DFL wins trifecta in Minnesota

[Minnesota Mike]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

I was just about to ask what the odds are the Democrats grow a spine and do some reredistricting with their new trifecta.

Zero. Nada. Not happening. Zilch.

As I have said elsewhere besides be antithetical to Minnesota's "good government" ethos they just don't have the votes for something that controversial. The biggest opponents of a mid decade redistricting would be the Minneapolis and St Paul DFL delegations who are vehemently opposed to those cities being split.

[Devils30]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

I was just about to ask what the odds are the Democrats grow a spine and do some reredistricting with their new trifecta.

Zero. Nada. Not happening. Zilch.

As I have said elsewhere besides be antithetical to Minnesota's "good government" ethos they just don't have the votes for something that controversial. The biggest opponents of a mid decade redistricting would be the Minneapolis and St Paul DFL delegations who are vehemently opposed to those cities being split.

No one will care, I think DFL members might see it differently as long as their seats stay safe (which they will even if a bit less Dem). One way to do it would be to make MN-1 and 8 around Biden +7, not overdoing it with an egregious gerrymander but one that would give Dems a step ahead in a 2022 type year and not seem as absurd as Biden +15 with Minneapolis cracked all over.

[Minnesota Mike]

At face value, Dems winning a legislative majority in a Biden + 7 state isn't all that impressive, but it's important to rmbr that geography in MN for Dems sucks and the median legislative seat is like Biden + 2.

It seems like this cycle, Dems were very successful at upsetting in a lot of narrowly-Biden suburban seats around MSP that they lost in 2020 due to "downballot lag" or whatever and people just assumed that would happen again. Tbh, this seems like a really common theme in a lot of state legislature results, particularly in the midwest.

If suburban shifts continue, I could see MSP single-handedly locking Rs out of the legislature, but we're not there yet.

Time to play hardball and replace the R leaning 4-4 map with a 6-2 Dem one that makes MN-1 a Biden seat and MN-8 a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

I was just about to ask what the odds are the Democrats grow a spine and do some reredistricting with their new trifecta.

Zero. Nada. Not happening. Zilch.

As I have said elsewhere besides be antithetical to Minnesota's "good government" ethos they just don't have the votes for something that controversial. The biggest opponents of a mid decade redistricting would be the Minneapolis and St Paul DFL delegations who are vehemently opposed to those cities being split.

No one will care, I think DFL members might see it differently as long as their seats stay safe (which they will even if a bit less Dem). One way to do it would be to make MN-1 and 8 around Biden +7, not overdoing it with an egregious gerrymander but one that would give Dems a step ahead in a 2022 type year and not seem as absurd as Biden +15 with Minneapolis cracked all over.

You can rationalize why the DFL should do a mid decade redistricting all you want but as someone who has been following MN politics for over 40 years I just see no chance of it happening. I have given some of my reasons above and FWIW I have never heard a peep from any Minnesota politico even bringing up the possibility. The DFL did not redistrict in 2012 when they last had a trifecta and they won't now. Heck I'm not even sure it would be legal in MN.

[Frodo]

Better late than never:

Best of all the State Senate mostly came down to the 3rd district, an ancestrally D seat in the Iron Range held by one of those former turncoat Democrats who became an independent and caucused with the Republicans. He retired, but at the end of last night the DFL candidate was ahead and though a lot of precincts were still out, most of them were very small townships...and Hermantown, a pretty D Duluth suburb. And all analysts said that if he held out, the Democrats would hold the State Senate...so I was optimistic.

Good to see, but the Iron Range now has a majority Republican delegation in the legislature now, not that it isn't entirely unexpected:

Analysis: Iron Range shifts its politics, but only so far — for now

[Minnesota Mike]

Update on some elections stuff working it's way through the MN state legislature about half way through the session. Only the automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence has passed both houses and been signed into law, the rest have cleared at least one committee remain alive.

- Automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence. (Signed into law)
- MN joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
- RCV for state and federal elections.
- Establish 18 days of in person early voting that will work like ED voting (MN already has in person absentee voting but that is a little more cumbersome)

A lot of this will probably be rolled into an omnibus elections bill and with narrow DFL majorities no guarantee's of final passage but my guess is at least some of the measures become law.

[Epaminondas]

Update on some elections stuff working it's way through the MN state legislature about half way through the session. Only the automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence has passed both houses and been signed into law, the rest have cleared at least one committee remain alive.

- Automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence. (Signed into law)
- MN joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
- RCV for state and federal elections.
- Establish 18 days of in person early voting that will work like ED voting (MN already has in person absentee voting but that is a little more cumbersome)

A lot of this will probably be rolled into an omnibus elections bill and with narrow DFL majorities no guarantee's of final passage but my guess is at least some of the measures become law.

Even RCV. Based. 10 years worth of legislative gridlock to make up for!

Have the DFL been united so far, no quislings like in NY or WA before 2018?

[Minnesota Mike]

Update on some elections stuff working it's way through the MN state legislature about half way through the session. Only the automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence has passed both houses and been signed into law, the rest have cleared at least one committee remain alive.

- Automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who have completed their prison sentence. (Signed into law)
- MN joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
- RCV for state and federal elections.
- Establish 18 days of in person early voting that will work like ED voting (MN already has in person absentee voting but that is a little more cumbersome)

A lot of this will probably be rolled into an omnibus elections bill and with narrow DFL majorities no guarantee's of final passage but my guess is at least some of the measures become law.

Even RCV. Based. 10 years worth of legislative gridlock to make up for!

Have the DFL been united so far, no quislings like in NY or WA before 2018?

So far they have been very united. So far they have passed bills concerning abortion rights, clean energy, drivers license for non documented residents, voting rights for ex felons among other things. A lot of other big stuff will wait until the end of session like it always does.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What non-election stuff has passed? I'd imagine full weed legalization would be a top priority, considering how many seats and offices the pot parties have supposedly swung over the years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What non-election stuff has passed? I'd imagine full weed legalization would be a top priority, considering how many seats and offices the pot parties have supposedly swung over the years.

https://apnews.com/article/abortion-politics-minnesota-state-government-timothy-walz-11c3b1d5269c929e442b979ff1bac73b
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09022023/inside-clean-energy-minnesota-100-percent-law/

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Crazy how Minnesota has the most left-wing legislature in the nation. Some of the stuff they're passing is disgusting.

[Minnesota Mike]

Crazy how Minnesota has the most left-wing legislature in the nation. Some of the stuff they're passing is disgusting.

Example?

The MN Leg is nowhere near the most left wing in the nation. More progressive than most but not in the same league as CA among others.

[Epaminondas]

Any word on when the Minnesota legislature will pass the Interstate Compact?

[Minnesota Mike]

Any word on when the Minnesota legislature will pass the Interstate Compact?

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

[Epaminondas]

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

Is this due to the Senate hinging on a few Blue Dogs?

Neither the Interstate compact nor RCV are controversial to non-Trumpists, and the Senate isn't up until 2026. This should be the perfect time to catch up on a decade of stalled bills.

[Minnesota Mike]

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

Is this due to the Senate hinging on a few Blue Dogs?

Neither the Interstate compact nor RCV are controversial to non-Trumpists, and the Senate isn't up until 2026. This should be the perfect time to catch up on a decade of stalled bills.

Dems only have a 1 vote majority in the Senate, it's actually pretty impressive how much they have held together especially on social issues. Personally as someone who's politics lean left I am not sold on RCV or especially the  Interstate compact. I think there are legitimate reasons to be against both.

[Epaminondas]

Dems only have a 1 vote majority in the Senate, it's actually pretty impressive how much they have held together especially on social issues. Personally as someone who's politics lean left I am not sold on RCV or especially the  Interstate compact. I think there are legitimate reasons to be against both.

Good strategy to expand the Senate majority first by playing it safe, then actually bringing in the necessary reforms.

Minnesota has had 4 straight governor plurality wins (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010), surely you can see it's a valid concern to ask who the third party voters prefer rather than completely disregard their voice for 4 years.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any word on when the Minnesota legislature will pass the Interstate Compact?

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

What is dead may never die.

Well goes to show what I know. Interstate compact passed the Senate today as part of a different elections bill. It's not done yet but it's looking really good for NPV since the Senate was viewed as the tougher chamber to get through.

Other MN Leg updates.

Marijuana legalization has passed the House, it's up in the Senate on Friday. Bills are slightly different in both houses so it will need to go to conference committee and then repass both houses but that's likely.

Enhanced background checks on gun purchases and a red flag law has passed the House after two days of debate. On to the Senate.

[Epaminondas]

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass.

Well goes to show what I know. Interstate compact passed the Senate today as part of a different elections bill.

That was quite funny.
Where do you see this legislative news? No reports in local papers that I can find.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any word on when the Minnesota legislature will pass the Interstate Compact?

Right now it looks doubtful it will pass. The interstate compact was not included in the omnibus Senate elections bill passed last week. It was in the House version and theoretically could be added back to the bill in conference committee but I doubt it. RCV is also dead, it was replaced by a "blue ribbon commission to study the matter" in the senate bill.

What is dead may never die.

Well goes to show what I know. Interstate compact passed the Senate today as part of a different elections bill. It's not done yet but it's looking really good for NPV since the Senate was viewed as the tougher chamber to get through.

Other MN Leg updates.

Marijuana legalization has passed the House, it's up in the Senate on Friday. Bills are slightly different in both houses so it will need to go to conference committee and then repass both houses but that's likely.

Enhanced background checks on gun purchases and a red flag law has passed the House after two days of debate. On to the Senate.

As I noted in other threads, marijuana legalization passed the Senate on a pure party line vote. It still has to go through a conference committee and a reconciled bill needs to be passed by both chambers again before it goes to Walz's desk, but at this point it's pretty clearly a sure thing.

[Minnesota Mike]

Around 1 week left in the MN Legislative session. They have to be done by midnight a week from Monday but the House hopes to be finished by next Thursday, my guess is it goes until next weekend. Republicans have been dragging things out in protest of getting steam rolled on most items but while they can slow things down they can't stop the Democratic majority if they hang together.

Since this is an elections board an update on election related items.

-Restore voting rights of felons after sentance completion. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Automatic voter registration. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Pre-registration to vote for 16- and 17-year-olds. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Optional permanent absentee voter list for automatic delivery of an absentee ballot. Passed, signed by Governor.

-Extend in person early voting to 18 days. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law. (slightly different than in person absentee voting)

-For a political party to maintain major party status, their candidate must receive at least 8% of votes at a state general election beginning Nov. 7, 2024. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law. (goodbye weed parties).

-State law would show Minnesota’s support of the Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law.

- Ranked Choice voting. Dead for this session.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not sure this is the place for this but some non election highlites of the MN Legislative session.

-Enhanced background checks on gun purchases and a red flag law. Passed Senate, likely to pass House and be signed by Governor.

-Marijuana legalization. Passed both houses, in conferance committee to iron out differences. Very likely to be re-passed and signed by Governor.

-Paid family and medical leave. A self-funding family and medical insurance benefit account modeled after the state’s unemployment insurance fund would be created and managed by a new Family and Medical Benefits Insurance Division within the Department of Employment and Economic Development.

A new tax on employers and employees would ultimately fund the account; the premium rate would be 0.7% of the employee’s wages, half paid by the employee and half paid by the employer. In conferance committee to iron out differences. Very likely to be re-passed and signed by Governor.

[Minnesota Mike]

Today the House and Senate passed the state goverment/elections omnibus bill mentioned above. Just a governors signature (guaranteed) away from the mentioned provisions becoming law.

A little housekeeping from the conversation at the start of this thread, it is possible to redistrict mid decade, at least legislative seats, as the bill did change a handful of state house and senate seats. Before anyone gets too exited it was all minor changes to clean up the maps and did not change political lean of any of the effected districts at all.

[henster]

-For a political party to maintain major party status, their candidate must receive at least 8% of votes at a state general election beginning Nov. 7, 2024. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law. (goodbye weed parties).

I don't even know how they could justify being a political party any longer after pot is legalized anyways. Their whole existence is ironic because the party was one of the biggest obstacles to legalization with them siphoning votes from pro-pot candidates who could actually win. But that was probably the goal all along..

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

-For a political party to maintain major party status, their candidate must receive at least 8% of votes at a state general election beginning Nov. 7, 2024. In omnibus bill, likely to be passed and signed into law. (goodbye weed parties).

I don't even know how they could justify being a political party any longer after pot is legalized anyways. Their whole existence is ironic because the party was one of the biggest obstacles to legalization with them siphoning votes from pro-pot candidates who could actually win. But that was probably the goal all along..

Their vote base came from as a generic protest vote, not anything about pot or ideological. Outstate they probably took more from Republicans (compare the 2020 results to the 2020 Senate ones.)

They were toast anyway even without any changes, one already failed major party status after 2022 and the other one would've had to break 5% against Amy Klobuchar or as a Presidential ticket...not gonna happen.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So of the five Republicans who voted for the marijuana legalization bill:

Pat Garofalo (R-Farmington): He represents a pretty safe seat (fringes of the metro, southern exurbs), but he's also been a longterm support of marijuana legalization and voted for the bill in 2021, (he also has a few maverick tendencies, regularly retweeted Justin Amash when he was in Congress, also debunked some idiotic alt-right types at times.) He voted against the original bill before the conference committee but said that was because he objected to some provisions involving the current hemp industry and medical industries and if these were changed he'd support it, he also spoke against "woke garbage" in the bill, probably referring to an initial zip code based system to grant priority for issuing retailer licenses that was obviously a stand-in for race which would be illegal to be used (that part has been removed.)

Shane Hudella (R-Hastings): Represents a swing district in the southeast metro that Walz carried by 3 points and he didn't win by a whole lot. However his vote was likely sincere, his background is one of those libertarian-ish ex-career military types and he even was just one of two Republicans who voted for the initial bill before conference.

Patty Mueller (R-Austin): This one is a bit of an outlier. She represents a pretty safe outstate seat, although it's a very Obama/Trump district, Obama probably came close to 60% in 2012, the city of Austin still votes D and was won by Biden by double digits but not by enough to outvote the rest of the district. Even Jensen won this district by 4 points, and Walz might've gotten a home field boost. However she's pretty socially conservative, in fact her husband was a member of Austin's Human Rights Commission but was ousted by the Austin City Council because he was associated with the Minnesota Family Council. But also...born in 1981, did some missionary work overseas, probably a bit too cosmopolitan and modern to buy into "reefer madness" type stuff even if a socon, although that makes the younger Republicans who voted no look even more pathetic.

Roger Skraba (R-Ely): Covered above. Swing district but very Obama/Trump-esque, he barely won...goes to show this isn't unpopular anywhere that's competitive.

Nolan West (R-Blaine): Despite being from Blaine, his seat is pretty safe, it's the northern part of the city that then extends into exurbs and all Republican candidates won it in 2022. But he's only 32, gave a pretty amusing and good speech in support of the bill on its first go-around, and was the other Republican to vote for it besides Huddella (and in 2021 as well.) So obviously a sincere vote from a heterodox Republican.