AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT) (user search)
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  AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT) (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)  (Read 48238 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: November 24, 2022, 10:47:19 PM »

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

I think Sinema's issue is less about being "moderate" but moreso that she seems very disconnected and is unclear about where she stands. I think many see it as attention seeking or like being a thorn in Dems side for the sake of it.

If she could better articulate where she stands and what she supports, I would have less of an issue with her. But to me, she seems to lack any sort of clear values/beliefs.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2022, 08:03:54 PM »

FWIW I don't think she runs again and if she does she loses 70-30 in the primary. She's totally unwilling to adjust her strategy and she bet on Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs losing so she could say "I'm the only one who can win in AZ." Kelly winning by like 4.9 and Hobbs winning statewide against a candidate the GOP hailed as super strong makes it clear Dems don't need whatever she's doing to win in AZ.

Sinema has shown literally zero inclination to trim her sails or change course. She did this stuff straight for four years and has burned a lot of institutional bridges already, and she has zero constituency in AZ. The DSCC and Biden would sit on the sidelines, which alone is enough to doom her at this point.

Good point. With the way she's been acting, it doesn't seem like she really cares about her re-election prospects all that much and/or just has a very misguided view of what makes someone "electable" or not.

I do wonder on the inside though if she genuinely sees herself as a maverick or is just trying to stir the pot for the sake of it? I don't mind her bucking her own party, but unlike say McCain, she's never clear about where she stands on issues overall or what alternative solutions could be for something.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2022, 10:03:41 PM »

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

He won by double-digits. Of course, the non-Schweikert vote was split between two candidates and had it been consolidated, Schweikert most likely wouldn't have made it. He also seems to have ethical controversies surrounding him IMO, which would make him vulnerable in the GE (though I'm honestly not sure how much it'd really matter - it doesn't seem to impact the results in his House races very much, and it seems like something most people don't really remember or care too much about, though maybe the Democrats would slam him on it in a Senate race and make it an issue).

Of the entire AZ R delegation, the only one who wouldn't suck in a statewide GE would prolly be Ciscomani, but he's new, and good chance Dems knock him out come 2024.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2022, 11:19:05 PM »

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

He won by double-digits. Of course, the non-Schweikert vote was split between two candidates and had it been consolidated, Schweikert most likely wouldn't have made it. He also seems to have ethical controversies surrounding him IMO, which would make him vulnerable in the GE (though I'm honestly not sure how much it'd really matter - it doesn't seem to impact the results in his House races very much, and it seems like something most people don't really remember or care too much about, though maybe the Democrats would slam him on it in a Senate race and make it an issue).

Of the entire AZ R delegation, the only one who wouldn't suck in a statewide GE would prolly be Ciscomani, but he's new, and good chance Dems knock him out come 2024.

What about Lesko? Or Crane? Though I don't know much about either (especially Crane).

Nope. They’re both too far right and just don’t seem to be able to even make themselves appear competent these days.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2022, 09:52:46 PM »

Surprised no one has mentioned the level of weight that Katie Hobbs will now have in the primary. She was the successor to Sinema in the state legislature and Hobbs has spoken fondly of her in the past. I have to imagine her increased level of prominence as the Governor now could help Sinema were Hobbs to back her. Same with Kelly, but probably to a lesser extent since Governor is more visible.

Would Hobbs be considered a more moderate or mainstream Dem? To me it seems like she's ideologically near Kelly, slightly left of Sinema, but is just rlly chill as a person overall, at least in how she presents herself publicly.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2022, 11:38:14 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2022, 11:44:58 AM by ProgressiveModerate »

My main issue with Sinema isn’t about whether she’s progressive or moderate or an I caucusing with Ds, but just the fact she doesn’t seem to have a coherent ideology or set of values, or at least they change from day to day. Anytime she does a rare interview, she comes off as fake or scripted, and seems to want to fit this mold of “moderate hero” rather than just doing what she believes is right as a legislator.

I think some of the work she’s done on these bipartisan bills should be commended. She just needs to be more direct, and honestly she’s lost too much trust to the point where she isn’t going to get it back.

I actually feel like some of the things she says, specifically like that government needs to be more about working for the people than beating the other side is important, but she just goes about it all wrong and ends up being a hypocrite to her own ideas
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2022, 08:07:17 PM »

I think this is still a tossup because this just throws more uncertainty into an already uncertain race. I'd say if it was a more normal D v R matchup, Ds would likely have a slight edge.

There are many possibilities including:

-Sinema ultimately decides not to seek re-election after seeing the numbers and it ends up being a normal D v R matchup

-Sinema runs as a 3rd party, but sort of fades into oblivion and ends up not really being a spoiler and taking more than a few %

-Sinema runs a decently successful independent campaign enough to spoil the race either way. Which way really depends upon how she postures herself these next 2 years and who's votes she tries to gain

-If the national mood is not looking great, one of the major parties just decides to consolidate behind her like Dems did with Evan McMullin.

-Sinema ends up trying to make a play to be the "behind" Republican or Democrat and hope the party just lines up behind her because they have no better option.



I think my biggest worry is that the Dem establishment basically stays silent and allows her to split the Dem vote as more progressive organizations back the Dem. I think it'd still take a bit for folks like Kelly or Biden to outright campaign against her though we shall see.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2022, 01:37:55 AM »

Well, the takes about Sinema being a brilliant electoral juggernaut that Democrats needed to back in order to win sure aged well. Anyway, not only is it the case that a decently left-wing Democrat absolutely can win in Arizona if they run a good campaign, there’s something else that makes this saga so pathetic. As a progressive, I’ll acknowledge that Sinema could’ve been a “moderate hero” while not being nearly as obnoxious and attention-seeking, and would be in perfectly good shape for re-election. But no, she had to make a fool of herself and show unbelievably bad political instincts. Turns out that having abysmal approval ratings among members of your own party and going out of your way to piss them off doesn’t help your re-election prospects.

I'm not even sure if she knows what she's trying to accomplish.

What I really liked about her in her 2018 campaign was that she was pretty humble and chill, but otherwise a normal moderate D, and now she's just doing all these stunts and is very obviously trying to attract attention.

Here is the 2018 Senate debate. She just feels so different and like more genuine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKp8X8UY3mU
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2022, 01:46:07 AM »

One thing I think hurts Sinema in this case is the fact she was a social worker. I feel like that has def influenced her speaking style to make it very poised, relatively monotone, and generally calm. While generally this might be something that works in her benefit as I'd argue it did in 2018, when your unpopular politician who gets tons of media coverage, that sort of thing can really make you just seem so disconnected and robotic.

I've never heard Sinema really raise her voice or yell back and in a way I kind of want her to, which is messed up.

In many ways, Sinema is actually a very effective Senator and if she optic-ed herself differently, she could probably get away with still opposing the filibuster and stuff
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2022, 08:49:34 PM »

She's betting on Gallego and Finchem being nominated and then saying "look at the far left and far right" vote for a moderate instead! I think she absolutely could pull it off if she plays her cards right and plays for the moderates. She also has incumbency advantage which helps.

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.

And finally, how much of a microphone does the Media in AZ give Sinema? Do they paint her in a positive or negative light?

The closest recent example I can think to this situation would be AK-Sen 2010 where Lisa Murkowski squeeked to re-election in a write-in campaign after being defeated in the primary by a tea party R. But AK was a much smaller state, she had more of a local brand, and the seat was never seen as potentially competitive between the 2 major parties.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2022, 08:56:44 PM »

Part of it will probably depend upon the national "vibes". The worse things are, the more partisanship will kick in. It also depends upon how Gallego (or whoever the D is) ends up defining himself; by nature of primarying a moderate D incumbent from the left, he is going to be labeled a bunch of things that he probably doesn't want and will try and fight against.


Gallego ain't going to primary anybody. Sinema is an independent and can't run in the Democratic primary.

Srry I forgot lol, but the point still generally stands.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2023, 09:51:15 AM »

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.
She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

Not in a heavily federalized Senate race; 10% is prolly her ceiling. A lot of it will depend upon how she carves out her space though.

I wasn’t alive in 2016, but can anyone explain why Swing got such a high share; always confused me, especially since Kirkpatrick seemed fine.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2023, 08:51:14 PM »

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.
She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.
If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them
Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.



Ig it really depends upon how she defines herself in the Senate race (assuming she stays in till the end), specifically in determining what share of the vote she actually ends up with and who she takes more from.

Firstly, vote share will depend upon if she's actively on the airwaves as much as her 2 opponents and can actually define a corner for herself. She sorta has to convince the public she's viable because if people believe she has no shot, they'll revert to partisan corners in fear of "wasting their vote"

Sinema seems to change quite a lot, and while at face value I'd agree the Romney/McCain-Biden/Kelly types would be at the biggest risk, it really depends on Sinema who is very unpredictable.

For this reason, I'm calling this race a tossup cause there's so much uncertainty, and this is the type of situation where they'll be uncertainty till the end.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2023, 10:31:28 PM »

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.
She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.
If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them
Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.





Just found this which is quite interesting. Basically a lot of mayors around greater Pheonix saying positive things of Sinema. Most seem to represent swingy to red leaning outer suburbs and exurbs, and if I had to guess, prolly a mix of people who usually vote R except during 2020/2022 and mayors who held their nose and voted for Masters/Lake reluctantly.

Now just because they said nice things doesn't necessarily mean they will end up supporting or endorsing her formally, but still interesting and def goes along with your general theory.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2023, 01:57:12 AM »

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2023, 07:05:09 PM »

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

I don't agree; there's a lot of democratic senators who are relatively moderate or bipartisan.

Lets compare her to Manchin.

Someone like Manchin has a viable political reason & a backstory to make him sceptical of actions that hurt the coal industry.

Sinema has no valid reason to say fight for the carried interest loophole?!!Other than the fact that she was wooed by wall street. That's the reason I cannot stand her- it's identical to Joe Lieberman shooting down the public option for no obvious reason.

I think that's a fair point, and one of the main reasons I am still sometimes frustrated with Sinema.

However, at the end of the day AZ is still a swing state and in 2018, many saw her more-moderate campaign style as the only path to victory in the state. Just using moderates to win election and then either expect them to race back to the extremes and/or just kicking them out seems a bit wrong to me.

I think maybe what I'm forgetting in all this is that a politician can be all of bipartisan, effective, and corrupt.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2023, 07:46:52 PM »

Very skeptical that Sinema would approach 30% as an Independent:

The survey, which was conducted for Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC, tests out two different potential Republican candidates: conspiracy theorist Kari Lake, who claims she won the 2022 race for governor, and former Gov. Doug Ducey:

Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45

Gallego (D): 36, Lake (R): 36, Sinema (I-inc): 24

Gallego (D): 37, Ducey (R): 31, Sinema (I-inc): 27

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/1/2150565/-New-Arizona-poll-shows-Gallego-can-win-even-if-Sinema-runs-but-senator-can-still-hinder-his-chances

This poll seems quite sus for a variety of reasons.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2023, 11:52:24 PM »

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.
It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

This is an interesting question about Arizona - how large actually is this "traditionally Moderate-Conservative McCain" voting block many seem to talk about. Hobbs for instance was able to win on a pretty generic D campaign in 2018 against a normal R, only a 2% underperformance of Sinema who ran a very moderate campaign that aimed to appeal to these types of voters.

Even if this block is small, in most elections it could matter. I tend to believe that a large chunk of them might vote for Sinema if she was actually viable but know the real choice is between Gallego and whoever the R is. Who they choose from there depends upon how progressive Gallego is painted as (part of the reason I believe he needs to avoid making the difference between him and Sinema one of ideology), and who the R candidate is obviously.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2023, 09:08:30 PM »



Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

Also we're still over a year out; anyone who feels confident about how the dynamics of this very unique race will play out is kidding themselves. There's still a non-negligable chance Sinema drops out or the GOP finds a way to nominate someone normal (though both seem less likely than not at this point).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2023, 12:39:33 AM »



So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.
Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

Luckily taxes are by far the most important issue to the GOP and their donors…
Best case scenario for the GOP at this point is that Masters and Lake both run and split the crazy vote, allowing someone electable to win. But if one of them wins I could see some establishment types/donors going with Sinema. Probably won’t help her much though.

Yeah McConnell basically signalled he's gonna abandon Arizona and spend all the money in Pennsylvania lol.

He, Thune and Cornyn tried to recruit Sinema to party switch (even though she would have lost the primary) so they definitely prefer Sinema.

Do you think this affects Sinema's strategy (if she ultimately stays in till the end). Her choosing to try to target peeling off more moderate D voters vs more moderate R voters could make the difference even if she only gets like 5%.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2023, 09:37:36 PM »



If Lake ends up running, I wonder how much of her chances hinge on unaffiliated voters choosing to vote in the R primary. Remember, unaffiliated voters aren't neccesarily partisans at heart, so it could be theoretical possible some unaffiliated Dems try 4D chess and nominate her because she's the weakest. It's probably a pretty small pool of voters but could make the difference.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2023, 12:25:53 PM »

Is it a given that Lake will be the nominee if she runs.

Her primary win for 2022-Gov was pretty narrow, but even then she was only really facing 1 main primary challenger. The risk here for the GOP is if the "sane" vote is fractured between 2 or more candidates, allowing Lake to win with just 40% or smtg.
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