2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll

LDP    27.2 (-0.4)
KP       5.4 (+1.3)
DIY      1.9 (+0.4)
PNHK   0.6 (+0.2)
JRP    12.3 (-0.3)
DPP     2.3 (--)
CDP   18.1 (-1.5)
RS       2.2 (--)
SDP     0.9 (-0.3)
JCP      9.1 (+1.1) 



A lot of reversion to the mean.  JCP gains from CDP.  DIY makes some gains and now are almost the same as RS and DPP.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval steady but near record lows


LDP support holding steady.  CDP clearly opening up a gap with JRP not seen since the 2021 Lower House elections.

[Logical]

The LDP member for Chiba 5th district has resigned after a scandal involving misreported political donations. In the last election the results were
LDP 46.97%
CDP 29.31%
JRP 13.52%
DPP 10.19%

If the opposition can get their act together they will stand a chance.
The by-election may be held concurrently with the local elections if the lawsuits involving the 2021 election are resolved before March of 2023.

Fun fact, Tokyo Disney Resort is built upon reclaimed land in this district.

[jaichind]

It seems DPP will nominate a candidate for the 千葉(Chiba) 5th by-election.  Not a good sign for opposition unity as it is unlikely the CDP or JRP will just DPP have a free ride here.  千葉(Chiba) 5th is fairly urban so it is critical for CDP and JRP to fight it out to show that they are the main alternative to LDP.

[jaichind]

This Sunday will be the election for governor for 宮崎(Miyazaki)

The race is somewhat competitive because the former incumbent is challenging the pro-LDP consensus incumbent.  The former incumbent 東国原 英夫(Higashikokubaru Hideo) was an actor before serving as governor for one term before later running for the Lower House for JRP in 2012.   He has since left the JRP.

The third candidate is an entertainer called スーパークレイジー君 or Mister Super Crazy. Going by his name it is clear he will target the 3%-5% anti-system vote.

The incumbent will win but it will be interesting to see how close the former incumbent gets.

Polls has the incumbent with a significant but not massive lead

[jaichind]

Voting for governor for 宮崎(Miyazaki) is over. Exit polls show it is neck-to-neck with the incumbent with a tiny lead over the ex-incumbent.  The third candidate  Mister Super Crazy could actually decide the race even though it seems he is expected to get ~2%

[jaichind]

A different exit poll for the governor election for 宮崎(Miyazaki) has the incumbent having a slight edge with LDP voters with KP and CDP votes split down the middle.  JRP voters lean former incumbent is expected given he was a JRP MP for a while.   JCP also leans former incumbent. Mister Super Crazy gets some of the PNHK votes which are expected.

[jaichind]

Asahi's final pre-election poll has ex-incumbent actually with a tiny lead. It seems there was a last-minute surge toward the ex-incumbent

[jaichind]

宮崎(Miyazaki) governor election (25% in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent        54.8%  (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-SDP as consensus candidate)
former incumbent          43.8%  (de facto backed by JRP)
Mister Super Crazy          1.4%

Nothing from urban areas.  The suburban and rural vote does lean incumbent.

[jaichind]

宮崎(Miyazaki) governor election (40% in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent        54.3%  (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-SDP as consensus candidate)
former incumbent          44.4%  (de facto backed by JRP)
Mister Super Crazy          1.4%

Some more suburb votes came in.  They mostly slightly lean incumbent as well.  Unless the former incumbent can do a massive sweep of the urban areas most likely he will come close but still lose.

[jaichind]

宮崎(Miyazaki) governor election (83% in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent        51.8%  (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-SDP as consensus candidate)
former incumbent          47.1%  (de facto backed by JRP)
Mister Super Crazy          1.1%

Race called for the incumbent who looked like will win by a narrow margin.  NHK exit polls validated.  The low vote share of anti-system Mister Super Crazy as well as the higher turnout shows the polarized nature of this race toward the end.

[jaichind]

宮崎(Miyazaki) governor election (all votes counted)

pro-LDP incumbent        51.5%  (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-SDP as consensus candidate)
former incumbent          46.9%  (de facto backed by JRP)
Mister Super Crazy          1.5%

The closeness of this election shows that as long there is a low risk of someone too left getting into office the LDP base is now willing to stick it to the LDP.

[jaichind]

Famous comedian 長井秀和(Nagai Hidekazu) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidekazu_Nagai) was elected 西東京市(Nishi-Tokyo City) Council yesterday's election with the highest vote.  His father was in KP politics and he was very close to KP until the last few years then had a massive falling out with KP.   He is a pretty famous womanizer.   It seems he drew a bunch of LDP votes which led to the LDP losing two seats in the Council election relative to the last election.

He ran on anti-cult messages which seems to be directed at Unification Church but also indirectly at KP

[jaichind]

For the 西東京市(Nishi-Tokyo City) Council election yesterday where famous comedian 長井秀和(Nagai Hidekazu) was elected on first place note that DIY just missed out on winning a seat to CDP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the 西東京市(Nishi-Tokyo City) Council election yesterday where famous comedian 長井秀和(Nagai Hidekazu) was elected on first place note that DIY just missed out on winning a seat to CDP.

Huh, is this how local elections work? Top 28 candidates get elected?

[jaichind]

Huh, is this how local elections work? Top 28 candidates get elected?

Correct.  All city council elections are single district top 20-40 vote-getters win.  This means that various small and anti-system parties like PNHK and DIY will win a bunch of seats in various city council elections.  This means that the farm league for prefectural and then national politics get started by trying to align with local vested interests that can get them the 5% vote needed to get elected.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/12/5ea6c0f2a8e8-kishida-hints-at-general-election-before-tax-hikes-for-defense.html

"PM Kishida hints at general election before tax hikes for defense"

Under USA pressure Kishida plans to increase Japan's defense spending.  The problem is there are no funds to cover such an increase in expenditure and Kishida does not want to monetize the cost like governments did in the past.  So instead Kishida intends to increase taxes to cover this cost.  This idea seems to be very unpopular, even among LDP hawks.  So Kishida seems to indicate that he will have a snap election before the tax increase comes into effect.  This implies some sort of snap election in 2024.

[Logical]

If the LDP has a bad local election result and Kishida's position is further weakened he may need to call a snap election to reassert his authority and hold back rival LDP factions. So the earliest possible date for an election is summer 2023.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/RinNishimura/status/1608672535591407616

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch.

[jaichind]

A couple of political analyst assessments for a snap election have LDP falling to 191 or 207 seats which would mean LDP-KP comes close to or loses their majority.  Both projections have CDP and JRP at neck-to-neck on the PR vote.

[jaichind]

岐阜(Gifu) 5th is also interesting but most likely not competitive in the end.  

The reason it is interesting is the CDP is running a 25-year-old woman 今井るる(Imai Ruru)
as its candidate.  It seems that out of college she has no real political experience other than being a community activist.  


In 2017 this district was

LDP    54.1
HP     34.0  (DPJ background)
JCP    11.9

It is fairly rural so it is really not a good fit for someone without deep roots in the district.  Worst both the JCP and JRP are also in the race.  In theory, the PR vote in this district is fairly positive for CDP so she does have some basis to build her vote.  Recently some poll has her closing in on the LDP incumbent but most likely he will win by a good margin.

Still, it is interesting to see the CDP try out a candidate that young.  Most likely they are playing the long game.  Given the lean of the district if she can perhaps win on the PR slate she can slowly build roots in the district and finally dethrone the LDP a couple of election cycles from now.  She has the time.

Big coup for LDP in 岐阜(Gifu).  The local LDP got this 2021 CDP Lower House candidate to defect to LDP and run for LDP in the upcoming 岐阜(Gifu) prefecture elections.

In 2021 she overperformed in her seat

LDP  48.5
CDP  40.5 (今井るる(Imai Ruru))
JRP    5.9
JCP    5.2

And if she had stayed in CDP she most likely would have been elected on the PR slate in the next Lower House race and perhaps win the seat outright in the election after that. 

I guess for her she could not wait and wanted office and access to power ASAP.  Joining LDP to run in the 岐阜(Gifu) prefecture elections sounds like a safer although more time-consuming way to get to become a MP.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval curve slowly declines to very close to the 30% danger zone

[jaichind]

JAPOR poll on party support in upcoming unified local elections


LDP      27
KP         3
DIY        2
PNHK     1
JRP        9
DPP       2
CDP       7
RS         2
SDP       1
JCP        3

[CascadianIndy]

Kishida cabinet approval curve slowly declines to very close to the 30% danger zone

When's the next leadership election/review for the LDP? I know in terms of contenders there's Toshimitsu Motegi, Sanae Takaichi, Kono Taro, and maybe even a Suga comeback bid that's percolated in the backrooms. What would be a bad enough result in the locals for Kishida to be forced out?

A couple of political analyst assessments for a snap election have LDP falling to 191 or 207 seats which would mean LDP-KP comes close to or loses their majority.  Both projections have CDP and JRP at neck-to-neck on the PR vote.

Also, curious to see what this means - is it simply the analysts wish casting that the CDP will continue to reap the benefits of the tattered remains of the joint struggle? Or is Ishin simply too localized to Kinki and struggling to break out - I've heard they're having troubles in the Osaka mayoral right now.