KS Gov Emerson: Kelly +3
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  KS Gov Emerson: Kelly +3
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Author Topic: KS Gov Emerson: Kelly +3  (Read 1529 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: November 02, 2022, 06:04:57 AM »



With leaners: Kelly's lead grows to 49-44
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2022, 06:16:01 AM »

Great news
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2022, 06:32:06 AM »

Poll has no actual undecided respondents (a corner of the electorate who are likely Schmidt voters at this juncture) which could be crucial to this race if they exist in large enough numbers.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2022, 06:52:16 AM »

Poll has no actual undecided respondents (a corner of the electorate who are likely Schmidt voters at this juncture) which could be crucial to this race if they exist in large enough numbers.
Doesnt the graphic have 5% undecideds which are then pushed to choose someone aka leaners?
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Spectator
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2022, 06:54:29 AM »

Chris Mann (D) leads Kobach in the AG race. Great poll for Kelly and Mann, the Senate and Biden approvals look realistic.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2022, 07:45:45 AM »

All the users have Laura Kelly losing including S019 and she is winning I told Ds not Rs stop making R nut maps do they listen no, because of your Fav Ds win your nut map is wrong that's why I moved FL back to Crist he is ahead in a Listener poll

Some Ds think our Predictions are ratings maps no it's not
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2022, 08:05:25 AM »

Poll has no actual undecided respondents (a corner of the electorate who are likely Schmidt voters at this juncture) which could be crucial to this race if they exist in large enough numbers.
Doesnt the graphic have 5% undecideds which are then pushed to choose someone aka leaners?

Yes, but that push here forces respondents to pick a candidate doesn't allow them to express that they are genuinely undecided (that's why I said "actual undecided" respondents). Have been seeing a lot of public pollsters doing this recently, it can be messy in close races.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2022, 09:25:29 AM »

Kelly is the favorite at this point.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2022, 09:46:36 AM »

It’s Kelly +5 when learners are pushed.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2022, 09:51:53 AM »

Hot take: Kelly is more likely to win than either of Evers or Sisolak.

Tossup/Tilt D.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2022, 10:13:51 AM »

This looks about right. Pyle could play spoiler - if he actually gets 5% I think it is highly unlikely that Schmidt wins. Will he get 5% though? I have doubts.  
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2022, 11:18:04 AM »

Hot take: Kelly is more likely to win than either of Evers or Sisolak.

Tossup/Tilt D.

It was a warm take at best even a year ago when I first said that. Kelly losing has always been the hot take.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2022, 11:21:41 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2022, 12:01:05 PM by Dani Rose »

That's terrific, given Emerson's usual leaning. I doubt it'll play out that way, but I will laugh mightily if this is the year we finally start to crack the Plains while underperforming everywhere else. Tongue
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2022, 05:17:34 PM »

Remember yall, you don't get to pick and choose which Emerson polls you want to believe. Either they all go in the trash or you throw them in the average
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2022, 08:52:55 PM »

Hot take: Kelly is more likely to win than either of Evers or Sisolak.

Tossup/Tilt D.

It's not that hot of a take.  I sustained very minimal burning.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2022, 08:56:23 PM »

But I thought everything was just about muh partisanship.
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Horus
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2022, 08:59:35 PM »

But I thought everything was just about muh partisanship.

Regardless of who wins the tossups, I'm really hoping to see some partisan depolarization this year. It's healthy for society.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2022, 09:01:22 PM »

But I thought everything was just about muh partisanship.

Regardless of who wins the tossups, I'm really hoping to see some partisan depolarization this year. It's healthy for society.

Yes please. 
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2022, 09:14:26 PM »

But I thought everything was just about muh partisanship.

Regardless of who wins the tossups, I'm really hoping to see some partisan depolarization this year. It's healthy for society.

Hell I'd almost take a Zeldin/Hofmeister victory! Would be a blast from the past for sure.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2022, 09:34:12 PM »

I’ll admit that this is a pretty good poll for Kelly given that Emerson has been one of the most consistent pollsters this year that has actually shown results which are far more in line with state/national fundamentals than other polling organizations (Stitt +9, Laxalt +5, Johnson +5, etc.).
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2022, 09:44:04 PM »

She’s probably going to make it.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2022, 09:54:09 PM »

Whine all you want folks BLUE KANSAS is inevitable.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2022, 03:13:29 PM »

But I thought everything was just about muh partisanship.

Regardless of who wins the tossups, I'm really hoping to see some partisan depolarization this year. It's healthy for society.

Hell I'd almost take a Zeldin/Hofmeister victory! Would be a blast from the past for sure.

It would be nice to see. Not even because of the candidates themselves - more because it would set a national narrative of depolarization.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2022, 03:17:10 PM »

Tilt D, maybe even Lean.
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Person Man
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2022, 03:29:14 PM »

We shouldn’t confuse depolarization with changing regional priorities.
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