AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[The Mikado]

Curious how much Gallego raised 1st day, has got to be quite a bit.

He said "over a million," which is a lot for a day one Senate candidate. We'll find out after Q1 ends how MUCH more than a million, though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.

https://twitter.com/SenatorSinema/status/1617633841065385986?s=20&t=p1l_f295...

Just found this which is quite interesting. Basically a lot of mayors around greater Pheonix saying positive things of Sinema. Most seem to represent swingy to red leaning outer suburbs and exurbs, and if I had to guess, prolly a mix of people who usually vote R except during 2020/2022 and mayors who held their nose and voted for Masters/Lake reluctantly.

Now just because they said nice things doesn't necessarily mean they will end up supporting or endorsing her formally, but still interesting and def goes along with your general theory.

Both Mayor Ortega and Giles endorsed Kelly, so if they were to support Sinema over Gallego it would be a sign of erosion for Dem support. I am unfamiliar with the other ones.

[JMT]

When was the last time a candidate who lost a statewide general election made a successful statewide run immediately the following cycle? Particularly failed gubernatorial candidates?

The only one in recent memory I can think of off the top of my head was Claire McCaskill, who lost a gubernatorial election in 2004 before winning a US Senate election in 2006.

Susan Collins ran unsuccessfully as the Republican nominee for Governor of Maine in 1994, then won the Senate race in 1996.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

When was the last time a candidate who lost a statewide general election made a successful statewide run immediately the following cycle? Particularly failed gubernatorial candidates?

The only one in recent memory I can think of off the top of my head was Claire McCaskill, who lost a gubernatorial election in 2004 before winning a US Senate election in 2006.

Susan Collins ran unsuccessfully as the Republican nominee for Governor of Maine in 1994, then won the Senate race in 1996.

There's also Diane Feinstein losing the CA gubernatorial race in 1990 before winning her Senate seat in 1992

[JMT]

When was the last time a candidate who lost a statewide general election made a successful statewide run immediately the following cycle? Particularly failed gubernatorial candidates?

The only one in recent memory I can think of off the top of my head was Claire McCaskill, who lost a gubernatorial election in 2004 before winning a US Senate election in 2006.

Susan Collins ran unsuccessfully as the Republican nominee for Governor of Maine in 1994, then won the Senate race in 1996.

There's also Diane Feinstein losing the CA gubernatorial race in 1990 before winning her Senate seat in 1992

Bob Casey also ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2002 and then ran successfully for State Treasurer in 2004.

And not a failed gubernatorial candidate, but John Thune ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2002 before winning the state’s other senate seat in 2004.

[wbrocks67]

From his appearance on CNN yesterday, it looks like he's now up to nearly $3M (or maybe already hit it at this point)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

From his appearance on CNN yesterday, it looks like he's now up to nearly $3M (or maybe already hit it at this point)

I wonder how much he had on hand, he’s from one of the bluest seats in Arizona so he probably has a large war chest

[wbrocks67]

Also, what is with this CNN chyron? Who are the Dems that are not in yet? I literally haven't seen any Dems still sticking with Sinema and questioning supporting Gallego...

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1618262532690677765

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 2 yrs till Eday, lol

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, what is with this CNN chyron? Who are the Dems that are not in yet? I literally haven't seen any Dems still sticking with Sinema and questioning supporting Gallego...

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1618262532690677765

Dems in disarray.

[Pollster]

Sinema drops out shortly before the filing deadline blaming "partisan politics-obsessed Washington" or something jargony like that for what is entirely the result of her own decisions and actions, spends the lead-up to the general election both-sidesing and denigrating the candidates to replace her in a last-ditch effort to establish moral superiority, and then after the election is over finds a way to claim credit for the victory of whoever wins.

[Ferguson97]

Also, what is with this CNN chyron? Who are the Dems that are not in yet? I literally haven't seen any Dems still sticking with Sinema and questioning supporting Gallego...

My guess would be that there's still nearly 2 years until the election and Democrats don't want to risk pissing off Sinema by endorsing her opponent if she plans to run for re-election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

[Хahar 🤔]

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left?
Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

Do you think that people dislike Kyrsten Sinema just because she has bad vibes?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's very easy to be a key part of every major piece of legislation that passes if you shoot down everything that doesn't meet your own constantly-moving target for moderateness.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema is vulnerable because she blocked Voting Rights and Rs won the H Gallego would have stayed in the H if Pelosi was Speaker that's why she changed to Indy to run in GE as soon as RS won the H, but Gallego in a Prez yr is favorite regardless

[Landslide Lyndon]

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

She brought it to herself with her constant craving for attention, to the point of obnoxiousness.
It's really the same thing that made Joe Lieberman a persona non grata among progressives despite the fact that he was considerably more liberal than people like Ben Nelson and Mark Pryor.

[Blair]

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

I don't agree; there's a lot of democratic senators who are relatively moderate or bipartisan.

Lets compare her to Manchin.

Someone like Manchin has a viable political reason & a backstory to make him sceptical of actions that hurt the coal industry.

Sinema has no valid reason to say fight for the carried interest loophole?!!Other than the fact that she was wooed by wall street. That's the reason I cannot stand her- it's identical to Joe Lieberman shooting down the public option for no obvious reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Eday is two yrs from now they want you to Donate a yr prior til Eday that's why so many candidate are getting in early because Bernie online fundraiser broke record a yr prior to Eday 2015/2019 but after Ryan lost, we should all be cautious he wanted donations a yr prior and had an early fundraiser lead and he Lost, Strickland did too he Lost I gave both to Strickland and Ryan

[Mr. Smith]

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

I don't agree; there's a lot of democratic senators who are relatively moderate or bipartisan.

Lets compare her to Manchin.

Someone like Manchin has a viable political reason & a backstory to make him sceptical of actions that hurt the coal industry.

Sinema has no valid reason to say fight for the carried interest loophole?!!Other than the fact that she was wooed by wall street. That's the reason I cannot stand her- it's identical to Joe Lieberman shooting down the public option for no obvious reason.

His wife would stand to lose, as she's in the pharmecutical industry iirc.  This kinda exacerbates the point of Sinema truly having no real stakes for her position.

[windjammer]

Sinema does have some skills. After all she helped pass the same sex marriage protection bill.


However, I can't stand her because she's corrupt and only thinks for herself. See the loophole etc.

She's a narcissist idiot and this kind of persons aren't team players

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema does have some skills. After all she helped pass the same sex marriage protection bill.


However, I can't stand her because she's corrupt and only thinks for herself. See the loophole etc.

She's a narcissist idiot and this kind of persons aren't team players

She is vulnerable because she blocked Voting Rights and Rs took the H had Pelosi stayed as Speaking Ruben would have stayed put in the H

[ProgressiveModerate]

Serious question on here

Does anyone else feel like Sinema has been a bit singeled out by the media and the left? Being "moderate" or "bipartisan" isn't inherently a bad thing, and she's actually been decently effective and has been a key part of every big piece of bipartisan legislation that has passed, and that's a really hard thing to understate. I was thinking about this the other day; if instead of Sinema you had a more progressive D, I rlly wonder if some of these things would've happened. She seems decently liked by a number of colleagues on both sides which is impressive.

Also a lot of Senators have issues with holding town halls and staying in touch back home, as well as outside money. Yes it's a huge problem in our politics, but it's not a problem specific to Sinema.

I also don't find Sinema's personal personality to be as bad or toxic as many here seem to think, though stuff like the dramatic thumbs down on the minimum wage incerase (which I also oppose) was uncalled for.

My biggest gripe with Sinema rlly is just how close she holds her cards to her chest; she doesn't really say where she stands. I feel like her citicism could also be a little more constructive; propose amendments or alternatives rather than just hard no.

Her problems seem to be much more with her optics (which are frankly terrible) rather than her policy, effectiveness, or her herself.

I feel like I'm having somewhat of a political identity crisis on this race and I've gone back and forth between really disliking Sinema and being ok with her (and go back and forth on being a full-fledged Gallego supporter or torn between Gallego and Sinema).

Regardless of if she drops out, no way she stays viable unless this is a FL-2010 Sen situation all over again, and I think I've decided I will support whoever ends up being the most viable between Gallego and Sinema, which will most likely be Gallego.

I don't agree; there's a lot of democratic senators who are relatively moderate or bipartisan.

Lets compare her to Manchin.

Someone like Manchin has a viable political reason & a backstory to make him sceptical of actions that hurt the coal industry.

Sinema has no valid reason to say fight for the carried interest loophole?!!Other than the fact that she was wooed by wall street. That's the reason I cannot stand her- it's identical to Joe Lieberman shooting down the public option for no obvious reason.

I think that's a fair point, and one of the main reasons I am still sometimes frustrated with Sinema.

However, at the end of the day AZ is still a swing state and in 2018, many saw her more-moderate campaign style as the only path to victory in the state. Just using moderates to win election and then either expect them to race back to the extremes and/or just kicking them out seems a bit wrong to me.

I think maybe what I'm forgetting in all this is that a politician can be all of bipartisan, effective, and corrupt.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm worried about Sinema attacking Gallego more than the republican honestly

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm worried about Sinema attacking Gallego more than the republican honestly

And she'll look every bit like the entitled, petulant child she is.