2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

Japan's population density at a prefecture and sub-prefecture level.
So Japan's population high-density areas are just Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, Greater Nagoya and Greater Fukuoka.

[jaichind]

山梨(Yamanashi) governor election next Sunday.  Normally it should be a landslide victory for the pro-LDP incumbent.  But this time a LDP rebel is running along with a pro-JCP candidate (which has the support of RS and SDP) which could make it close.  The pro-LDP incumbent will win but it will be interesting to see how the vote share split up.

The pro-LDP incumbent was himself a LDP rebel that ran for LDP in 2005 as a pro-Koizumi candidate to take on an existing LDP postal rebel incumbent.  By 2009 he had fallen out of the LDP and ran as a LDP rebel in 2009 2012 and 2014 winning in the latter 2.  In 2017 he reconciled with the LDP and agreed to run against the LDP candidate with both running as independents with the winner being retroactively nominated by the LDP.   He lost but by working with the LDP in 2017 he was nominated as the pro-LDP candidate for governor in 2019 and won.  He now faces his own LDP rebel in 2023.

Pro-LDP incumbent wins re-election by a large margin.  NHK exit polls have it at

Pro-LDP incumbent       62
LDP rebel                     30
JCP-RS-SDP                   8

It seems the Center-Left opposition vote split between the pro-LDP incumbent and the LDP rebel leaving the pro-JCP candidate with the core JCP vote.

[jaichind]

山梨(Yamanashi) governor (all votes counted)

Pro-LDP incumbant      61.3
LDP rebel                    30.4
JCP-RS-RSP                  8.3

Matches exit polls exactly.  Once again when the election becomes LDP vs LDP rebel and there is not a viable opposition candidate, the opposition vote flows to the LDP and LDP rebel candidates respectively.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Japan's population density at a prefecture and sub-prefecture level.
So Japan's population high-density areas are just Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, Greater Nagoya and Greater Fukuoka.

What are the subdivisions they are using outside Hokkaido here?

[jaichind]

What are the subdivisions they are using outside Hokkaido here?

I have no idea.  Those sub-prefecture borders are those that I have not seen before.

[jaichind]

Candidate list so far for the 神奈川(Kanagawa) prefecture assembly elections.  JRP is making a big push here just like in 2015.  They underperformed in 2015 and most disappeared here by 2019 when most of the 2015 JRP winners went over to the Center-Left opposition camp after the JRP split in the Fall of 2015.  Now they are back in full force.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the subdivisions they are using outside Hokkaido here?

I have no idea.  Those sub-prefecture borders are those that I have not seen before.

https://i.ibb.co/844rXCk/image.png

This is my best guess as to these areas look like on a municipal map.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/01/17/national/politics-diplomacy/suga-kishida-criticism/

"With Kishida criticism, Suga steps back onto Japan's political stage"

More and more former PM Suga is getting more and more openly critical of Kishida.  I think he is betting on Kishida being gone after the G-7 Summit and paving the way to help Kono become PM.

[xelas81]

Is Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai(Abe Faction) not going elect next leader of the faction?

[CascadianIndy]

Is Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai(Abe Faction) not going elect next leader of the faction?

They're basically paralyzed and have a power vacuum right now. Takaichi has the most support from online circles but she isn't even technically in the fsction. Hagiuda and other prominent Seiwakai members still can't break the logjam.

[jaichind]

奈良(Nara) prefecture assembly candidate list so far. JRP going all out to contest everywhere and is the main rival to LDP in rural seats.

[jaichind]

三重(Mie) prefecture assembly election list so far.

LDP-KP vs Opposition grand alliance across the board.  JRP not making a big push here.

First the pattern of JPR making a push in the urban prefectures and Southern rural prefectures.  JRP will most likely not mak a push in rural Central and Northern prefectures.

[jaichind]

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2023012600552&g=pol

Jiji reports that Kishida's son made use of an official Japanese embassy car for sightseeing/shopping in London and Paris.  This is a big no-no.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/japan-pm-kishida-faces-calls-for-election-over-defense-tax-hike

"Japan PM Kishida Faces Calls for Election Over Defense Tax Hike"

About 63% of respondents to a poll by the Nikkei newspaper carried out Jan 27-29 and 77% of those who took part in a survey by Kyodo News Jan 28-29 said Kishida should go to the people ahead of any increase in the tax burden.

[Dr. Cynic]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/japan-pm-kishida-faces-calls-for-election-over-defense-tax-hike

"Japan PM Kishida Faces Calls for Election Over Defense Tax Hike"

About 63% of respondents to a poll by the Nikkei newspaper carried out Jan 27-29 and 77% of those who took part in a survey by Kyodo News Jan 28-29 said Kishida should go to the people ahead of any increase in the tax burden.

What are the chances of an actual election? I would assume pretty low, right? The LDP would be more likely to just remove Kishida, wouldn't they?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/japan-pm-kishida-faces-calls-for-election-over-defense-tax-hike

"Japan PM Kishida Faces Calls for Election Over Defense Tax Hike"

About 63% of respondents to a poll by the Nikkei newspaper carried out Jan 27-29 and 77% of those who took part in a survey by Kyodo News Jan 28-29 said Kishida should go to the people ahead of any increase in the tax burden.

What are the chances of an actual election? I would assume pretty low, right? The LDP would be more likely to just remove Kishida, wouldn't they?

Correct.  Everything will come to a head after the G-7 Summit is over.  Kishida will threaten a mid-term election to get LDP MPs to come over to his position of raising taxes to fund defense spending plans.  If the LDP MPs do not fold then Kishida will have to go.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve is still steady in the low 30s.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll - question on which opposition party can be an effective opposition to take on LDP.  Respondents can choose multiple parties.

JRP beats CDP 44 to 29.  For independents (mostly anti-LDP and should be lean CDP) JRP beat CDP 32 to 23 (this is the real warning signal to CDP)

[jaichind]

The trend looks bad for BOJ to try to hold down JGB yields.  At some point soon the dam will have to break.

[jaichind]

愛知(Aichi) governor election today.  The all-non-JCP consensus incumbent wins with a bit over 70% of the vote according to exit polls.  The incumbent was a LDP MP back in the 2000s but these days are somewhere between LDP and JRP.



A pro-Green party candidate wins around 10% as the second-place finisher.

[jaichind]

In the election for the open seat of mayor of 北九州市(Kitakyushu) which is the second largest city in Far Western Japan is throwing up an upset where the all-non-JCP consensus candidate is likely beaten by a LDP rebel

Exit polls seem to have it at something like

LDP rebel               46
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP    38
pro-LDP                   8
JCP                         8


 

[jaichind]

 北九州市(Kitakyushu) mayor election results

LDP rebel             42.9
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP  38.1
JCP                       9.6
pro-LDP                9.4

The exit poll by age shows that the LDP rebel has a very JRP look to his support profile of strength with middle-aged voters.

[jaichind]

In terms of party support CDP has reversed the 2022 Upper House trend and has taken a lead over JRP. 

[jaichind]

Former governor of 北海道(Hokkaido) and DPJ Speaker of the Lower House (2009-2012) 横路孝弘(Takahiro Yokomichi) passes away

[jaichind]

In the upcoming election for 大阪(Osaka) governor it will be the JRP incumbent vs JCP vs a feminist activist 谷口真由美 (Taniguchi Mayumi). 

The local LDP hates the JRP so much most likely they will support the feminist activist 谷口真由美 (Taniguchi Mayumi).   Of course, that will just drive the JRP-LDP marginal voter toward the JRP incumbent and add to his landslide.