2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

2018  茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly results

                          Contest   Win    Vote share
LDP+                     57         45        63.63% (include pro-LDP independents and rebels)
KP                          4           4          7.51%
LDP rebel faction      6           5         5.77%
JRP                         1           0         0.45%
DPP+                    11           5        12.06% (includes pro-DPP independents)
CDP                        2           1         3.16%
JCP                         8           2         7.11%

The LDP rebel faction has since merged back into the LDP "family" which only adds to the LDP domination.

JCP is running only in 4 seats this time.  The 4 places it vacated seem to be

1) A 4-member district that went 1 LDP 2 KP and 2 DPP in 2018 with JCP in 5th.  This time LDP will run a second candidate and it seems JCP vacated this district to give DPP a chance to hold on to both its seats
2) A 2-member district which went 1 LDP 1 pro-LDP independent with JCP in 3rd.  This time JRP will run and it seems JCP vacated this district to give JRP a run at LDP+
3) A 2-member district which went 1 LDP 1 DPP backed independent with JCP in 3rd.  This time an old LDP incumbent will run as the second LDP candidate.  To ensure the DPP-backed independent turn CDP have a shot at holding this seat JCP seems to have vacated.
4) A 4-member district which went 2 LDP 1 LDP rebel faction with a LDP rebel faction candidate coming in 4th and JCP coming in 5th.  With the LDP rebel faction merged back into the LDP the LDP rebel faction candidate that came in 4th is not running this time.  It seems JCP just gave up seeing no hope of winning since the LDP+ vote will be now split 3 ways vs 4 ways last time.

It is interesting that JCP is willing to vacate a seat just to give JRP a shot.  I guess the merge of the LDP rebel faction has freaked everyone else out on the scale of LDP domination in 2022.

[jaichind]

In the 茨城(Ibaraki)  5- member つくば市 (Tsukuba City) district it seems one Jon Heese will run as a pro-DPP independent.   He was born in Saskatchewan in 1963 and moved to Japan in 1991 becoming a citizen in 2006.  He was elected to the つくば市 (Tsukuba City) City council in 2008 and ran in 2014 in the 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly coming in a close 5th place and barely missed knocking out KP for the 4th place seat win as back then it was a 4- member district.



He will run again this time but will face much more difficult headwinds since a pro-CDP minor Left party candidate, as well as a pro-JRP candidate, are in the fray to take on 3 LDP 1 JCP and 1 KP candidates which are expected to win the 5 seats.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval holding steady at low 30s

[jaichind]

Jiji reports, citing unidentified LDP officials, that LDP is considering adding DPP to the LDP-KP coalition.  Kishida claims this is not true but where there is smoke there must be some fire.

[jaichind]

There are media reports that MP from 茨城(Ibaraki) 3rd 葉梨 康弘(Hanashi Yasuhiro) who had to resign as Justice Minister could hurt the LDP in the upcoming prefecture elections.  It seems 葉梨 康弘(Hanashi Yasuhiro)  made some comments that he "just rubber stamps death penalties since he is too busy helping to deal with the Unification Church crisis for LDP."  After a few days of trying to walk back that comment, he was forced to resign.  The local media in 茨城(Ibaraki)  says that there might be further blowback in 茨城(Ibaraki) which could show up in this weekend's prefecture elections.

[jaichind]

 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly voting in progress.  Turnout as of 6 PM is around 21% which is down 5% from 2018.  Not sure what the early vote is which I assume is greater than in 2018 but this is a clear fall in turnout.

[jaichind]

I went candidate by candidate for the 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections and found that out of the 33 independents

13 are backed by LDP
12 are LDP rebels
4 are pro-Center-Left opposition
1 is pro-DIY
1 is pro-JRP
2 are complete nobodies and will most likely get very few votes

[jaichind]

茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly count in progress.  So far it is in mainly rural LDP strongholds where it is mostly LDP vs LDP rebels.  The count is mostly along expected lines.  Nothing from the more urbanized battlegrounds.

[jaichind]

In the 茨城(Ibaraki)  5- member つくば市 (Tsukuba City) district it seems one Jon Heese will run as a pro-DPP independent.   He was born in Saskatchewan in 1963 and moved to Japan in 1991 becoming a citizen in 2006.  He was elected to the つくば市 (Tsukuba City) City council in 2008 and ran in 2014 in the 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly coming in a close 5th place and barely missed knocking out KP for the 4th place seat win as back then it was a 4- member district.



He will run again this time but will face much more difficult headwinds since a pro-CDP minor Left party candidate, as well as a pro-JRP candidate, are in the fray to take on 3 LDP 1 JCP and 1 KP candidates which are expected to win the 5 seats.

He is in 5th place for this 5- member district, ahead of both a LDP and a minor Center-left candidate.  It is early in the count though.

[jaichind]

In deep LDP strongholds, LDP rebels are doing very well and are knocking off LDP candidates at a fairly high rate.   All of them will be, at he minimum, able to join the LDP caucus if not let into LDP.  This trend so far seems to show that the LDP brand is taking a hit even if the ideology of the LDP is not.

[jaichind]

The DIY candidate won 27% in a 1-on-1 battle with a LDP candidate. Another pro-DIY independent won 20% of the vote against 2 LDP candidates in a 2- member district.

[jaichind]

Out of the 12 LDP rebels, 8 already won and a 9th one is likely to win as well.  When given a choice in a LDP stronghold the voters seem to lean LDP rebel over LDP.

[jaichind]

The count is mostly done.  Results are not clear in a couple of districts.  So far it seems the LDP bloc gained a seat, KP flat, the Center-Left bloc gained a seat while JCP lost both its seats.  A disastrous result for JCP.  JRP could not open its account.  Mains story is the LDP rebel surge that beat the official LDP to gain 8 seats.

[jaichind]

Some more votes came in and the results are shifting. JCP managed to win a seat at the expense of pro-LDP independent.  And one last district JRP has pulled ahead of LDP for the second seat of a 2- seat district.  If these trends hold then the LDP bloc will lose one seat relative to 2018.

[Logical]

In the 茨城(Ibaraki)  5- member つくば市 (Tsukuba City) district it seems one Jon Heese will run as a pro-DPP independent.   He was born in Saskatchewan in 1963 and moved to Japan in 1991 becoming a citizen in 2006.  He was elected to the つくば市 (Tsukuba City) City council in 2008 and ran in 2014 in the 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly coming in a close 5th place and barely missed knocking out KP for the 4th place seat win as back then it was a 4- member district.



He will run again this time but will face much more difficult headwinds since a pro-CDP minor Left party candidate, as well as a pro-JRP candidate, are in the fray to take on 3 LDP 1 JCP and 1 KP candidates which are expected to win the 5 seats.

He is in 5th place for this 5- member district, ahead of both a LDP and a minor Center-left candidate.  It is early in the count though.

He won. Managed to finish in 4th place ahead of 2 JCP and LDP incumbents who were unseated.

[jaichind]

Overall the LDP was able to consolidate around a candidate in a 1- member seat they lost to DPP in 2018 and recapture it.  On the other hand, the LDP over-nominated in an urban district and failed to gain a seat when they could have while losing a seat in another urban district due to pro-JRP independents cutting into their vote.  All this adds up to a wash for the LDP bloc.  One last district outstanding they could lose a seat to JRP for a net loss.

[jaichind]

Last 2- member district called for LDP and JRP. LDP loses a seat.  An overall fairly bad election night for LDP with the LDP bloc losing a seat and within the bloc 8 LDP rebels winning against the official LDP candidate.

[jaichind]

DIY shows that it can get its vote share in the 20% range against the LDP if no other opposition candidate is present.

[jaichind]

One a very rural seat the CDP fought the LDP to a 45.6 to 54.4 defeat.  One would expect the LDP to win 70% here in a prefecture-level race.  I think this is part of the same pattern of the LDP losing to LDP rebels in similar seats.  The Unification Church issue is hurting the LDP brand in rural areas.

[jaichind]

All seats called

LDP                35 
pro-LDP Ind.     6 
LDP rebel          8 
KP                    4
JRP                  1 
pro-DPP            1
DPP                 3
CDP                 2
Minor Left         1
JCP                  1

LDP bloc loses 1 seat.  JCP loses a seat.  Center-Left gains 1 seat. JRP gains a seat.

[jaichind]

2022 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections

                  Contest    Won    Vote share
LDP+              70           49       74.17% (LDP, pro-LDP Ind., LDP rebels)
KP                    4            4          4.88%
DIY+                2            0          1.14%
JRP+                3            1           2.25%
OPPN               4             1          2.85%  (pro-Center-Left Independents)
DPP                 3             3          4.92%
CDP                 3             2          4.16%
Minor Left         1            1          1.20%
JCP                   4           1           3.98%

The KP vote share is underestimated as one of the seats KP is contesting was a walkover.
The LDP+ vote share is both overestimated and underestimated.  There are a bunch of seats where there is no challenge to LDP.  On the other hand, there are a bunch of other seats where the Center-Left opposion and JCP has pulled out leaving the battle to be LDP vs LDP rebel.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that JCP is willing to vacate a seat just to give JRP a shot.  I guess the merger of the LDP rebel faction has freaked everyone else out on the scale of LDP domination in 2022.

This led directly to the JRP winning the seat against 2 LDP candidates in this 2- member district.  First time I am seeing a JRP-JCP tactical alliance.

[jaichind]

10 LDP MLAs of the 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly were defeated, most of them by LDP rebels.  To be fair 3 of them were elected in by-elections due to the death of a sitting LDP MLA and 2 sitting MLAs running and becoming mayors in their respective cities.

Beyond that, a JCP MLA was defeated as well as a pro-DPP MLA.  The pro-DPP MLA was defeated due to the consolidation of the LDP to take on him 1-on-1 after he won in 2018 over a splinter of the LDP vote over several LDP and pro-LDP candidates.

[jaichind]

Abe's brother 岸信夫(Kishi Nobuo) will retire from politics at the next general election.  His 31-year-old son will most likely run for his seat.

[jaichind]

山本太郎(Yamamoto Taro) barely crosses the majority mark in his re-election as RS leader in a crowded field.