republican numbers, as KS and WV demonstrated recently. Marijuana runs well ahead of Democrats, but other drugs run well behind them; I kind of suspect a decade from now some form of general drug decriminalization would run at about 50/50 nationally.

Legitimately a toughie. Maybe taxes very explicitly meant to help some very sympathetic constituency, like teachers or the military? Taxes for even kinda-sympathetic constituencies, or where who they're targeted at is emphasized (even if that's a seemingly-unpopular group like billionaires or whatever) go down hard, but certain things to tend to match general partisanship. (On the hyper-local level, even to exceed it, and at the state level this would've been true even 10-15 years ago, but not really so much anymore).

Depends if it is phrased as a tax. If it is, it probably runs well behind what it might have if it was characterized as a program. For instance, MA's 4% tax hike on the rich passed by the same margin as Colorado's 'free school meals' referendum, despite MA being much to the left of CO.
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TPIG
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2022, 02:11:23 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2022, 02:17:33 AM by TPIG »

I'd enthusiastically vote yes, but would certainly expect no to win. If voters in deep red states like Kansas and Kentucky won't vote to amend their constitutions to say there's no right to abortion, I don't see much hope.

When push comes to shove, most Americans really are married to the idea that abortion is an acceptable byproduct of "sexual liberation". Quite telling that over 70% of votes here would support absolutely no limits on the procedure.
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Pericles
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2022, 04:06:52 AM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.

Well it depends on how gun control is phrased. Something like 'eliminate the 2nd amendment' probably fails by at least 65-35, while something like 'institute background checks for gun sales' probably passes by double digits.

'Institute background checks for gun sales' has run behind normal Democratic numbers in a bunch of states (NV and ME come to mind); I suspect it would be a narrow loser. (OTOH, affirmative action has run like 40 points behind Democratic numbers). On the still other hand, an abortion referendum can easily run like 30 points ahead of Republican numbers, as KS and WV demonstrated recently. Marijuana runs well ahead of Democrats, but other drugs run well behind them; I kind of suspect a decade from now some form of general drug decriminalization would run at about 50/50 nationally.

Legitimately a toughie. Maybe taxes very explicitly meant to help some very sympathetic constituency, like teachers or the military? Taxes for even kinda-sympathetic constituencies, or where who they're targeted at is emphasized (even if that's a seemingly-unpopular group like billionaires or whatever) go down hard, but certain things to tend to match general partisanship. (On the hyper-local level, even to exceed it, and at the state level this would've been true even 10-15 years ago, but not really so much anymore).

Depends if it is phrased as a tax. If it is, it probably runs well behind what it might have if it was characterized as a program. For instance, MA's 4% tax hike on the rich passed by the same margin as Colorado's 'free school meals' referendum, despite MA being much to the left of CO.

Even if tax ended up as a 50-50 issue, it obviously has different voting coalitions to current partisanship and it isn't that divisive-voters care more about social issues.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2022, 11:01:28 PM »

Wouldn't participate in a false dichotomy, especially for such an important issue. 'No' wins though.
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MarkD
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« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2023, 07:14:06 AM »

We don't, of course, ever have nationwide referenda on anything, so your hypothetical is just plain fantasy.

Wow Mark I had no idea we didn't actually have national referendums. Thank you for this valuable contribution to advance the discussion. Next time I'll think twice before posting a hypothetical scenario on a politics/elections forum.

Glad I could help. Every time you post a question about a hypothetical scenario that is impossible to occur, I'll try to be there pointing it out for you.

BTW, my vote in the poll is option 3.
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Sirius_
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« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2023, 11:15:40 PM »

If an anti-abortion referendum can't pass in Kentucky, it isn't passing nationwide. Although some people may be reluctant to allow abortion in all circumstances, the voters would never ban it in all circumstances.
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2023, 06:37:23 PM »

Accidentally voted yes/yes. Meant to vote option 3. Of course I would prefer the Roe versus Wade trimester structure that made a first trimester abortion essentially legal in all circumstances, a second trimester abortion subject to notable restrictions as per casey, and a third trimester abortion potentially illegal state by state outside threats to the health of the mother and a nonviable pregnancy.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2023, 11:57:01 PM »

If an anti-abortion referendum can't pass in Kentucky, it isn't passing nationwide. Although some people may be reluctant to allow abortion in all circumstances, the voters would never ban it in all circumstances.

In fairness, I think Yes would have won this vote in Kentucky, but No would still unfortunately win nationwide.
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« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2023, 12:50:26 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2023, 01:09:48 PM by FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦 »

Abstain, but No might win
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« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2023, 06:44:52 PM »

No / No since there should be some exceptions for rape, deformity etc. before 120 days

Not sure why this poll was made, these are two of the most extreme options
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2023, 10:14:05 PM »

Not sure why this poll was made, these are two of the most extreme options

That's why I made it, I wanted to see what would happen if voters were forced into this extreme binary choice.
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2023, 08:49:07 PM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.

Well it depends on how gun control is phrased. Something like 'eliminate the 2nd amendment' probably fails by at least 65-35, while something like 'institute background checks for gun sales' probably passes by double digits.

States have literally conducted basically this exact referendum. Background checks are less popular than the Democratic Party, always, generally in ways that imply a national Republican victory (R+1 in the Nevada case, R+2 in the Maine case).

Yes, I know polling shows >80% of Americans support background checks, and sometimes >90%. But those aren't the Americans who vote.

My guess is background checks would lose a national referendum, but it would be very very close and they could win in principle. (Although I actually think that support for 'repealing the Second Amendment' might run ahead of 35% -- you sometimes see really maximalist gun-control referendums win in blue states, in a way that suggests to me something like that could well hit the low 40s.)
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shua
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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2023, 12:21:48 AM »

I do wonder if the US had a nationwide referendum, which question lead to a result closest to current partisanship and be the most divisive?

Gun control could end up as a 50-50 issue and match partisanship, but I'm not sure if it is the most divisive issue. Anything racial would be incredibly divisive but it would be hard to get a question that doesn't favor one side. After all, many moderate Democratic positions on it poll well but a question that leans too much to the 'abolish ICE' or 'defund the police' side would likely be a blowout the other way.

Well it depends on how gun control is phrased. Something like 'eliminate the 2nd amendment' probably fails by at least 65-35, while something like 'institute background checks for gun sales' probably passes by double digits.

States have literally conducted basically this exact referendum. Background checks are less popular than the Democratic Party, always, generally in ways that imply a national Republican victory (R+1 in the Nevada case, R+2 in the Maine case).

Yes, I know polling shows >80% of Americans support background checks, and sometimes >90%. But those aren't the Americans who vote.

My guess is background checks would lose a national referendum, but it would be very very close and they could win in principle. (Although I actually think that support for 'repealing the Second Amendment' might run ahead of 35% -- you sometimes see really maximalist gun-control referendums win in blue states, in a way that suggests to me something like that could well hit the low 40s.)

Issue of universal background checks comes down to the details. People support it in the abstract, but when faced with a particular proposal they often object to how it is going to be implemented.
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