Suprising County Flips of 2022 ?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:45:29 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Suprising County Flips of 2022 ?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Suprising County Flips of 2022 ?  (Read 1971 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,700
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2022, 12:10:37 AM »

Walz easily winning but failing to retain Winona and Mower in his old congressional district
Winona is especially weird because it actually voted straight Republican on all races, even for the loony election denier running for Secretary of State who lost by a wide margin. It's the only Biden county where that happened, even as Walz picked up Rice County that Biden didn't win.

I initially assumed turnout at Winona State might've sucked like in 2016 but actually Jensen ran well ahead of Johnson in 2018 and actually ahead of Biden in 2020 in raw votes although that's not a fair comparison because Winona State was fully remote at that time. But even compared to 2018 there was no notable drop in turnout. Rural Winona County swung hard but even Winona proper did. The explanation for this is Walz's personal vote from his time in Congress fading but even that doesn't explain the drop from Biden. So the only explanations I can think of is it's something related to Winona being in a Wisconsin media market (but with the cash differentials for each candidate, it wouldn't make sense for Jensen to run ads there but not Walz) or some very local thing really soured voters onto Walz. Or maybe the Winona County DFL dropped the ball with their ground game and the Winona State College Republicans got some very amazing turnout guy running things now...probably would need local insider info.
Logged
Aurelius
Cody
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,170
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.35, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2022, 12:16:52 AM »

Aside from the Florida races, ones that stand out to me are:

Washington, AR for Governor
Geary, KS for Governor
Douglas, CO for Governor
Las Animas, CO for Governor and Senate
Jackson, IL for Governor given the bloodbath everywhere else in college counties
Benzie, MI
Grand Traverse, MI
Walz easily winning but failing to retain Winona and Mower in his old congressional district
Carson City and Washoe County getting bluer despite Clark County getting redder
Tim Ryan failing to win Mahoning County, let alone Trumpbull
Shapiro keeping all of Wolf’s 2018 counties, most notably Luzerne and Beaver
Kathy Hochul holding up decently well upstate considering the slaughter on Long Island and erosion in NYC
Virginia Beach being a tie on VA-02
Tony Evers expanding his margin but losing several counties in the process compared to 2018.

Northeast Arkansas has seen some serious, almost Atlanta like shifts. I doubt it’ll come to more then a few state senate seats, but if egregious gerrymandering is avoided I could see AR-3 being competitive in the 2030 (HYPOTHETICALLY). If you look at how the district has shrunk in the last few decades from being the entirety of NE Arkansas to just the Fort Smith/Fayetteville area.
It's possible to draw 2 Biden districts in Arkansas, and to my great surprise the one in the NW is much, much easier to draw than the one in the SE. There's a lot of 60% R in Fayetteville/Rogers/Springdale that could be 50/50 in a few cycles. Of course, the rest of the state is among the fastest R trending of anywhere in the country so this won't mean anything on the state level.

Funny thing is that in the 2010 Arkansas Dem dummymander, AR-3 is the only seat they purposefully conceded to the Republicans IIRC.
Logged
Aurelius
Cody
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,170
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.35, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 28, 2022, 12:21:06 AM »

Palm Beach and Osceola for sure. I was a bloomer on Florida all along and even I was expecting DeSantis to lose both of those by a decent margin.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 28, 2022, 12:46:10 AM »

Washington County, Arkansas is the real shocker for me. It was clearly already inevitable, but I didn't expect it until at least 2024 if not 2028, and I expected major downballot lag there (flipping first in a presidential election, and not in a state election until potentially several cycles later).
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,791
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2022, 01:00:28 AM »

Aside from the Florida races, ones that stand out to me are:

Washington, AR for Governor
Geary, KS for Governor
Douglas, CO for Governor
Las Animas, CO for Governor and Senate
Jackson, IL for Governor given the bloodbath everywhere else in college counties
Benzie, MI
Grand Traverse, MI
Walz easily winning but failing to retain Winona and Mower in his old congressional district
Carson City and Washoe County getting bluer despite Clark County getting redder
Tim Ryan failing to win Mahoning County, let alone Trumpbull
Shapiro keeping all of Wolf’s 2018 counties, most notably Luzerne and Beaver
Kathy Hochul holding up decently well upstate considering the slaughter on Long Island and erosion in NYC
Virginia Beach being a tie on VA-02
Tony Evers expanding his margin but losing several counties in the process compared to 2018.

Northeast Arkansas has seen some serious, almost Atlanta like shifts. I doubt it’ll come to more then a few state senate seats, but if egregious gerrymandering is avoided I could see AR-3 being competitive in the 2030 (HYPOTHETICALLY). If you look at how the district has shrunk in the last few decades from being the entirety of NE Arkansas to just the Fort Smith/Fayetteville area.
It's possible to draw 2 Biden districts in Arkansas, and to my great surprise the one in the NW is much, much easier to draw than the one in the SE. There's a lot of 60% R in Fayetteville/Rogers/Springdale that could be 50/50 in a few cycles. Of course, the rest of the state is among the fastest R trending of anywhere in the country so this won't mean anything on the state level.

Funny thing is that in the 2010 Arkansas Dem dummymander, AR-3 is the only seat they purposefully conceded to the Republicans IIRC.

Does anyone know how many people Arkansas would have to grow to gain a 5th seat?
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2022, 11:48:33 AM »

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2022, 06:51:04 PM »

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.
Geary has a large military population and has historically been pretty strong for the GOP. Chris Biggs somehow won it in the 2010 SoS race while losing by a 22% margin statewide--I think he was from nearby. Other than that, Kelly is the first to carry it since 2010.

I have no idea but my theory is some spillover of Manhattan suburbs?
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2022, 07:55:53 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2022, 01:13:07 AM by Hope For A New Era »

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.

I have no explanation. It is one of only four counties to swing left from four years ago. The other three are a random southwest county that swung left by 0.1, independent candidate Dennis Pyle's home county, and Johnson (which is pretty much a given these days).

The best theories I can come up with:
- Big swing to Kelly among military voters (but why?)
- Swung left because it has a city (but then why didn't any others? Like nearby Saline, which Kelly lost by the exact same margin as Geary in 2018, and which voted against the anti-abortion amendment by 10 points?)
- Somehow they got the vote totals for the two major candidates switched and no one has noticed

Geary has a large military population and has historically been pretty strong for the GOP. Chris Biggs somehow won it in the 2010 SoS race while losing by a 22% margin statewide--I think he was from nearby. Other than that, Kelly is the first to carry it since 2010.

I have no idea but my theory is some spillover of Manhattan suburbs?

Biggs was formerly the county prosecutor in Geary.
There's some serious local vote happening in the Plains in 2010 for some reason.

I can tell you for sure that it's not "suburban spillover" from Manhattan. Manhattan doesn't even come close to reaching the county line. Junction City and Manhattan are definitely not a MSP/Northwest Arkansas/etc situation. They're just two cities that happen to be close to each other and far from everything else.


EDIT: Wanted to add something I just noticed. Lyon County, Kansas voted Kelly+10 and Moran+26. That's a 36-point difference. And they said ticket-splitting was dead.

Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 29, 2022, 10:19:49 PM »

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.

Geary has a large military population and has historically been pretty strong for the GOP. Chris Biggs somehow won it in the 2010 SoS race while losing by a 22% margin statewide--I think he was from nearby. Other than that, Kelly is the first to carry it since 2010.

I have no idea but my theory is some spillover of Manhattan suburbs?

I can tell you for sure that it's not "suburban spillover" from Manhattan. Manhattan doesn't even come close to reaching the county line. Junction City and Manhattan are definitely not a MSP/Northwest Arkansas/etc situation. They're just two cities that happen to be close to each other and far from everything else.

Glad I started my comment with "I have no idea". Was the only theory that came to mind but you're right--Geary doesn't even have particularly high post-secondary degree attainment now that I look at it. It's less White than most counties but that doesn't help a ton considering historic and other-office results are so strongly GOP. And it's not like we can even chalk it up to a local effect ala 2010 or a super strong local organizing effort--nobody on the statewide ticket from Geary and Democrats left the Trump + 12 Junction City seat uncontested. Truly one of the most surprising county flips!
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 29, 2022, 11:13:09 PM »

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.

Geary has a large military population and has historically been pretty strong for the GOP. Chris Biggs somehow won it in the 2010 SoS race while losing by a 22% margin statewide--I think he was from nearby. Other than that, Kelly is the first to carry it since 2010.

I have no idea but my theory is some spillover of Manhattan suburbs?

I can tell you for sure that it's not "suburban spillover" from Manhattan. Manhattan doesn't even come close to reaching the county line. Junction City and Manhattan are definitely not a MSP/Northwest Arkansas/etc situation. They're just two cities that happen to be close to each other and far from everything else.

Glad I started my comment with "I have no idea". Was the only theory that came to mind but you're right--Geary doesn't even have particularly high post-secondary degree attainment now that I look at it. It's less White than most counties but that doesn't help a ton considering historic and other-office results are so strongly GOP. And it's not like we can even chalk it up to a local effect ala 2010 or a super strong local organizing effort--nobody on the statewide ticket from Geary and Democrats left the Trump + 12 Junction City seat uncontested. Truly one of the most surprising county flips!

It really is a mystery. Geary even voted Kobach+6 for AG (he won by 2 statewide). A whole lot of people in Geary very specifically voted Kelly for governor and R for everything else. I have to think it must be some local economic thing? Maybe some big job-creator landed there and the locals credited Kelly for it or something?

That or the vote totals really are switched - a Schmidt+5 result would be very much in line with results in other races and other counties this year, results in 2018, and the county's voting history.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 11 queries.