AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT) (user search)
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  AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT) (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)  (Read 48237 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: November 21, 2022, 10:40:55 AM »

I think people on this forum are all underestimating Sinema. 2 years in politics is super long.

The crazy thing is too that Sinema doesn't need to be this way. She can still do the whole "bipartisan work is important, etc." without being so off-putting to Dems. Mark Kelly just won by 5 points by still maintaining the "independent" mantle despite voting with Dems nearly all of the time. Arizona clearly doesn't have a problem with it. She's just making things worse for herself. But yeah, she can still turn this around if she stops being so obstructionist.

I do wonder about her involvement this year. I wonder if it was more of her not caring at all to help, or if they thought she'd be more of a hinderance? It does speak volumes though that she couldn't at least tweet a few times for Hobbs/Kelly or something. She didn't need to be by their side the whole time, but the fact that she did *nothing* it seems is pretty striking, and kinda shows that she's still refusing to be a team player.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2022, 10:36:53 AM »

For all the hate Sinema gets, she's a very effective legislator. I think she was the one who got Manchin on board with ARP; she helped negotiate the gun bill and the marriage bill. I think she's one of the only only Democrats who understands that the GOP isn't for the most part "obstructionist" but are, y'know, conservatives with different opinions than Democrats have. And that a lot of the establishment GOP would absolutely love to do bipartisan dealmaking but that you need to be reasonable. They were willing to cross the aisle on hot button issues like gay marriage and guns, and get nothing in return, because Sinema didn't ask for them to endorse the activist group position (like an assault weapons ban or transgender rights). Contrast that with Chris Murphy's approach of screaming about guns every year, making demands that are simply unacceptable to the GOP, and then accomplishing nothing. Yet he's a member of the caucus in good standing.

Yeah sorry, this just isn't true at all.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2022, 09:38:18 AM »

The thing with Sinema is that she could very easily be a great Senator, and very popular. Except it comes down to how she positions everything. She could easily be another King or Sanders and be a D-caucusing Independent. But it's all about perception, and she has made an unnecessary enemy with progressives for whatever reason, and her disdain for them just seems so odd given that she owes a lot of her 2018 victory to their help (and the Democrats help)! Not sure why she wants to be so combative with people and voters who are the reason she is here today.

Not only that, but pre-2020 she was very much a team player. When she cut that ad for Mark Kelly, it really seemed like there was synergy. Now she doesn't even seem to care about Kelly, did nothing for him or Hobbs this year, doesn't even seem to have a rapport with them, but likes cozying up with Republicans in the senate. What is the game here?

Also her interview with CNN was ... something. She needs to work on her tone and body language. The way she speaks screams fake and disingenuous, like this is all a premeditated and pre-cooked persona that she's trying to be, rather than who she really is.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2022, 09:39:46 AM »

This is so funny. She expected Dems to lose and then swoop in with his high and mighty messaging. Dems did good and it was too late anyway, so she still had to go along with it. So stupid.

Yeah, the irony of all of this is that Mark Kelly is still a "100% voting with Biden" senator but also does STILL come off pretty independent and not a D hack, so it IS doable. And he just won by 5%! So the argument that she's making isn't even a correct one, because Mark Kelly is proving that his brand of doing things works in Arizona. And the way she's doing it is clearly... not.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2022, 09:51:30 AM »

Yeah, this whole thing seems very craven and predicated on the idea that she thought Dems would flop in the midterms and this would give her even more power. The fact that she would rather do that than try and help Dems win the senate in the midterms tells me a lot of how much of a team player she is.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2022, 11:23:43 AM »

There were some signs in last few months that something like this would happen. Apparently she didn't even campaign or support most of the Dems running in AZ. She didn't even endorse Hobbs. Kelly was the only person she endorsed.

She is just so weird. It's not like she is popular with Independents in AZ either..she is underwater with them too. Also saw some people complaining that she doesn't even hold townhalls or her office doesn't respond easily. She just has allienated decent chunk of AZ electorate but also has now put Dems in an extremely tough spot. If Sinema runs as an independent and Dems nominate a candidate, there is a good chance Rs win the seat..just a nightmare scenario for AZ Dem party

This is the thing... like she goes out of her way to be this way when she doesn't have to be. That's what confounds me. She ignores the media (for the most part, besides days like today). She ignores her constituents. She chummies up to GOP senators. Like she could mostly vote the way she wants to and still be like a Mark Kelly but without the disdain for half of her constituents. Like most of this is of her own making.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2022, 09:30:00 PM »

Oh god this is going to be so exhausting. Couldn't she have waited to do this. I don't think I can handle 2 years of this...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2022, 03:02:00 PM »

Imagine being delusional enough to think you can win as independent.

She basically just needed to act and vote like Mark Kelly, who's far from a socialist, and run unopposed for the Democratic nomination and be favored in a general election. Instead, all the grandstanding and attention-seeking for nothing.

This is exactly why I really don't get why she's doing what she's doing. She could still vote like 98% of the way she does without the attention-seeking and grandstanding, and just working in better faith. Like what was the point here?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2022, 09:49:26 AM »

The ballad of Sinema is the most fascinating stories in modern politics

I cannot think of anyone having such potential, such promise, only to squander it on a silly little dance as she abandoned all her past positions becoming the thing she once sought to destroy

That's giving her so much more credit than she deserves.

She's not some f**king tragic antihero. She's just an egotistical empty shell of a person who always said and did whatever she felt like with no regard for anyone or any consistent set of values. I don't understand what's so hard to understand about it.

Eh, idk. Sort of, but I still do believe she was a rising star in 2018 when she got elected. Everyone was on board with her, she was a fresh face, seemed like a great addition to the caucus, she was witty (her vs McSally was incredible)... even in the 2020 run she vouched for Kelly. 2018-2020 Sinema is quite different from 2020-2022 Sinema
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2022, 09:18:50 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2022, 10:19:15 AM by wbrocks67 »

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2023, 03:57:19 PM »

Anyone else looking forward to pundits rating this one a Toss-up and MT/OH (and maybe even WV in Cook's case) Lean/Likely D in their first forecast and later pretending it never happened?

Also, Sinema taking a little more from Republicans than Democrats/Gallego isn’t that surprising to anyone who has been paying attention. I always found the idea that Sinema performing "well" as a third-party candidate (read: mid- to high single digits) would clearly hurt Democrats/Gallego rather perplexing. To the extent Sinema has any "popularity" left, it’s mostly among more conservative voters and Republican-leaning independents who think she stands up to Schumer etc., more so than among Democratic-leaning moderates or whatever. Mark Kelly just won a very easy reelection without having to resort to Sinema's silly antics, so it’s not like Democrats even "need" a candidate like her. Sinema probably wishes this was a WV-type situation where Democrats were reliant on her running again to hold the seat, but it’s clearly not, and most people not named Kyrsten Sinema actually understand that.

Everything about her past (and esp. her recent time in the Senate) suggests that she’s basically just a narcissist desperate for attention and in need of professional help. People aren’t used to politicians going on suicide missions and catapulting themselves out of office like this, so they automatically assume that said politician's actions must be the result of some well-thought-out plan or genius move when in reality it’s little other than plain insanity.

I don't think I've ever agreed so much with an entire post of yours before lol.

You're extremely right, especially on the WV thing. Sinema seems to be in this alternate reality where she needs to be some Manchin-type politician and AZ is WV and yet... she seems extremely delusional since Mark Kelly blew up everything she was trying to make it seem like it was.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2023, 04:39:21 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2023, 08:59:58 AM »

If Gallego doesn't have any other serious competition, will be another gliding primary for Dems which will be helpful. Honestly at this rate, can't really see more than 5-10% of Dems defecting to Sinema with Gallego as the choice, if that.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2023, 01:27:44 PM »

Curious how much Gallego raised 1st day, has got to be quite a bit.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2023, 11:10:56 AM »

From his appearance on CNN yesterday, it looks like he's now up to nearly $3M (or maybe already hit it at this point)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2023, 12:22:21 PM »

Also, what is with this CNN chyron? Who are the Dems that are not in yet? I literally haven't seen any Dems still sticking with Sinema and questioning supporting Gallego...

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2023, 03:53:43 PM »

Very skeptical that Sinema would approach 30% as an Independent:

The survey, which was conducted for Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC, tests out two different potential Republican candidates: conspiracy theorist Kari Lake, who claims she won the 2022 race for governor, and former Gov. Doug Ducey:

Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45

Gallego (D): 36, Lake (R): 36, Sinema (I-inc): 24

Gallego (D): 37, Ducey (R): 31, Sinema (I-inc): 27

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/1/2150565/-New-Arizona-poll-shows-Gallego-can-win-even-if-Sinema-runs-but-senator-can-still-hinder-his-chances
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2023, 11:46:26 AM »

Why would Ciscomani run? He literally just got into Congress and his win wasn't even that impressive - if Dems didn't give up on Engel a month before the election, she probably would've won.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2023, 08:42:35 AM »

side note - what happened to Dani Rose??
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2023, 09:09:03 AM »


for who?! :eyes:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2023, 12:02:37 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2023, 10:07:27 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2023, 06:23:55 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2023, 03:59:14 PM »

Yeah, seems weird for Sinema to attempt to do a whole "anti-Biden" Indy lane, given that that just affirms that no Democrats will vote for her.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: June 27, 2023, 07:29:53 PM »


Pelosi knows ball.
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