A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.
Here’s reality:
1. Your 'argument' that a 47-45 lead is different from a 46-44 lead is the definition of grasping at straws (margin of error is a thing, esp. as far as vote share is concerned).
2. Undecideds have consistently leaned Republican in this state.
3. Polling has consistently underestimated Republican strength in this state.
4. Your predictions have consistently overestimated Democrats virtually everywhere (that’s because you desperately want Democrats to win and aren’t willing to approach things in a more objective manner).
5. I never used "absolute certainty" in my post ("Miller will likely win" and "strongly suspect" do not convey absolute certainty), so that is a lie.
You’re not interested in arguing in good faith. Consider this my last reply to you.
