IA-AG (Selzer): Miller +2
MT Treasurer:
47% Tom Miller (D-inc.)
45% Brenna Bird (R)
In their October poll, Miller led by 16 points (49-33).*
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/06/iowa-poll-attorney-general-race-tom-miller-lead-brenna-bird/69616569007/
*Note: I do not believe that there has been a 14-point shift in favor of the GOP in a single month here, and neither should you.
S019:
Reposting this in the relevant thread:
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on November 05, 2022, 07:33:05 PM
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/06/iowa-poll-attorney-general-race-tom-miller-lead-brenna-bird/69616569007/
AG Tom Miller (D) leads Republican challenger Brenna Bird 47-45. Miller has served as AG since 1995 and previously served as AG from 1979-1991. His closest race was winning by 8 in 1994, he's only lost once in 1974 (when he lost by 5). The fact that this is close says a lot about how far Iowa has drifted to the right.
Anyways, I'll say that any Republican being at 33% in Iowa is totally ridiculous, and it was obvious that most of the undecideds were just Republicans who didn't want to admit it.
President Punxsutawney Phil:
Miller should still win, but a defeat is not hard to imagine, but even if he wins, this will be the closest win of his career.
MT Treasurer:
Miller will likely lose, by the way. Same poll has Grassley ahead by a very underwhelming 53-41, and it’s not hard to figure out how the "undecideds" are leaning here.
Strongly suspect this is another Hubbell 2018 situation (where they had the losing Democrat "ahead" 46-44 in their final poll).
President Punxsutawney Phil:
Quote from: The End of the Titanium Tilt D Tyranny on November 05, 2022, 08:15:36 PM
Miller will likely lose, by the way. Same poll has Grassley ahead by a very underwhelming 53-41, and it’s not hard to figure out how the "undecideds" are leaning here.
Strongly suspect this is another Hubbell 2018 situation (where they had the losing Democrat "ahead" 46-44 in their final poll).
A 47-45 lead is a bit different from 46-44...that's a smaller number of undecideds. And it's frankly really lazy to just assign all or most of the undecideds to the Rs. Your criticism recently makes a considerable amount of sense but, the way you interpret it, leads towards some rather difficult-to-agree-with conclusions and/or result in something that goes too far down the other direction...
Reality is that absolute certainty is a mirage and ironically, you nurse it almost as much as the people you (rightfully) criticize.
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