MN GOV (Trafalgar): Jensen 46 - Walz 46

[Minnesota Mike]

https://alphanews.org/exclusive-jensen-takes-lead-in-minnesota-governors-race/

I don't do decimals but for those of you who do they have Jensen up .5%

AG Race is Shulz 50 - 45.

It's Trafalgar for a very right wing website so IMO skepticism is warranted but I will put it out there.

[Sestak]

sure

[GeorgiaModerate]

x Doubt

[Aurelius]

I can believe Jensen at 46.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can believe Jensen at 46.

I can as well. But all Walz needs to win is (Jensen's vote tally)+1.

[Devout Centrist]

You know this poll is fake because the weed party is polling at 1%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just don't see any effectiveness in Jensen's campaign. Very skeptical of this.

[Eraserhead]

Wave of sh**tty Republican polls incoming.

[Orwell]

I think if you subtract 5 the AG candidate it's realistic, I think he's gonna give Ellison a scare on election night, but Ellison narrowly wins

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think if you subtract 5 the AG candidate it's realistic, I think he's gonna give Ellison a scare on election night, but Ellison narrowly wins

Nope sorry Ellisons losing. So is Blaha. It's possible only Simn and/or Walz is left for Ds

[Vosem]

I think if you subtract 5 the AG candidate it's realistic, I think he's gonna give Ellison a scare on election night, but Ellison narrowly wins

I think Ellison loses on a small leftward swing from 2020, honestly.

MN/WI/IA all have a pretty unique dynamic in that they're some of the last places in the country where the GOP can still expect to make gains persuading rural white voters, rather than just trying to juice turnout. The world where Johnson wins by a lot (you've seen polls with Democratic house effects showing him up 6 points before the recent GCB improvement; he may be on track to win by low double-digits) is a world where Jensen might eke it out, sure. (And that is in fact still a world where Whitmer/Shapiro might be winning as well.)

[sg0508]

Crime in Minneapolis and defunding the police. Let's see if all of that backfires on the Democrats in several of the governor races where just a month ago, those races seemed over. MN could be one to watch.

[Hollywood]

Crime in Minneapolis and defunding the police. Let's see if all of that backfires on the Democrats in several of the governor races where just a month ago, those races seemed over. MN could be one to watch.

That's cause Trafalgar is better at sniffing more accurate results that reside within the MOE, and there penalized for getting the race call incorrect despite getting within 1-3 points of the actual result.  Predicting a .5 Republican win in a race where the D wins by .5 makes you better than the polls that had the D winning by 8 instead of the election result of .5. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah their Trump plus 1 in MI was so accurate last time, TRUMP LOST, Walz isn't losing

Polls were so accurate in NY 19 where Pat Ryan won by 3 not lose by 8, pundits we're so accurate having AK AL Tilt towards Palin and Peltola won, the Rs or the Ds aren't sweeping everything

[Hope For A New Era]

I can believe Jensen at 46.

Universal* Law of Minnesota Elections:

R percentage: ~45%
D percentage: ~55% minus third-party percentage

*universal unless you are Amy Klobuchar

[wbrocks67]

Crime in Minneapolis and defunding the police. Let's see if all of that backfires on the Democrats in several of the governor races where just a month ago, those races seemed over. MN could be one to watch.

This would mean anything changed in terms of crime and defunding the police in the last month. Which it hasn't.

[SnowLabrador]

Crime in Minneapolis and defunding the police. Let's see if all of that backfires on the Democrats in several of the governor races where just a month ago, those races seemed over. MN could be one to watch.

This would mean anything changed in terms of crime and defunding the police in the last month. Which it hasn't.

The Republicans have grown more aggressive on this message in the closing weeks. That's why it's becoming more salient for voters now, even if the material reality of the situation hasn't really changed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think if you subtract 5 the AG candidate it's realistic, I think he's gonna give Ellison a scare on election night, but Ellison narrowly wins

Nope sorry Ellisons losing. So is Blaha. It's possible only Simn and/or Walz is left for Ds

Nope.

[President Johnson]

TRASHFALGAR

[Dani Rose]

I really, really tried to give Trafalgar the benefit of the doubt this year, but...

[Torrain]

TraFalgar

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They got the red states right Vance plus 10 Budd plus 5 but not blue states obviously