If Iowa votes him out, the state should lose all congressional representation and its electoral votes.
A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.
Here’s reality:
1. Your 'argument' that a 47-45 lead is different from a 46-44 lead is the definition of grasping at straws (margin of error is a thing, esp. as far as vote share is concerned).
2. Undecideds have consistently leaned Republican in this state.
3. Polling has consistently underestimated Republican strength in this state.
4. Your predictions have consistently overestimated Democrats virtually everywhere (that’s because you desperately want Democrats to win and aren’t willing to approach things in a more objective manner).
5. I never used "absolute certainty" in my post ("Miller will likely win" and "strongly suspect" do not convey absolute certainty), so that is a lie.
You’re not interested in arguing in good faith. Consider this my last reply to you.
You may not be the worst poster on this site, in terms of the most idiotic or asinine, but you almost certainly are the worst person who posts on this site. Just unbelievably unpleasant to the core.
I hope karma catches up to you some day. And I really hope that day is Tuesday. Then again, as I've said before, if KY 2019 didn't humble you, nothing will. There will always be excuses. You can, of course, never be wrong, because narcissists never can be wrong in their eyes.
Thank you.