2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

PR vote polling average curve



PR vote average (change from 2 weeks ago)

LDP     29.4 (+1.1)
KP        5.4 (+0.3)
DIY       2.0 (+0.5)
PNHK    0.1 (-0.1)
JRP      12.7 (-0.3)
DPP       3.4 (-0.5)
CDP    12.5 (+2.0)
RS        3.8 (-0.1)
SDP      1.2 (+0.7)
JCP       3.6 (-1.3)

LDP-KP and CDP gain at the expense of JRP DPP and JCP.  Sort of shows that Kishida's numbers falling is more about Kishda and not LDP although if LDP keeps Kishida at the top of LDP that will hurt LDP.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll on when Kishida should leave office

I want him to stay on as PM indefinitely                            14%
He should step down after the 2024 Sept LDP Prez race     55%
He should resign ASAP                                                    26%


It seems Kishida needs to start pulling rabbits out of a hat (or a foreign policy crisis with DPRK or PRC) or else he will have trouble at the 2024 Sept LDP Prez race.

[CascadianIndy]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fd28c51e5f1119cfb5056be23aea76cd4afe7394

Seiji Maehara has left the DPFP to start his own organization, the, uh, “The Party to Realize Free Education”. The story going around is that Tamaki, who beat Maehara in the DPFP leadership contest earlier this year, wanted to go into coalition with the LDP, while Maehara was against the idea and bolted, bringing a few new Diet members with him.

Looks like the parliamentary grouping was created because some of the Diet members he brought with him were elected on the party vote (PR Bloc), and thus can't defect to Ishin without triggering a resignation of some sort. Nonetheless, Maehara formally aligning himself with Ishin gives the party much-needed credibility on foreign policy after successive debacles from their last point person, Muneo Suzuki.

Also of note is Maehara's hometown being Kyoto - the very same city holding a mayoral election soon, which Ishin hopes to snag. Slow coalescence of some more opposition forces into a unified Third Pole.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fd28c51e5f1119cfb5056be23aea76cd4afe7394

Seiji Maehara has left the DPFP to start his own organization, the, uh, “The Party to Realize Free Education”. The story going around is that Tamaki, who beat Maehara in the DPFP leadership contest earlier this year, wanted to go into coalition with the LDP, while Maehara was against the idea and bolted, bringing a few new Diet members with him.

Looks like the parliamentary grouping was created because some of the Diet members he brought with him were elected on the party vote (PR Bloc), and thus can't defect to Ishin without triggering a resignation of some sort. Nonetheless, Maehara formally aligning himself with Ishin gives the party much-needed credibility on foreign policy after successive debacles from their last point person, Muneo Suzuki.

Also of note is Maehara's hometown being Kyoto - the very same city holding a mayoral election soon, which Ishin hopes to snag. Slow coalescence of some more opposition forces into a unified Third Pole.

The name of the new party makes it sound like a fringe party and not a serious party.  It is not clear why 前原 誠司(Maehara Seiji) did not retain the word "Democratic" in the name of his party.  Anyway, this sounds like a Kyodo faction split from the Kagawa faction.   The problem I have with 玉木 雄一郎, (Tamaki Yūichirō) approach is that I see no sign that the LDP will give a couple of seats to the DPP in the next election.  So in the end both DPP splinters will have to de facto work with CDP to get opposition unity in the district where DPP is running.  I guess on the PR slate the 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) led DPP could get some extra LDP votes by pushing his line on working with LDP-KP.  But he will lose anti-LDP votes so in the end it is most likely a wash.

[Logical]

Funny name, but he and his guys are going to join Ishin one way or another by the next election. Most importantly though, it looks like this may be the end for the right wing of the old DPJ as an independent force.

[Octosteel]

Seems like nobody in the LDP really wants to challenge Kishida though. Interesting situation where they may just want him to take the fall or are willing to wait until 2025 on the chance he fixes things?

[Lach]

Well this isn't a good look for the LDP at all

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1731155103757832495?s=20

Prosecutor's office will be looking into it, members may need to testify, and the potential that Toshihiro's faction is also involved

[jaichind]

Well this isn't a good look for the LDP at all

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1731155103757832495?s=20

Prosecutor's office will be looking into it, members may need to testify, and the potential that Toshihiro's faction is also involved

This scandal has been brewing for a while.  It was only the power of Abe himself that kept the investigation moving along much slower than usual.  With Abe gone this scandal was going to break eventually.