AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

How is Sinema either of those things? At one point, sure, but not now

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

How is Sinema either of those things? At one point, sure, but not now

She's anti-Trump, pro-abortion, socially liberal on basically everything, she's a free trader, pro-Ukraine, votes with Biden most of the time, votes with Schumer most of the time.
Honestly the stuff that she's "moderate" on I don't care about. She's the worst in the Senate and I would even support Gallego over that poor-hating SJW.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

Seems we ought prepare for another Jeffords-esque switch that decides The Senate...or a Specter/Shelby/Nighthorse-Campbell style "winning side" switch from Sinema.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

If Lake doesn't run, I would be extremely shocked if the AZ GOP failed to recruit even some random ass state legislator to run. Even if some random small business owner gets on the ballot, they'd endorse them over Sinema.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

Seems we ought prepare for another Jeffords-esque switch that decides The Senate...or a Specter/Shelby/Nighthorse-Campbell style "winning side" switch from Sinema.

What the heck are you talking about?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

If Lake doesn't run, I would be extremely shocked if the AZ GOP failed to recruit even some random ass state legislator to run. Even if some random small business owner gets on the ballot, they'd endorse them over Sinema.

Blake Masters will probably run if Lake doesnt, at least he's indicated as such.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

If Lake doesn't run, I would be extremely shocked if the AZ GOP failed to recruit even some random ass state legislator to run. Even if some random small business owner gets on the ballot, they'd endorse them over Sinema.

Yea this. Even in Maine King usually faces some token democratic opponent from his left

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

Seems we ought prepare for another Jeffords-esque switch that decides The Senate...or a Specter/Shelby/Nighthorse-Campbell style "winning side" switch from Sinema.

What the heck are you talking about?

It's simple, Sinema could decide she'd have better luck working with McConnell than with Schumer and decide to switch to R-caucusing.

She was quite literally a socialist greenie last decade and has been moving further and further right since.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

I agree that it's a Tossup, I think Sinema is going to pull more from Ds in the end, and I think Biden will outrun Gallego. I think I want Biden at 51% here to feel good about this one.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

I agree that it's a Tossup, I think Sinema is going to pull more from Ds in the end, and I think Biden will outrun Gallego. I think I want Biden at 51% here to feel good about this one.

Not sure she costs Democrats more votes. More like 50/50. Her approval rating among Republicans has been higher than Democrats in latest polls. If she's delusional enough to actually run.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

I agree that it's a Tossup, I think Sinema is going to pull more from Ds in the end, and I think Biden will outrun Gallego. I think I want Biden at 51% here to feel good about this one.

Not sure she costs Democrats more votes. More like 50/50. Her approval rating among Republicans has been higher than Democrats in latest polls. If she's delusional enough to actually run.

No way she doesn’t run, she’s already trying to brand herself as "The Next Lieberman" without doing anything that made Lieberman actually popular enough to be elected as an Independent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

Seems we ought prepare for another Jeffords-esque switch that decides The Senate...or a Specter/Shelby/Nighthorse-Campbell style "winning side" switch from Sinema.

What the heck are you talking about?

It's simple, Sinema could decide she'd have better luck working with McConnell than with Schumer and decide to switch to R-caucusing.

She was quite literally a socialist greenie last decade and has been moving further and further right since.

That ship sailed long ago. Right now it will do her no good and will look like opportunism at best and petulance at worst.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

Seems we ought prepare for another Jeffords-esque switch that decides The Senate...or a Specter/Shelby/Nighthorse-Campbell style "winning side" switch from Sinema.

What the heck are you talking about?

It's simple, Sinema could decide she'd have better luck working with McConnell than with Schumer and decide to switch to R-caucusing.

She was quite literally a socialist greenie last decade and has been moving further and further right since.

That ship sailed long ago. Right now it will do her no good and will look like opportunism at best and petulance at worst.

No disagreement.

Arguably switching to Indie in response to not being yasqueenkingmaker after Fetterman's win/bad poll numbers at the primary was already opportunistic and petulant to begin with.

So this would be nothing new.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

I agree that it's a Tossup, I think Sinema is going to pull more from Ds in the end, and I think Biden will outrun Gallego. I think I want Biden at 51% here to feel good about this one.

Biden might get a higher percentage of the vote, but Gallego doesn't neccessarily need 50% of the vote to win

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

I would move it from Tilt to Lean at best. Actually starts out as a tossup. While Gallego has a good chance to beat a MAGA Republican, Democrats would make a mistake by taking this one for granted. It's really a must win.

Also we're still over a year out; anyone who feels confident about how the dynamics of this very unique race will play out is kidding themselves. There's still a non-negligable chance Sinema drops out or the GOP finds a way to nominate someone normal (though both seem less likely than not at this point).

[henster]

I do wonder what Sinema's next move is when it becomes increasingly obvious she has no path of winning as an independent? I do believe she's a narcissist which makes her actions hard to predict.  She could still decide she has a better chance of winning by switching to Republican and beating Lake in a primary. I could see her resigning suddenly and angling for a cabinet position or ambassadorship somewhere just to save face. She is still the big X factor here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin is in the same boat Manchin won't win the WH with Biden and won't beat Justice and no major independence have gotten more than 3% he is gonna get Jerguson numbers in the Prez race it's a waste of time running for S or Prez

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I do wonder what Sinema's next move is when it becomes increasingly obvious she has no path of winning as an independent? I do believe she's a narcissist which makes her actions hard to predict.  She could still decide she has a better chance of winning by switching to Republican and beating Lake in a primary. I could see her resigning suddenly and angling for a cabinet position or ambassadorship somewhere just to save face. She is still the big X factor here.

She would be less likely to win a Republican primary than a Democrat primary lmao

[Reactionary Libertarian]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

Luckily taxes are by far the most important issue to the GOP and their donors…
Best case scenario for the GOP at this point is that Masters and Lake both run and split the crazy vote, allowing someone electable to win. But if one of them wins I could see some establishment types/donors going with Sinema. Probably won’t help her much though.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

Doesn't the AZ GOP make their own rules though? Why can't they just decline to put up a candidate?

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

Doesn't the AZ GOP make their own rules though? Why can't they just decline to put up a candidate?

They can't just make the decision to cancel their primary as a party with major party status if they have a candidate running for it already. Democrats didn't have a nominee for Mine Inspector last year, but that was only because no one ran. Unless all the Republicans drop out (they won't), there will be an official Republican nominee no matter if the party decided to get behind Sinema's independent bid or not.