NH-Wick-tied

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589295150303694849

Fwiw, I went to 538 to investigate wick

538 has analyzed 7 wick polls since 2017

Here is the verdict: in 2020, they overestimated djt in Michigan, PA, and Georgia by about 2 points

They underestimated him in Ohio and Florida by an average of 4 points

They got it about right in NC (off by 0.7 in DJT’s direction)

In 2017, they polled the Ossof House jungle primary and got it pretty close (ossof +27.9, actual ossof +28.4)

I am not sure if they are gop or not

[Woody]

Yeah, I have seen enough. Tilt R.

[here2view]

Climbing Don

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Would be pure fate if Hassan goes out the way she came into office. A 0.1% margin.

[Senator Incitatus]

Fascinating that the same poll is only Sununu +10. I saw that result and came over here expecting to see Hassan +5. Maybe I have totally underestimated Bolduc (after being one of his biggest defenders for months).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am anxiously waiting the results

[Person Man]

If Hassan loses, this has to give Trump an advantage going to 2024, if but a small one. After all, NH was the most D of the 6 swing states this year and would mean Trump’s handpicked candidates won every one. If Republicans end up gaining 4 seats post-Dobbs, it’s probably time for Democrats to start completely over and that Trump comes into 2024 as the functional incumbent.  That said, this poll is an outlier. This poll is bold and from an outfit that looks kind of contrived.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan loses, this has to give Trump an advantage going to 2024, if but a small one. If Republicans end up gaining 4 seats post-Dobbs, it’s probably time for Democrats to start completely over. That said, this poll is an outlier.

They won't gain 4 Seats, more Ds have Early voted than Rs and GCB is D 48/47

[Brother Jonathan]

It is somewhat odd that the poll has a smaller than most lead for Sununu while also showing Bolduc tied, but that might just be both races reverting towards the national environment relative to NH's partisanship, so Bolduc is starting to move up and Sununu is coming to earth a bit (though 10 points is really still a healthy margin). Or the sample could just be odd, who knows.

Edit: If they are a Republican pollster, which it sounds like they are, then that also explains it and it is probably just a quality thing, though having Sununu lower is an odd point.

[Orwell]

It is somewhat odd that the poll has a smaller than most lead for Sununu while also showing Bolduc tied, but that might just be both races reverting towards the national environment relative to NH's partisanship, so Bolduc is starting to move up and Sununu is coming to earth a bit (though 10 points is really still a healthy margin). Or the sample could just be odd, who knows.

To be fair, Bolduc and Sununu are very different candidates.

[Eraserhead]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589295150303694849

Fwiw, I went to 538 to investigate wick

538 has analyzed 7 wick polls since 2017

Here is the verdict: in 2020, they overestimated djt in Michigan, PA, and Georgia by about 2 points

They underestimated him in Ohio and Florida by an average of 4 points

They got it about right in NC (off by 0.7 in DJT’s direction)

In 2017, they polled the Ossof House jungle primary and got it pretty close (ossof +27.9, actual ossof +28.4)

I am not sure if they are gop or not

They are a Republican pollster. They polled the abortion amendment in Kansas earlier this year and missed the result by about 20 points.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589295150303694849
Fwiw, I went to 538 to investigate wick

538 has analyzed 7 wick polls since 2017

Here is the verdict: in 2020, they overestimated djt in Michigan, PA, and Georgia by about 2 points

They underestimated him in Ohio and Florida by an average of 4 points

They got it about right in NC (off by 0.7 in DJT’s direction)

In 2017, they polled the Ossof House jungle primary and got it pretty close (ossof +27.9, actual ossof +28.4)

I am not sure if they are gop or not

They are a Republican pollster. They polled the abortion amendment in Kansas earlier this year and missed the result by about 20 points.

They also have Sununu ahead by just 10. Whether that makes this poll more credible or not I don't know.

[TodayJunior]

A real sleeper race.

[Vosem]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589295150303694849

Fwiw, I went to 538 to investigate wick

538 has analyzed 7 wick polls since 2017

Here is the verdict: in 2020, they overestimated djt in Michigan, PA, and Georgia by about 2 points

They underestimated him in Ohio and Florida by an average of 4 points

They got it about right in NC (off by 0.7 in DJT’s direction)

In 2017, they polled the Ossof House jungle primary and got it pretty close (ossof +27.9, actual ossof +28.4)

I am not sure if they are gop or not

They are a Republican pollster. They polled the abortion amendment in Kansas earlier this year and missed the result by about 20 points.

Their general record at House races is actually kind of amazing, but you're right that the referendum outcome is so bizarrely bad it casts a shadow on all of their other work.

Eh; throw it in the average. Sununu has endorsed Bolduc and campaigned for him, even though he was against him in the primary, so I don't think it's insane to imagine the two of them becoming more tied to each other; if the Bolduc campaign is successful, it's probably dragging Sununu down to some degree.

[Senator Incitatus]

Fascinated by this poll finding that the very small number (1%) of undecideds would break 95–5 for Bolduc if pushed to lean. Not sure I've ever seen anything like that but would be huge if replicated elsewhere (even taking the massive MoE into account).

[President Johnson]

It seems like this race is tightened in the last few days? Could be close to a 2014 redux, although the Republican candidate is arguably worse this time.

[MT Treasurer]

No one will be more pleased with Crashing Maggie losing by that margin than the following two people:

1. Kelly Ayotte
2. Rick Scott (who is so fond of Titanium Tilt R elections that he does everything possible to turn even safe R races into Titanium Tilt R contests)

[fluffypanther19]

still think hassan got this, but bolduc is running a much better campaign than he is getting credit for

[ListMan38]

Have my doubts about this pollster but yea this race looks tighter than many give it credit for.

[wbrocks67]

still think hassan got this, but bolduc is running a much better campaign than he is getting credit for

He's literally talking about cat litter boxes in schools in the final days.

[kwabbit]

still think hassan got this, but bolduc is running a much better campaign than he is getting credit for

He's literally talking about cat litter boxes in schools in the final days.

Bolduc is better at staying on-topic and isn't gaffe prone than a lot of the GOP Senate candidates. He doesn't say completely nonsensical things like Walker does nor does he shoot himself in the foot like Oz often does. The cat litter box thing is a really stupid thing to talk about, but it's so stupid that it isn't significant to the campaign.

For the most part, being a GOP candidate this year is like being on easy mode. Bolduc's been largely staying on message about Hassan = Biden = Inflation, which is why he's put Hassan on the defensive. Bolduc, relative to fundamentals, might be doing the best out of any GOP senate candidate in a competitive race. Biden won NH by 7.