Maine 2nd - University of NH - Golden +1

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1589410548202246145?t=SxCd5gkD7A0YJtIyn9uj...

[SnowLabrador]

This is probably going to slip away from Golden, but Mills will win (though not by this much.) Go with the fundamentals, not the polls.

[soundchaser]

It’s weird that this poll doesn’t discuss RCV at all outside of saying “but hey, it could make a difference!”, right?

[S019]

I wonder how those undecideds are will break and also how many Bond voters are just people who don't like both parties/can't choose between the candidate versus actually supporting Bond's campaign, I suspect a surprising number of these people will vote blank or even rank Poliquin second.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder how those undecideds are will break and also how many Bond voters are just people who don't like both parties/can't choose between the candidate versus actually supporting Bond's campaign, I suspect a surprising number of these people will not blank or even rank Poliquin second.

The SUSA poll had most of the Bond voters going to Golden

[S019]

I wonder how those undecideds are will break and also how many Bond voters are just people who don't like both parties/can't choose between the candidate versus actually supporting Bond's campaign, I suspect a surprising number of these people will not blank or even rank Poliquin second.

The SUSA poll had most of the Bond voters going to Golden

I don't believe Republicans will end at 46-47% here and neither should you.

[Devils30]

Unlike other places, this district has genuine ticket splitting.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

[S019]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

Or....it turns out that fundamentals matter and Democrats were not actually going to win a Trump+6 seat while losing several Biden+7-15 seats.

[Adam Griffin]

FWIW, here's the redistribution of Bond & Hoar's votes in 2018 (8.1% of first round total):

10427 44.51% Golden
8253  35.23% Exhausted
4747  20.26% Poliquin

Transferrables went 69/31 in favor of Golden.

[DaleCooper]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

Or....it turns out that fundamentals matter and Democrats were not actually going to win a Trump+6 seat while losing several Biden+7-15 seats.

No, there's no recent precedent (if there is one at all) for the Democrats' total inability to appeal to anyone who voted for a presidential candidate of the opposing party. This is an issue of the national party's platform being completely rotten to the core in the eyes of half the country. This is the consequence of the Dems' decision to eliminate persuasion from their strategy and focus solely on turning out the people that already like them.

[Dani Rose]

I see we've once again decided to take a poll that shows us in the lead (without even taking RCV into account!) as evidence that Armageddon is upon us.

[wbrocks67]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

Or....it turns out that fundamentals matter and Democrats were not actually going to win a Trump+6 seat while losing several Biden+7-15 seats.

No, there's no recent precedent (if there is one at all) for the Democrats' total inability to appeal to anyone who voted for a presidential candidate of the opposing party. This is an issue of the national party's platform being completely rotten to the core in the eyes of half the country. This is the consequence of the Dems' decision to eliminate persuasion from their strategy and focus solely on turning out the people that already like them.

You have got to be kidding me with this. And the GOP is trying to do this?

[DaleCooper]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

Or....it turns out that fundamentals matter and Democrats were not actually going to win a Trump+6 seat while losing several Biden+7-15 seats.

No, there's no recent precedent (if there is one at all) for the Democrats' total inability to appeal to anyone who voted for a presidential candidate of the opposing party. This is an issue of the national party's platform being completely rotten to the core in the eyes of half the country. This is the consequence of the Dems' decision to eliminate persuasion from their strategy and focus solely on turning out the people that already like them.

You have got to be kidding me with this. And the GOP is trying to do this?

They are. They're much better lately at centering their campaigns around issues that people are currently worried about. They also have been smart about expanding their propaganda into communities they used to be really weak in, like hispanic areas. The Democrats don't do this, at least not that I have seen.

[MT Treasurer]

Golden only loses in a massive GOP wave, but his biggest problem is that there is no other federal race on the ballot which voters could use to express their opposition to Biden/national Democrats. His district is precisely the type where the bottom will fall out for Democrats, and that might just be too much even for him.

I also think LePage will run extremely strong here and win by double digits, which won’t help.

[It’s so Joever]

Golden only loses in a massive GOP wave, but his biggest problem is that there is no other federal race on the ballot which voters could use to express their opposition to Biden/national Democrats. His district is precisely the type where the bottom will fall out for Democrats, and that might just be too much even for him.

I also think LePage will run extremely strong here and win by double digits, which won’t help.

For a second I thought you meant statewide a double digit win and was very confused.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Golden is gonna win and he is gonna win in 24 with Angus King and run against vulnerable Collins in 26 she won I. 2020 Voting Rights wasn't filibustered and she did it to elect LePage and he FAILED

[Hope For A New Era]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

Or....it turns out that fundamentals matter and Democrats were not actually going to win a Trump+6 seat while losing several Biden+7-15 seats.

No, there's no recent precedent (if there is one at all) for the Democrats' total inability to appeal to anyone who voted for a presidential candidate of the opposing party. This is an issue of the national party's platform being completely rotten to the core in the eyes of half the country. This is the consequence of the Dems' decision to eliminate persuasion from their strategy and focus solely on turning out the people that already like them.

No, you've got the order wrong. We started doing that because voters stopped being persuadable.

[DaleCooper]

We are absolutely doomed. Goldens crossover appeal is enormous. If he’s losing, god help us

Or....it turns out that fundamentals matter and Democrats were not actually going to win a Trump+6 seat while losing several Biden+7-15 seats.

No, there's no recent precedent (if there is one at all) for the Democrats' total inability to appeal to anyone who voted for a presidential candidate of the opposing party. This is an issue of the national party's platform being completely rotten to the core in the eyes of half the country. This is the consequence of the Dems' decision to eliminate persuasion from their strategy and focus solely on turning out the people that already like them.

No, you've got the order wrong. We started doing that because voters stopped being persuadable.

LOL!

Always an excuse.