IA-AG (Selzer): Miller +2
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  IA-AG (Selzer): Miller +2
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Author Topic: IA-AG (Selzer): Miller +2  (Read 999 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 05, 2022, 07:45:39 PM »

47% Tom Miller (D-inc.)
45% Brenna Bird (R)

In their October poll, Miller led by 16 points (49-33).*

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/06/iowa-poll-attorney-general-race-tom-miller-lead-brenna-bird/69616569007/

*Note: I do not believe that there has been a 14-point shift in favor of the GOP in a single month here, and neither should you.
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2022, 08:07:20 PM »

Reposting this in the relevant thread:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/06/iowa-poll-attorney-general-race-tom-miller-lead-brenna-bird/69616569007/

AG Tom Miller (D) leads Republican challenger Brenna Bird 47-45. Miller has served as AG since 1995 and previously served as AG from 1979-1991. His closest race was winning by 8 in 1994, he's only lost once in 1974 (when he lost by 5). The fact that this is close says a lot about how far Iowa has drifted to the right.

Anyways, I'll say that any Republican being at 33% in Iowa is totally ridiculous, and it was obvious that most of the undecideds were just Republicans who didn't want to admit it.
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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2022, 08:11:28 PM »

Miller should still win, but a defeat is not hard to imagine, but even if he wins, this will be the closest win of his career.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2022, 08:15:36 PM »

Miller will likely lose, by the way. Same poll has Grassley ahead by a very underwhelming 53-41, and itís not hard to figure out how the "undecideds" are leaning here.

Strongly suspect this is another Hubbell 2018 situation (where they had the losing Democrat "ahead" 46-44 in their final poll).
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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2022, 08:31:09 PM »

Miller will likely lose, by the way. Same poll has Grassley ahead by a very underwhelming 53-41, and itís not hard to figure out how the "undecideds" are leaning here.

Strongly suspect this is another Hubbell 2018 situation (where they had the losing Democrat "ahead" 46-44 in their final poll).
A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2022, 08:41:21 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2022, 09:01:12 PM by The End of the Titanium Tilt D Tyranny »

A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.

Hereís reality:

1. Your 'argument' that a 47-45 lead is different from a 46-44 lead is the definition of grasping at straws (margin of error is a thing, esp. as far as vote share is concerned).
2. Undecideds have consistently leaned Republican in this state.
3. Polling has consistently underestimated Republican strength in this state.
4. Your predictions have consistently overestimated Democrats virtually everywhere (thatís because you desperately want Democrats to win and arenít willing to approach things in a more objective manner).
5. I never used "absolute certainty" in my post ("Miller will likely win" and "strongly suspect" do not convey absolute certainty), so that is a lie.

Youíre not interested in arguing in good faith. Consider this my last reply to you.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2022, 10:50:57 PM »

A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.

Hereís reality:

1. Your 'argument' that a 47-45 lead is different from a 46-44 lead is the definition of grasping at straws (margin of error is a thing, esp. as far as vote share is concerned).
2. Undecideds have consistently leaned Republican in this state.
3. Polling has consistently underestimated Republican strength in this state.
4. Your predictions have consistently overestimated Democrats virtually everywhere (thatís because you desperately want Democrats to win and arenít willing to approach things in a more objective manner).
5. I never used "absolute certainty" in my post ("Miller will likely win" and "strongly suspect" do not convey absolute certainty), so that is a lie.

Youíre not interested in arguing in good faith. Consider this my last reply to you.

You may not be the worst poster on this site, in terms of the most idiotic or asinine, but you almost certainly are the worst person who posts on this site. Just unbelievably unpleasant to the core.

I hope karma catches up to you some day. And I really hope that day is Tuesday. Then again, as I've said before, if KY 2019 didn't humble you, nothing will. There will always be excuses. You can, of course, never be wrong, because narcissists never can be wrong in their eyes.
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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2022, 11:07:04 PM »

A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.

Hereís reality:

1. Your 'argument' that a 47-45 lead is different from a 46-44 lead is the definition of grasping at straws (margin of error is a thing, esp. as far as vote share is concerned).
2. Undecideds have consistently leaned Republican in this state.
3. Polling has consistently underestimated Republican strength in this state.
4. Your predictions have consistently overestimated Democrats virtually everywhere (thatís because you desperately want Democrats to win and arenít willing to approach things in a more objective manner).
5. I never used "absolute certainty" in my post ("Miller will likely win" and "strongly suspect" do not convey absolute certainty), so that is a lie.

Youíre not interested in arguing in good faith. Consider this my last reply to you.

You may not be the worst poster on this site, in terms of the most idiotic or asinine, but you almost certainly are the worst person who posts on this site. Just unbelievably unpleasant to the core.

I hope karma catches up to you some day. And I really hope that day is Tuesday. Then again, as I've said before, if KY 2019 didn't humble you, nothing will. There will always be excuses. You can, of course, never be wrong, because narcissists never can be wrong in their eyes.
Thanks for defending me here. Nonetheless, I do want to add a disclaimer that I think this is a more inexact "science" than most give it credit for and what he said about excessive trust in models is bang-on correct, no matter how repulsive you might or might not think the mouth saying that is.
If Miller loses in November I'll give him credit for getting this right if reminded, even if the thought process might not be one I agree with fully. I'd say more, but I'll leave it at that.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2022, 11:08:36 PM »

If Iowa votes him out, the state should lose all congressional representation and its electoral votes.

A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.

Here’s reality:

1. Your 'argument' that a 47-45 lead is different from a 46-44 lead is the definition of grasping at straws (margin of error is a thing, esp. as far as vote share is concerned).
2. Undecideds have consistently leaned Republican in this state.
3. Polling has consistently underestimated Republican strength in this state.
4. Your predictions have consistently overestimated Democrats virtually everywhere (that’s because you desperately want Democrats to win and aren’t willing to approach things in a more objective manner).
5. I never used "absolute certainty" in my post ("Miller will likely win" and "strongly suspect" do not convey absolute certainty), so that is a lie.

You’re not interested in arguing in good faith. Consider this my last reply to you.

You may not be the worst poster on this site, in terms of the most idiotic or asinine, but you almost certainly are the worst person who posts on this site. Just unbelievably unpleasant to the core.

I hope karma catches up to you some day. And I really hope that day is Tuesday. Then again, as I've said before, if KY 2019 didn't humble you, nothing will. There will always be excuses. You can, of course, never be wrong, because narcissists never can be wrong in their eyes.

Thank you.
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2022, 11:25:34 PM »

I'm not going to go far as IndyRep, but Miller would really like to be above 47%, and as he has noted while Selzer is better than most other Iowa polls, she still often underestimates the Republican vote, it wouldn't take much for Republicans to flip this. Tossup is fair I think, Lean R is probably also fair, Lean D is not.
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2022, 12:21:31 PM »

I don't think Miller ends up like Perdue in West Virginia, but he will probably retire based on age in 2026 and be succeded by a Republican.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2022, 09:08:45 PM »

I think Miller is going to win reelection, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he lost, and if he does win, this will be his last term.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2022, 02:45:30 AM »

2020 WV-Treasurer redux? Although I'm expecting this for 2024, if Miller keeps running for reelection.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2022, 10:28:47 AM »

2020 WV-Treasurer redux? Although I'm expecting this for 2024, if Miller keeps running for reelection.

This race seems almost comparable to Manchin's 2018 reelection, when he won narrowly over Morrisey after having defeated Raese in a landslide six years earlier. Miller didn't have a Republican opponent in 2018 and was reelected overwhelmingly against a Libertarian candidate. But now, if he wins, he won't win by more than a few percentage points. As with Manchin, he might just have enough lingering goodwill to get over the finish line one more time.
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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2022, 01:14:57 PM »

2020 WV-Treasurer redux? Although I'm expecting this for 2024, if Miller keeps running for reelection.

This race seems almost comparable to Manchin's 2018 reelection, when he won narrowly over Morrisey after having defeated Raese in a landslide six years earlier. Miller didn't have a Republican opponent in 2018 and was reelected overwhelmingly against a Libertarian candidate. But now, if he wins, he won't win by more than a few percentage points. As with Manchin, he might just have enough lingering goodwill to get over the finish line one more time.
I never thought up this comparison before, but it makes sense.
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jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2022, 04:45:09 PM »

Iowa was a disaster zone for Democrats last night...
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Spectator
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« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2022, 04:50:13 PM »


Rob Sand held on by 3000 votes somehow which is still better than I think anyone was expecting.
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