It looks like a bunch of pollsters...

[pbrower2a]

Pick your metaphor. I can suggest

(1) have egg on their faces
(2) are eating crow

Does anyone have any explanations?

Here's my suggestion:

Separate the electorate into

(1) those who have already voted
(2) likely voters
(3) not-so-likely voters

Those who have already voters are as certain as is possible. The only questions are of disqualifications (including deaths).  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a good rule for pollsters: don't adjust your numbers based on a "shy voter" effect you think might happen.

I can also safely predict that anyone who unironically cites Trafalgar or RCP in future election polling boards will never be taken seriously again.

[wbrocks67]

I think a lot of the partisan polls predicated their poll on a GOP turnout surge which didn't happen (except for FL and NY, apparently, and those were state-specific issues clearly). But also some of the totals inside were whack.

Crosstabs are messy, but I rung the alarm in PA in particular. There is no way you consistently get a composite that has Oz winning 25% of the black vote and winning 75% of Hispanics, even WITH variance. Just sh*tty pollsters.

[It’s so Joever]

I think a lot of the partisan polls predicated their poll on a GOP turnout surge which didn't happen (except for FL and NY, apparently, and those were state-specific issues clearly). But also some of the totals inside were whack.

Crosstabs are messy, but I rung the alarm in PA in particular. There is no way you consistently get a composite that has Oz winning 25% of the black vote and winning 75% of Hispanics, even WITH variance. Just sh*tty pollsters.

…You were right.

[Alben Barkley]

I wonder if there was something to the idea that a lot of sketchy right-wing pollsters were "flooding the zone" with low quality/skewed/cherrypicked polls to push a narrative towards the end. Because without those the polls actually weren't all that bad.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I almost wonder if we should just go an election cycle without any polls, period, now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I almost wonder if we should just go an election cycle without any polls, period, now.

Are you trying to drive this site out of business?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 5o percent Approval

[Fancyarcher]

Very obviously it was mostly bad GOP flooding the zone, but also overcorrection played a part in the case of some of the less Republican leaning pollsters who were off.

Emerson in particular looks to be at fault for this, even if some of their results were still good. Lots of misses most notably Nevada (the hell?).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very obviously it was mostly bad GOP flooding the zone, but also overcorrection played a part in the case of some of the less Republican leaning pollsters who were off.

Emerson in particular looks to be at fault for this, even if some of their results were still good. Lots of misses most notably Nevada (the hell?).

Polls underestimating Democrats in Nevada has been common for a long time.  One theory is that it's hard for them to reach the entertainment sector workers in Vegas, who are predominantly D.

[Fancyarcher]

Very obviously it was mostly bad GOP flooding the zone, but also overcorrection played a part in the case of some of the less Republican leaning pollsters who were off.

Emerson in particular looks to be at fault for this, even if some of their results were still good. Lots of misses most notably Nevada (the hell?).

Polls underestimating Democrats in Nevada has been common for a long time.  One theory is that it's hard for them to reach the entertainment sector workers in Vegas, who are predominantly D.

Yes, but even then the polls demographics were ridiculous. It had Laxalt whipping the floor with Hispanics. Obviously a case of a state that is hard to poll, but it's looking to be quite off.

[oldtimer]

I almost wonder if we should just go an election cycle without any polls, period, now.

The only usufull poll for years has only been Selzer's final Iowa poll.

Pollsters should just try to learn how to replicate it by Setzer herself, because when she dies we will be truly blind going into Election Day.

Grassley only +12 was a good warning. 

[wbrocks67]

Very obviously it was mostly bad GOP flooding the zone, but also overcorrection played a part in the case of some of the less Republican leaning pollsters who were off.

Emerson in particular looks to be at fault for this, even if some of their results were still good. Lots of misses most notably Nevada (the hell?).

Polls underestimating Democrats in Nevada has been common for a long time.  One theory is that it's hard for them to reach the entertainment sector workers in Vegas, who are predominantly D.

Yes, but even then the polls demographics were ridiculous. It had Laxalt whipping the floor with Hispanics. Obviously a case of a state that is hard to poll, but it's looking to be quite off.

Yeah, I get that we're dealing with small samples, but pollsters need to come up with something better for polling these groups. I don't know what the answer is, but if you can't poll young people or minorities correctly to get a *somewhat* okay sample, then you just shouldn't poll. A lot of those crosstabs wildly swung a lot of polling results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 50 percent Approvals because if he replicated the blue wall and we did that's all we need to win 24, Trump and DeSantis have zero chance to win all we need is WI, PA and MI and CO, NV and GA, AZ or VA, we lost WI Sen and NV GOV but we won WI GOV and NV S

I said Approvals lied they lied during the NY 19 and AK special