Arizona 2024
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Reactionary Libertarian
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« Reply #50 on: November 21, 2022, 12:02:49 PM »
« edited: November 30, 2022, 08:32:51 PM by Reactionary Libertarian »

For all the hate Sinema gets, she's a very effective legislator. She helped get infrastructure through, she helped negotiate the gun bill and the marriage bill. I think she's one of the only only Democrats who understands that the GOP isn't for the most part "obstructionist" but are, y'know, conservatives with different opinions than Democrats have. And that a lot of the establishment GOP would absolutely love to do bipartisan dealmaking but that you need to be reasonable. They were willing to cross the aisle on hot button issues like gay marriage and guns, and get nothing in return, because Sinema didn't ask for them to endorse the activist group position (like an assault weapons ban or transgender rights). Contrast that with Chris Murphy's approach of screaming about guns every year, making demands that are simply unacceptable to the GOP, and then accomplishing nothing. Yet he's a member of the caucus in good standing.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #51 on: November 21, 2022, 12:07:58 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2022, 12:11:44 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

The state is on pause until Ruben Gallego enters the primary he said that this is a big Eday 218/217 H and 51/50D Sen and Voting Rights must pass meaning Sinema Filibuster must ends but we don't know if he is running yet he said wait til next year

We have good candidates for Senate already John Love, Brown, Tester, Manchin, and Tim Kaine, Ruben Gallego will be a star if he wins the primary and GE

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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #52 on: November 22, 2022, 05:56:41 PM »

I’m all for primarying Sinema but there’s no guarantee we keep the seat if we run Gallego or whoever defeats Sinema. If a crazy is nominated we are definitely favored but if not it’s easy to imagine Gallego being defined as extreme and losing, especially if Biden loses the state.

Sure, but Sinema is a far weaker candidate than Gallego.  Gallego, Stanton, or really just about any serious candidate would have a better shot in the GE than Sinema, plus if they win then we’d get an actual Democrat in the seat instead of a Republican.  I mean, Sinema is a Republican in a state where an actual Democrat can win (see: Mark Kelly x2, Fontes, Hobbs x2, Hoffman in ‘18, and Mayes) that alone is reason enough to primary her.
You keep using that word. It does not mean what you think it means.

Nah, respectfully, this is a case where you simply don’t know what you’re talking about.

I think people on this forum are all underestimating Sinema. 2 years in politics is super long.

The crazy thing is too that Sinema doesn't need to be this way. She can still do the whole "bipartisan work is important, etc." without being so off-putting to Dems. Mark Kelly just won by 5 points by still maintaining the "independent" mantle despite voting with Dems nearly all of the time. Arizona clearly doesn't have a problem with it. She's just making things worse for herself. But yeah, she can still turn this around if she stops being so obstructionist.

I do wonder about her involvement this year. I wonder if it was more of her not caring at all to help, or if they thought she'd be more of a hinderance? It does speak volumes though that she couldn't at least tweet a few times for Hobbs/Kelly or something. She didn't need to be by their side the whole time, but the fact that she did *nothing* it seems is pretty striking, and kinda shows that she's still refusing to be a team player.
How much is she fundraising behind the scenes? I thought I heard she's a prolific fundraiser for Democratic campaign committees, and that's part of why Schumer still stands, unflinchingly, by her.

Wrong on all counts, but thanks for playing Smiley

Literally nothing in your post is true.
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YE
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« Reply #53 on: November 23, 2022, 03:56:36 AM »

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #54 on: November 23, 2022, 04:03:59 AM »

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.

Ruben Gallego is likely to mount a primary challenge anyways and with both Manchin and Sinema gone Ds have a clear path to 51/50 S and 218/217 with NY, CA along can get Ds that 218 in the H

I am confident Tester and Brown will survive DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24 and Rs aren't gonna win FL, OH 60/40 make way for Brown even if OH goes 3/5 R

Daines beat Bullock in MT by 9 he is much better candidate than Rosendale whom Tester already beat
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #55 on: November 23, 2022, 05:47:28 AM »

Sinema is not running in 2024. I’m almost positive. If she is then she has the worst political instincts imaginable
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #56 on: November 23, 2022, 05:58:07 AM »

We don't know what Sinema thinks she never does press
conference, she only takes to the floor of the Senate like SSM and Filibuster REFORM when an issue comes up.

Those were the two issues she cared about and that was it, oh and she endorsed Joe Kennedy for Senate
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #57 on: November 23, 2022, 10:16:50 AM »

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.

She isn’t, what TimTurner asserted about her fundraising is both factually incorrect.  By which I mean that there is objectively no basis in reality for the claim that Sinema has been some sort of fundraising rockstar for the DSCC.  She went around raising money for *herself* from hyper-partisan Republican mega-donors like Ken Langone and the Koch Brothers at secret closed door events, but the DSCC never saw a cent of that (nor would I want them to be receiving a cut of her bribe to help kill critical pieces legislation that would transform America for the better).  

I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising that Sinema’s re-election is being funded in no small part by Republican mega-donors given that we’re talking about someone who explicitly told Susan Collins, Rob Portman, and John Thune in early 2021 (March 2021 IIRC) that literally the only reason she wasn’t switching parties to flip control of the Senate back to the Republicans was that she didn’t think it was possible for an openly bisexual non-theist to win a Republican primary in Arizona.

For that matter, TimTurner’s claim about Schumer unflinchingly supporting Sinema isn’t true either.  I couldn’t find anything recent about Schumer allegedly supporting her re-election (although I wouldn’t be surprised if he nominally does so in the most apathetic way possible like how he nominally supported Hillary in 2008 while working tirelessly behind the scenes to get Obama to run).    

I do know that when asked at one point whether he would explicitly commit to supporting Sinema if she faced a primary challenge, all Schumer would say is “the DSCC is will always work to re-elect our incumbents” (or words to that effect).  He made a point of refusing to say “I support Senator Sinema’s re-election” when directly asked to do so.  That’s basically Caucus Leader speak for “b/c of my position I can’t publicly endorse the primary challenger to a member of my caucus, but I hope the primary challenge is successful and won’t be lifting a finger to help said incumbent since I want them to lose their primary.”
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #58 on: November 23, 2022, 10:36:53 AM »

For all the hate Sinema gets, she's a very effective legislator. I think she was the one who got Manchin on board with ARP; she helped negotiate the gun bill and the marriage bill. I think she's one of the only only Democrats who understands that the GOP isn't for the most part "obstructionist" but are, y'know, conservatives with different opinions than Democrats have. And that a lot of the establishment GOP would absolutely love to do bipartisan dealmaking but that you need to be reasonable. They were willing to cross the aisle on hot button issues like gay marriage and guns, and get nothing in return, because Sinema didn't ask for them to endorse the activist group position (like an assault weapons ban or transgender rights). Contrast that with Chris Murphy's approach of screaming about guns every year, making demands that are simply unacceptable to the GOP, and then accomplishing nothing. Yet he's a member of the caucus in good standing.

Yeah sorry, this just isn't true at all.
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Torie
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« Reply #59 on: November 23, 2022, 10:54:50 AM »

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.

She isn’t, what TimTurner asserted about her fundraising is both factually incorrect.  By which I mean that there is objectively no basis in reality for the claim that Sinema has been some sort of fundraising rockstar for the DSCC.  She went around raising money for *herself* from hyper-partisan Republican mega-donors like Ken Langone and the Koch Brothers at secret closed door events, but the DSCC never saw a cent of that (nor would I want them to be receiving a cut of her bribe to help kill critical pieces legislation that would transform America for the better).  

I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising that Sinema’s re-election is being funded in no small part by Republican mega-donors given that we’re talking about someone who explicitly told Susan Collins, Rob Portman, and John Thune in early 2021 (March 2021 IIRC) that literally the only reason she wasn’t switching parties to flip control of the Senate back to the Republicans was that she didn’t think it was possible for an openly bisexual non-theist to win a Republican primary in Arizona.

For that matter, TimTurner’s claim about Schumer unflinchingly supporting Sinema isn’t true either.  I couldn’t find anything recent about Schumer allegedly supporting her re-election (although I wouldn’t be surprised if he nominally does so in the most apathetic way possible like how he nominally supported Hillary in 2008 while working tirelessly behind the scenes to get Obama to run).    

I do know that when asked at one point whether he would explicitly commit to supporting Sinema if she faced a primary challenge, all Schumer would say is “the DSCC is will always work to re-elect our incumbents” (or words to that effect).  He made a point of refusing to say “I support Senator Sinema’s re-election” when directly asked to do so.  That’s basically Caucus Leader speak for “b/c of my position I can’t publicly endorse the primary challenger to a member of my caucus, but I hope the primary challenge is successful and won’t be lifting a finger to help said incumbent since I want them to lose their primary.”

Do you have a citation for the most fascinating bolded bit (which is gossip that I have not been exposed to before)?  Thanks.
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #60 on: November 23, 2022, 03:08:25 PM »

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.

She isn’t, what TimTurner asserted about her fundraising is both factually incorrect.  By which I mean that there is objectively no basis in reality for the claim that Sinema has been some sort of fundraising rockstar for the DSCC.  She went around raising money for *herself* from hyper-partisan Republican mega-donors like Ken Langone and the Koch Brothers at secret closed door events, but the DSCC never saw a cent of that (nor would I want them to be receiving a cut of her bribe to help kill critical pieces legislation that would transform America for the better).  

I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising that Sinema’s re-election is being funded in no small part by Republican mega-donors given that we’re talking about someone who explicitly told Susan Collins, Rob Portman, and John Thune in early 2021 (March 2021 IIRC) that literally the only reason she wasn’t switching parties to flip control of the Senate back to the Republicans was that she didn’t think it was possible for an openly bisexual non-theist to win a Republican primary in Arizona.

For that matter, TimTurner’s claim about Schumer unflinchingly supporting Sinema isn’t true either.  I couldn’t find anything recent about Schumer allegedly supporting her re-election (although I wouldn’t be surprised if he nominally does so in the most apathetic way possible like how he nominally supported Hillary in 2008 while working tirelessly behind the scenes to get Obama to run).    

I do know that when asked at one point whether he would explicitly commit to supporting Sinema if she faced a primary challenge, all Schumer would say is “the DSCC is will always work to re-elect our incumbents” (or words to that effect).  He made a point of refusing to say “I support Senator Sinema’s re-election” when directly asked to do so.  That’s basically Caucus Leader speak for “b/c of my position I can’t publicly endorse the primary challenger to a member of my caucus, but I hope the primary challenge is successful and won’t be lifting a finger to help said incumbent since I want them to lose their primary.”

Do you have a citation for the most fascinating bolded bit (which is gossip that I have not been exposed to before)?  Thanks.


I read it in This Will Not Pass (technically, heard it since I was listening to the audiobook).
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Torie
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« Reply #61 on: November 23, 2022, 04:03:58 PM »

I really doubt Sinema is a fundraiser for other Democrats given she didn’t campaign for anyone else in Arizona this cycle.

She isn’t, what TimTurner asserted about her fundraising is both factually incorrect.  By which I mean that there is objectively no basis in reality for the claim that Sinema has been some sort of fundraising rockstar for the DSCC.  She went around raising money for *herself* from hyper-partisan Republican mega-donors like Ken Langone and the Koch Brothers at secret closed door events, but the DSCC never saw a cent of that (nor would I want them to be receiving a cut of her bribe to help kill critical pieces legislation that would transform America for the better).  

I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising that Sinema’s re-election is being funded in no small part by Republican mega-donors given that we’re talking about someone who explicitly told Susan Collins, Rob Portman, and John Thune in early 2021 (March 2021 IIRC) that literally the only reason she wasn’t switching parties to flip control of the Senate back to the Republicans was that she didn’t think it was possible for an openly bisexual non-theist to win a Republican primary in Arizona.

For that matter, TimTurner’s claim about Schumer unflinchingly supporting Sinema isn’t true either.  I couldn’t find anything recent about Schumer allegedly supporting her re-election (although I wouldn’t be surprised if he nominally does so in the most apathetic way possible like how he nominally supported Hillary in 2008 while working tirelessly behind the scenes to get Obama to run).    

I do know that when asked at one point whether he would explicitly commit to supporting Sinema if she faced a primary challenge, all Schumer would say is “the DSCC is will always work to re-elect our incumbents” (or words to that effect).  He made a point of refusing to say “I support Senator Sinema’s re-election” when directly asked to do so.  That’s basically Caucus Leader speak for “b/c of my position I can’t publicly endorse the primary challenger to a member of my caucus, but I hope the primary challenge is successful and won’t be lifting a finger to help said incumbent since I want them to lose their primary.”

Do you have a citation for the most fascinating bolded bit (which is gossip that I have not been exposed to before)?  Thanks.


I read it in This Will Not Pass (technically, heard it since I was listening to the audiobook).

You sure you didn't her it from Steve Bannon at a bar?  Devil

https://www.newsweek.com/kyrsten-sinema-switch-parties-after-2024-election-bannon-predicts-1747624
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #62 on: November 24, 2022, 02:40:24 PM »

My bold prediction is that Sinema runs as an Independent and we get a three-way race between her, Gallego, and whoever the GOP nominates
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #63 on: November 24, 2022, 03:02:58 PM »

Lol she supported Joe Kennedy and voted for KBJ to replace Breyer we don't even know if Gallego runs if he died beat her she would not run as an Indy she was a lifelong Ds she is just a blue dog but she is no Zell Milker

People want to make predictions of a primary and Gallego hasn't even decided to run just like users think Brown, Tester and Manchin and Beshear are toast and it's 2 yrs and Johnson proved there are no auto flips with Incumbents without any POLL
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #64 on: November 24, 2022, 03:30:19 PM »

My bold prediction is that Sinema runs as an Independent and we get a three-way race between her, Gallego, and whoever the GOP nominates

Entirely possible she does this in an attempt to split the Democratic vote and help her fellow Republicans.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #65 on: November 24, 2022, 03:30:39 PM »

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #66 on: November 24, 2022, 03:37:20 PM »

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

Sure, but what are the odds of the AZ GOP actually nominating such a person?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #67 on: November 24, 2022, 03:43:31 PM »

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

Sure, but what are the odds of the AZ GOP actually nominating such a person?

I don't know but I wouldn't want to risk it. Republicans lost many winnable seats in 2010 and 2012 because they nominated tea party kooks but they seemed to learn their lesson and in 2014 and 2016 things went smoothly for establishment candidates. Maybe that's what will happen in 2024 too.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #68 on: November 24, 2022, 03:48:01 PM »

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

He's back!
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #69 on: November 24, 2022, 05:34:27 PM »

So they stopped doing Sinema approval polls when the mid terms heated up, but as of earlier this year she was literally the least popular incumbent with soame party voters in the history of polling.
So I still feel confident she'll be out of our misery after the primary.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #70 on: November 24, 2022, 06:22:06 PM »

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #71 on: November 24, 2022, 06:27:39 PM »

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).

She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #72 on: November 24, 2022, 07:17:07 PM »

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).

She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.
If you had read my post you’d have noticed that I specifically said she’d only have a chance if DeSantis were to become the nominee / presumptive nominee. I agree that in a Trump world she’s donezo in an R primary.

Though it is an interesting question: is she more donezo in an R or a D primary in 2024, regardless of the candidate? I think she’s got a better chance if DeSantis is the nominee in an R primary, and a slightly better chance in a D primary if Trump is the R nominee. She’s got somewhat poor chances regardless, though, which is a shame - she’s one of the best senators if not the best. I will fully support her regardless of the party banner she runs under in 2024.
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #73 on: November 24, 2022, 07:19:45 PM »

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).

She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.
If you had read my post you’d have noticed that I specifically said she’d only have a chance if DeSantis were to become the nominee / presumptive nominee. I agree that in a Trump world she’s donezo in an R primary.

Though it is an interesting question: is she more donezo in an R or a D primary in 2024, regardless of the candidate? I think she’s got a better chance if DeSantis is the nominee in an R primary, and a slightly better chance in a D primary if Trump is the R nominee. She’s got somewhat poor chances regardless, though, which is a shame - she’s one of the best senators if not the best. I will fully support her regardless of the party banner she runs under in 2024.

More likely to lose the Democratic primary
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #74 on: November 24, 2022, 10:47:19 PM »

I would have little problem with Sinema's obnoxious bothesiderism/moderate heroism if it actually worked. The problem is though that if polls are to be believed, it doesn't.
She is deeply disliked by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. That's the main reason why I think she needs to be primaried. She is so unpopular that she'll probably lose to a semi-normal Republican.

I think Sinema's issue is less about being "moderate" but moreso that she seems very disconnected and is unclear about where she stands. I think many see it as attention seeking or like being a thorn in Dems side for the sake of it.

If she could better articulate where she stands and what she supports, I would have less of an issue with her. But to me, she seems to lack any sort of clear values/beliefs.
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