AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT) (user search)
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  AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT) (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)  (Read 48266 times)
UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« on: November 24, 2022, 06:22:06 PM »

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).
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UncleSam
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2022, 07:17:07 PM »

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).

She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.
If you had read my post you’d have noticed that I specifically said she’d only have a chance if DeSantis were to become the nominee / presumptive nominee. I agree that in a Trump world she’s donezo in an R primary.

Though it is an interesting question: is she more donezo in an R or a D primary in 2024, regardless of the candidate? I think she’s got a better chance if DeSantis is the nominee in an R primary, and a slightly better chance in a D primary if Trump is the R nominee. She’s got somewhat poor chances regardless, though, which is a shame - she’s one of the best senators if not the best. I will fully support her regardless of the party banner she runs under in 2024.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2023, 04:13:06 AM »

It is pure copium from Ds to fantasize that an incumbent Democratic senator running as an independent would take more voters from Rs than Ds in the event she makes the ballot at all.

It is also pure copium from Rs to think that she will have anything other than a marginal (>.5%) impact on the race.

I know people are obsessed with moderates and neutrals but can we stop talking about Sinema as if she will have any real impact on this race if she runs as an I until there is some evidence she is attracting serious levels of support.
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UncleSam
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,498


« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2023, 10:11:21 AM »

It is pure copium from Ds to fantasize that an incumbent Democratic senator running as an independent would take more voters from Rs than Ds in the event she makes the ballot at all.


Um, every poll shows that she is significantly more popular among Republicans.
And if reports are to be believed her general election strategy is to court moderate Republicans.
From self-described Rs talking to pollsters maybe.

Not from actual people who are going to vote Republican in 2024 though.
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