2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval curve slowly declines to very close to the 30% danger zone

When's the next leadership election/review for the LDP? I know in terms of contenders there's Toshimitsu Motegi, Sanae Takaichi, Kono Taro, and maybe even a Suga comeback bid that's percolated in the backrooms. What would be a bad enough result in the locals for Kishida to be forced out?

The next LDP Prez election is in 2024 so Kishida is safe for now from that front.  The rule of thumb is that if a cabinet approval falls below 30% then a major cabinet reshuffle would be necessary perhaps with the PM being forced out.  If the cabinet approval falls below 20% then the PM has to go.  The reason why the 30% threshold is important is that historically once a cabinet approval falls below 30% and stays for a couple of months they usually never rise above 30% unless the PM is forced out.  So now Kishida is entering into a battle of survival over the next 2-3 months where he has to find a way to push his cabinet approval above 30% and stay there.

As for who is next after Kishida in case he goes I have to assume it is Kono Taro.   The former Abe faction is still too disorganized to be able to mount some sort of effort to capture power itself.

[jaichind]

A couple of political analyst assessments for a snap election have LDP falling to 191 or 207 seats which would mean LDP-KP comes close to or loses their majority.  Both projections have CDP and JRP at neck-to-neck on the PR vote.

Also, curious to see what this means - is it simply the analysts wish casting that the CDP will continue to reap the benefits of the tattered remains of the joint struggle? Or is Ishin simply too localized to Kinki and struggling to break out - I've heard they're having troubles in the Osaka mayoral right now.

In 2021 JRP won 16 FPTP seats.  15 in 大阪(Osaka) where it won all seats contested and leaving the other 4 to KP and 1 in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  In 4 other 兵庫(Hyōgo) seats, the JRP won more than 32% of the vote and many expect them to win those 4 as well next election.  The two projections have JRP with 20 and 21 FTPT seats which means they are just going with CW.

As for seats outside of 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) the view is that in places where JRP might be strong and is the main challenger to LDP (mostly some rural conservative seats) the LDP is even stronger so JRP will displace CDP there but will not win any seats.  Beyond that JRP might be strong in some urban seats but they are usually 3rd behind LDP and CDP.

As for the upcoming Osaka mayoral election, it is expected that JRP might see a bigger challenge as it is an open seat as Ossak mayor and JRP leader 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) is retiring.  In these races, it is a de facto LDP-CDP-JCP alliance against JRP usually with the JRP crushing the grand alliance.  This time around JRP will run an assembly MLA but it seems that is based on a fairly low primary turnout.   It is still not clear what the anti-JRP grand alliance will come up with but I agree this time around it JRP will have a tougher fighter due to the retirement of 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō).

[jaichind]

Kishida is now getting pushback from LDP PRC doves on his plans to increase defense spending.  Former LDP leader 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) and father of likely future LDP PM Kōno Tarō as well as former LDP  PM 福田 康夫(Fukuda Yasuo) came out to attack Kishida's plans as harmful to Japan-PRC relations.  Of course, Kishida's plans to increase taxes to fund such a defense spending expansion is very unpopular which gives these PRC doves an opening.  Both former LDP leaders attacked Kishida for following the "Abe line" on foreign policy.  It is quite telling that both PRC doves cited Abe's name directly for the attack which speaks to the decline of the power of the former Abe faction as well as how much Abe's reputation has been tarnished by this entire Unification Church fiasco.  

Of course, this is not good news for  Kōno Tarō who still needs the LDP PRC hawk mainstream to become PM, and his father coming out reminding everyone how he is a PRC dove just created more problems for his son.

[jaichind]

More signs of inflation coming to Japan.  McDonald's Japan will raise the prices of a hamburger from 150 to 170.  Note that from 2000 it was 100 and in 2019 it was 110.  Now between early 2022 to early 2023, it went from 110->130->150->170.

If this is indicative of what the middle and lower middle class is experiencing while wages are the same in the last 20 years I can see some potentially angry voters in the upcoming local elections

[jaichind]

Mainichi Shimbun SSRC poll

What should be the tenure of LDP PM Kishida
Resign ASAP                                             34
Resign after May G7 Summit                      12
Resign at next year's LDP leadership race    22
Last as long as possible                             11

What should happen given the recent Kishida cabinet resignations
Cabinet reshuffle                                      29
Stay with current cabinet                          21
Fresh elections                                         25
PM Kishida should resign                           20

Kishida cabinet is much more popular than Kishida himself which is actually pretty common.

[Ragnaroni]

More signs of inflation coming to Japan.  McDonald's Japan will raise the prices of a hamburger from 150 to 170.  Note that from 2000 it was 100 and in 2019 it was 110.  Now between early 2022 to early 2023, it went from 110->130->150->170.

If this is indicative of what the middle and lower middle class is experiencing while wages are the same in the last 20 years I can see some potentially angry voters in the upcoming local elections

The famous Big Mac Index!

[jaichind]

Positions of each party on key 2022 legislations.

Note that JCP and RS oppose almost all laws proposed by the LDP-KP government.   CDP and JRP agree on a surprising number of issues.  DPP is yes on all laws and is now acting more likely it is part of the ruling coalition than the opposition even though during elections it still poses itself as an opposition force.

[Cassius]

More signs of inflation coming to Japan.  McDonald's Japan will raise the prices of a hamburger from 150 to 170.  Note that from 2000 it was 100 and in 2019 it was 110.  Now between early 2022 to early 2023, it went from 110->130->150->170.

If this is indicative of what the middle and lower middle class is experiencing while wages are the same in the last 20 years I can see some potentially angry voters in the upcoming local elections

Apparently the Japanese TUC are seeking are 5% across the board increase in wages for this year, whilst a lot of Japanese companies are planning to jack up wages to varying extents (Uniqlo, the clothing retailer, making a particularly stand out commitment of 40%, although I imagine that will be an outlier). Stagflation finally hits Japan?

[jaichind]

岐阜(Gifu) 5th is also interesting but most likely not competitive in the end.  

The reason it is interesting is the CDP is running a 25-year-old woman 今井るる(Imai Ruru)
as its candidate.  It seems that out of college she has no real political experience other than being a community activist.  


In 2017 this district was

LDP    54.1
HP     34.0  (DPJ background)
JCP    11.9

It is fairly rural so it is really not a good fit for someone without deep roots in the district.  Worst both the JCP and JRP are also in the race.  In theory, the PR vote in this district is fairly positive for CDP so she does have some basis to build her vote.  Recently some poll has her closing in on the LDP incumbent but most likely he will win by a good margin.

Still, it is interesting to see the CDP try out a candidate that young.  Most likely they are playing the long game.  Given the lean of the district if she can perhaps win on the PR slate she can slowly build roots in the district and finally dethrone the LDP a couple of election cycles from now.  She has the time.

As I mentioned before the 25-year-old 2021 CDP candidate for 岐阜(Gifu) 5th 今井るる(Imai Ruru) defected to LDP to run in the 岐阜(Gifu) prefecture assembly. But it seems the way things work is "different parties require different hairstyles"

This is 今井るる(Imai Ruru)'s new look in her press conference on being a candidate.


This makes sense since she does need the LDP vote to get elected and to get the LDP vote she has to have to good supportive and conformist daughter-in-law look.   The way she looked in 2021 did not project that image.  So new party new image.

[jaichind]

A slight uptick on the Kishida cabinet approval curve.  I am still somewhat negative about his chances of staying in office after the G7 Summit.  The core issue remains that a majority of LDP MPs are opposed to his plans to raise taxes to pay for his defense spending expansion plans and soon he will be caught between a rock and a hard place between his LDP base and the Biden administration.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/445c8afdb020c6e5babaf2e03d0408e4318d6085

It seems Abe's half bother 岸信夫(Kishi Nobuo) will resign as MP due to health reasons. This will lead to a likely double by-election for 山口(Yamaguchi) 2nd (Abe's old district) and 山口(Yamaguchi) 4th later in the Spring.  It is very likely Kishi's son will run for his father's seat to continue to Abe-Kishi political dynasty.  

The next general election 山口(Yamaguchi) will go from 4 to 3 districts.  The Foreign Minister 林芳正(Hayashi Yoshimasa) is the number 2 in the Kishida faction and is a fierce rival of the Abe clan in 山口(Yamaguchi) so there will be a fierce battle in the next general election on who gets the LDP nomination in the 3 districts of 山口(Yamaguchi).

[jaichind]

Unified local elections will be on April 9th and April 23rd.  All the governor elections (prefectures in red) will be on April 9th as well as all prefecture assembly elections.  April 23rd is mostly for offices at a lower level.

[jaichind]

The cost is building up for the BOJ to keep JGB borrowing rates at 0.5%.  Soon the Japanese population will have to pay a tax to finance this massive public debt built up.  It will either be an indirect tax in the form of inflation or it will be a direct tax on income and wealth.  The MMT magical world where everything is free Abe-Kuroda built is now close to coming to an end.  This end makes it especially funny that Kishida is trying to push for a tax increase to fund a defense spending surge. 



What Kishida has to hope for is a worldwide recession that cuts input costs and allows him to continue to play this MMT game and be able to blame any economic hardship on the rest of the world and not himself.

[Logical]

Abe's brother Kishi Nobuo is resigning in February for health reasons so there will be two by-elections in Yamaguchi. His son will almost certainly run and win his seat.

[jaichind]

Candidate list for 京都(Kyoto) prefecture elections so far.  It is the JRP that is much more aggressive than in 2019 and can be expected to make vote share gains against LDP and most likely take some seats from Center-Left opposition (CDP DPP etc) as well as JRP.  LDP might lose some vote share in a safe seat to JRP but seats-wise should be fairly stable.   JCP is the main opposition to LDP-KP here and that position could erode.

[jaichind]

A very rare incident in Japan took place in Osaka where a driver was fatally shot by the police for refusing to pull over and intentionally ramming patrol cars



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Anx2TYDaT0&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E3%83%86%E3%83%ACNEWS

Reading the comments on the video it seems the vast majority of the comments are very supportive of the police and no absurd comments about police brutality or the police should have done this or that to avoid fatally shooting the person in question.   Good for them.

[jaichind]

NNN poll on the support of DPP joining the LDP-KP government
Support/Oppose 31/45

[jaichind]

山梨(Yamanashi) governor election next Sunday.  Normally it should be a landslide victory for the pro-LDP incumbent.  But this time a LDP rebel is running along with a pro-JCP candidate (which has the support of RS and SDP) which could make it close.  The pro-LDP incumbent will win but it will be interesting to see how the vote share split up.

The pro-LDP incumbent was himself a LDP rebel that ran for LDP in 2005 as a pro-Koizumi candidate to take on an existing LDP postal rebel incumbent.  By 2009 he had fallen out of the LDP and ran as a LDP rebel in 2009 2012 and 2014 winning in the latter 2.  In 2017 he reconciled with the LDP and agreed to run against the LDP candidate with both running as independents with the winner being retroactively nominated by the LDP.   He lost but by working with the LDP in 2017 he was nominated as the pro-LDP candidate for governor in 2019 and won.  He now faces his own LDP rebel in 2023.

[jaichind]

As I mentioned before the 25-year-old 2021 CDP candidate for 岐阜(Gifu) 5th 今井るる(Imai Ruru) defected to LDP to run in the 岐阜(Gifu) prefecture assembly. But it seems the way things work is "different parties require different hairstyles"

This is 今井るる(Imai Ruru)'s new look in her press conference on being a candidate.


This makes sense since she does need the LDP vote to get elected and to get the LDP vote she has to have to good supportive and conformist daughter-in-law look.   The way she looked in 2021 did not project that image.  So new party new image.

News and discussion about 今井るる(Imai Ruru) seem to be flooding the Japanese political internet.  I guess that is good for Kishida since then the whole Unification Church issue might recede into the background.

In the meantime more juicy rumors on this high-profile defection

週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) says that behind the scenes 今井るる(Imai Ruru) has been in talks with a powerful LDP MP to marry this eldest son and become his political heir.  I guess the logic is that the son of this unnamed powerful LDP MP does not want to get involved in politics but the LDP MP's organization does need a political heir so the idea is to do a political marriage where 今井るる(Imai Ruru) comes over to marry the LDP MP's son and then races off to the top of the political world on top of the said LDP MP's political machine over the next couple of decades.  Of course, all this does require 今井るる(Imai Ruru) to change parties.



Also, political ads for 今井るる(Imai Ruru)  continue her rapid shift toward a more conservative image and away from her old non-conformist image

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I mentioned before the 25-year-old 2021 CDP candidate for 岐阜(Gifu) 5th 今井るる(Imai Ruru) defected to LDP to run in the 岐阜(Gifu) prefecture assembly. But it seems the way things work is "different parties require different hairstyles"

This is 今井るる(Imai Ruru)'s new look in her press conference on being a candidate.


This makes sense since she does need the LDP vote to get elected and to get the LDP vote she has to have to good supportive and conformist daughter-in-law look.   The way she looked in 2021 did not project that image.  So new party new image.

News and discussion about 今井るる(Imai Ruru) seem to be flooding the Japanese political internet.  I guess that is good for Kishida since then the whole Unification Church issue might recede into the background.

In the meantime more juicy rumors on this high-profile defection

週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) says that behind the scenes 今井るる(Imai Ruru) has been in talks with a powerful LDP MP to marry this eldest son and become his political heir.  I guess the logic is that the son of this unnamed powerful LDP MP does not want to get involved in politics but the LDP MP's organization does need a political heir so the idea is to do a political marriage where 今井るる(Imai Ruru) comes over to marry the LDP MP's son and then races off to the top of the political world on top of the said LDP MP's political machine over the next couple of decades.  Of course, all this does require 今井るる(Imai Ruru) to change parties.



Also, political ads for 今井るる(Imai Ruru)  continue her rapid shift toward a more conservative image and away from her old non-conformist image

I google her name and I see that her personal website is, uh...
"今井るる公式サイト サイトはただいま改修中です。ご理解の程、よろしくお願いいたします。"
"Ruru Imai's official site The site is currently under renovation. Thank you for your understanding."
Guess the website is changing rapidly too. Makes sense.

[jaichind]

The reason for the intensity of discussion on the Japanese political internet on the  今井るる(Imai Ruru) defection seems to be

a) The obvious visual change in  今井るる(Imai Ruru)'s hairstyle and image
b) CDP had actively promoted 今井るる(Imai Ruru) as an icon of CDP's appeal toward youth voters as well as breaking age hierarchies in political promotion
c)  今井るる(Imai Ruru) herself had played her part in appearing at various CDP meetings and events where she pounded the LDP and the LDP machine.  And now she is joining that same machine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASR1F6V6JR1COIPE01J.html
Came across this Asahi article.
They have a fair number of good pictures here. 14 in total. Btw, that's 14 more than the total of single-member districts in Gifu the LDP has lost over the past four elections.

[Logical]

I think the media and public is just bored after non stop Unification Church and tax hike news so they latch into this show biz style story. She's not even an elected politician yet.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/japan-s-inflation-hits-4-for-the-first-time-since-1981?srnd=all

"Japan Inflation Hits 4% to Keep BOJ Pivot Speculation Smoldering"

Highest inflation since 1981.  This crazy Kuroda QE has to stop.  Of course, the fiscal pressure on Japan will become very difficult once debt financing rates become positive again but to continue this will just make it that much worse when the MMT magical free money world comes to an end.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/TEPCO-set-to-apply-for-raising-households-power-prices-about-30

"TEPCO set to apply for raising households' power prices about 30%"

The good news for LDP is that this likely 30% surge in household power bills is more likely to take place in the Summer which is after the spring local elections.  But when this does take place it will hit the lower middle class and working class hard.