IA-AG (Selzer): Miller +2

[S019]

Reposting this in the relevant thread:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/06/iowa-poll-attorney-general-race-tom-miller-lead-brenna-bird/69616569007/

AG Tom Miller (D) leads Republican challenger Brenna Bird 47-45. Miller has served as AG since 1995 and previously served as AG from 1979-1991. His closest race was winning by 8 in 1994, he's only lost once in 1974 (when he lost by 5). The fact that this is close says a lot about how far Iowa has drifted to the right.

Anyways, I'll say that any Republican being at 33% in Iowa is totally ridiculous, and it was obvious that most of the undecideds were just Republicans who didn't want to admit it.

[S019]

I'm not going to go far as IndyRep, but Miller would really like to be above 47%, and as he has noted while Selzer is better than most other Iowa polls, she still often underestimates the Republican vote, it wouldn't take much for Republicans to flip this. Tossup is fair I think, Lean R is probably also fair, Lean D is not.