Final Midterm election predictions
Senator-elect Spark:
U.S. Senate
AL: Katie Britt (R) 63% , Will Boyd (D): 35%
AK: Lisa Murkowski (R) 51% , Kelly Tshibaka (R) 48%
AZ: Blake Masters (R): 50%, Mark Kelly (D, inc.) 48.3%
AR: John Boozman (R): 60%, Natalie James (D) 36%
CA: Alex Padilla (D): 63%, Mark Meuser (R) 36%
CO: Michael Bennet (D, inc.) 51%, Joe O'Dea (R): 44%
CT: Richard Blumenthal (D, inc.) 61%, Leora Levy (R): 35%
FL: Marco Rubio (R, inc.) 52%, Val Demings (D): 44%
GA: Hershel Walker (R): 49.5%, Raphael Warnock (D, inc.) 47%
HI: Brian Schatz (R) 72%, Bob McDermott (R) 26%
IA: Chuck Grassley (R, inc.) 55%, Michael Franken (D): 41%
ID: Mike Crapo (R, inc.) 68%, David Roth (D): 24%
IL: Tammy Duckworth (D, inc.) 53%, Kathy Salvi (R) 44%
IN: Todd Young (R, inc.) 56% , Thomas McDermott Jr. (D) 40%
KS: Jerry Moran (R, inc.) 63% , Mark Holland (D) 31%
KY: Rand Paul (R, inc.) 62%, Charles Booker (D): 36%
LA: John Kennedy (R, inc.) 53%, Gary Chambers Jr. (D) 20%
MD: Chris Van Hollen (D, inc.) 60%, Chris Chafee (R) 36%
MO: Eric Schmitt (R) 56%, Lucas Kunce (D) 42%
NV: Adam Laxalt (R) 48.7%, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D, inc.): 47.5%
NY: Chuck Schumer (D, inc.) 68%, Aleksander Mici 28%
NH: Maggie Hassan (D, inc.) 48.7%, Donald Bolduc (R): 47.9%
NC: Ted Budd (R) 50.5%, Cheri Beasley (D): 47.5%
ND: John Hoeven (R, inc.) 81%, Katrina Christensen (D) 18%
OH: J.D. Vance (R) 55%, Tim Ryan (D): 44%
OK (regular): James Lankford (R, inc.) 69%,, Madison Horn 28%
OK (special): Markwayne Mullen (R) 67%,, Kendra Horn (D): 31%
OR: Ron Wyden (D, inc.) 65%, Jo Rae Perkins (R) 34%
PA: Mehmet Oz (R) 49.0%, John Fetterman (D) 47.9%
SC: Tim Scott (R, inc.) 61%, Krystle Matthews (D): 36%
SD: John Thune (R, inc.) 71%, Brian Bengs (D): 26%
UT: Mike Lee (R, inc.) 51%, Evan McMullin (I): 39%
VT: Peter Welch (D) 61% Christina Nolan (R): 28%
WA: Patty Murray (D) 53% , Tiffany Smiley (R): 44%
WI: Ron Johnson (R, inc.) 51%, Mandela Barnes (D): 47%
Governor
AL: Kay Ivey (R) 67%, Yolanda Flowers 32%
AR: Sarah Huckabee Sanders 65%, Chris Jones (D) 33%
AZ: Karri Lake (R) 51%, Katie Hobbs (D) 48%
AK: Mike Dunleavy (R, inc.) 51%, Bill Walker (I) 48%
CA: Gavin Newsom (D, inc.) 61%, Brian Dahle (R): 38%
CO: Jared Polis (D, inc.) 53%, Heidi Ganahl: 45%
CT: Ned Lamont (D, inc.) 52%, Bob Stefanoski (R): 46%
FL: Ron DeSantis (R, inc.) 55%, Charlie Crist (D): 42%
GA: Brian Kemp (R): 52%, Stacey Abrams: 45%
HI: Josh Green (D): 65%, Duke Aiona 33%
ID: Brad Little (R) 68%, Stephen Heidt 30%
IL: J.B. Pritzker (D, inc.): 52%, Darren Bailey (R): 46%
IA: Kim Reynolds (R, inc.): 56%, Deidre DeJear (D): 42%
KS: Derek Schmidt (R): 51%, Laura Kelly (D, inc.): 48%
MA: Maura Healey (D): 63%, Geoff Diehl (R): 36%
MD: Wes Moore (D): 56%, Daniel Cox 44%
ME: Janet Mills (D, inc.): 49.5%, Paul LePage (R): 46.5%
MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc.): 50.5%, Tudor Dixon (R): 48.5%
MN: Tim Walz (D, inc.): 49.5%, Scott Jensen: 46.5%
NE: Jim Pillen: 61%, Carol Blood (D): 38%
NH: Chris Sununu (R): 56%, Tom Sherman (D): 41%
NV: Joe Lombardo (R): 50%, Steve Sisolak (D, inc.): 48%
NM: Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D, inc.): 55%, Marc Ronchetti (R): 44%
NY: Kathy Hochul (D, inc.): 52%, Lee Zeldin (R): 44%
OH: Mike DeWine (R): 56%, Nan Whaley (D): 38%
OK: Kevin Stitt (R): 54%, Joy Hofmeister (D): 45%
OR: Tina Kotek (D): 44%, Christine Drazan (R): 41%, Betsy Johnson (I) 8%
PA: Josh Shapiro (D): 50%, Doug Mastriano (R): 47%
RI: Daniel McKee (D, inc.): 61%, Ashley Kalus 36%
SC: Henry McMaster (R, inc.): 56%, Joe Cunningham (D): 42%
SD: Kristi Noem (R, inc.): 54%, Jamie Smith (D): 45%
TX: Greg Abbott (R, inc.): 53%, Beto O’Rourke (D): 44%
VT: Phil Scott (R, inc.): 56%, Doug Racine (D): 42%
WI: Tim Michels (R): 49.4%, Tony Evers (D, inc.): 48.3%
WY: Mark Gordon (R, inc.): 72%, Chris Ruthfuss (D): 26%
Senator-elect Spark:
Maps
U.S. Senate
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GOP
Pick-ups: NV, AZ (+2)
Run-off: (1)
DEM
Pick-ups: None (0)
Overall control: GOP 52-48.
Governor
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GOP
Pick-ups: NV, WI, KS (+3)
DEM
Pick-ups: MA, MD (2)
ElectionsGuy:
Senate
County Map (key races)
Three increments: <60%, 60-70%, >70% for both parties. Green in Utah = McMullin. Yellow in Alaska = Tsibaka.
Ratings
Likely = >90% chance
Lean = 70-90% chance
Tilt = 50-70% chance
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Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 0
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 3
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 47
Dems: 46
Reps: 54 ✓ (+4)
Predictions (Rounded to nearest 0.5%)
Alaska: 53.5% Murkowski, 46.5% Tshibaka (Safe R, Likely Murkowski)
Arizona: 50.5% Masters, 49.0% Kelly
Colorado: 52.0% Bennet, 46.5% O’Dea
Florida: 55.0% Rubio, 44.0% Demings
Georgia: 49.0% Walker, 47.5% Warnock (Lean Runoff)
If Runoff: 51.0% Walker, 49.0% Warnock
Nevada: 50.5% Laxalt, 46.5% Cortez-Masto
New Hampshire: 49.0% Bolduc, 49.0% Hassan (--> Tilt R)
North Carolina: 53.5% Budd, 45.5% Beasley
Ohio: 55.5% Vance, 44.5% Ryan
Pennsylvania: 50.5% Oz, 47.0% Fetterman
Washington: 54.0% Murray, 46.0% Smiley
Wisconsin: 53.0% Johnson, 47.0% Barnes
Overall Rating: Lean R (around 80% chance R’s take Senate)
Governors
County Map (key races + some others)
Ratings
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Republicans: 30 (+4, -2)
Democrats: 20 (+2, -4)
Predictions
Alaska: 54.0% Dunleavy, 46.0% Gara
or 53.0% Dunleavy, 47.0% Walker
Arizona: 52.5% Lake, 47.5% Hobbs
Connecticut: 55.0% Lamont, 44.5% Stefanowski
Florida: 55.5% DeSantis, 43.5% Crist
Georgia: 53.5% Kemp, 45.5% Abrams
Illinois: 53.5% Pritzker, 44.5% Bailey
Kansas: 52.0% Schmidt, 46.0% Kelly
Maine: 50.0% Mills, 48.5% LePage
Michigan: 49.5% Dixon, 49.0% Whitmer
Minnesota: 50.5% Walz, 47.5% Jensen
Nevada: 51.0% Lombardo, 46.5% Sisolak
New York: 53.5% Hochul, 46.5% Zeldin
New Mexico: 50.0% Grisham, 49.0% Ronchetti
Oregon: 46.5% Kotek, 46.0% Drazan
Pennsylvania: 51.0% Shapiro, 48.0% Mastriano (--> Lean D)
Rhode Island: 56.0% McKee, 43.0% Kalus
Texas: 55.5% Abbott, 43.0% O’Rourke
Wisconsin: 51.5% Michels, 48.0% Evers
House
Ratings
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=idrd
Likely D: CA-21, CA-26, CT-02, FL-09, FL-23, IL-08, IL-11, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NM-01, NY-04, NC-14, OR-04, PA-04, PA-12, TX-28, VA-10
Lean D: CA-09, CO-07, GA-02, IL-06, IL-14, IN-01, NH-02, NM-03, NC-06, OR-06, PA-06, TX-34
Tilt D: AZ-04, CA-47, CA-49, CT-05, IL-13, MD-06, MI-03, MI-08, NV-01, NV-04, NY-17, RI-02
Tilt R: AK-AL, CA-13, CA-27, IL-17, KS-03, MN-02, NV-03, NM-02, NY-03, NY-18, NY-22, NC-01, OH-01, OR-05, PA-17, VA-07, WA-08
Lean R: AZ-01, CO-08, CA-22, CA-45, FL-27, IA-03, ME-02, MI-07, NH-01, NY-19, NC-13, OH-09, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02
Likely R: AZ-02, AZ-06, CA-03, CA-40, CA-41, FL-15, FL-28, IA-01, MI-10, NE-02, NJ-07, NY-01, NY-02, TX-15, WI-03
Safe D: 151 (inc. TX-35)
Safe R: 194 (inc. FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, MT-01, OH-14, TN-05, TX-38)
Total D: 193 (-29)
Total R: 242 ✓ (+29)
Overall House vote
Republicans: 52.5% (+6.0%)
Democrats: 46.5%
Overall Rating: Safe R
I'll make another post solely dedicated to commentary and analysis later tonight, but as far as raw predictions go, this is it for me.
ListMan38:
U.S. House
252 R-183 D
U.S. Senate
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GOP
Pick-ups: GA (election day or runoff), AZ, NH (+3)
DEM
Pick-ups: None (0)
Overall control: GOP 53-47.
Governor
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GOP
Pick-ups: WI, KS (+2)
DEM
Pick-ups: MA, MD (+2)
President Johnson:
Ok, I'll have a try.
SENATE
52 - 48 Republican
Arizona: Kelly 50.5%, Masters 48.7%
Colorado: Bennet 53.2%, O'Dea 43.7%
Florida: Rubio 54.7%, Demings 44.8%
Georgia: Walker 49.3%, Warnock 48.4% (Runoff: Walker 50.5%, Warnock 49.5%)
Iowa: Grassley 58.0%, Franken 40.9%
Nevada: Laxalt 49.5%, Cortez-Masto 46.8%
New Hampshire: Hassan 50.8%, Bolduc 48.0%
North Carolina: Budd 52.0%, Beasley 46.7%
Ohio: Vance 55.0%, Ryan 44.6%
Pennsylvania: Oz 49.7%, Fetterman 48.9%
Washington: Murray 55.5%, Smiley 44.5%
Wisconsin: Johnson 52.8%, Barnes 47.2%
HOUSE
237-198 Republican
GOVERNORS
Arizona: Lake 50.3%, Hobbs 48.0%
Connecticut: Lamont 54.0%, Stefanowski 44.8%
Florida: DeSantis 56.0%, Crist 42.9%
Georgia: Kemp 52.8%, Abrams 46.2%
Kansas: Schmidt 51.5%, Kelly 47.9%
Maine: Mills 51.2%, LePage 45.9%
Michigan: Whitmer 52.3%, Dixon 47.0%
Minnesota: Walz 50.9%, Jensen 44.1%
Nevada: Lombardo 50.0%, Sisolak 47.2%
New York: Hochul 57.7%, Zeldin 42.2%
New Mexico: Grisham 51.4%, Ronchetti 47.3%
Oregon: Drazan 45.5%, Kotek 44.9%, Johnson 8.1%
Pennsylvania: Shapiro 54.3%, Mastriano 45.5%
Texas: Abbott 54.9%, O'Rourke 42.6%
Wisconsin: Michels 50.2%, Evers 49.0%
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