2023 Japan Unified local elections
jaichind:
Spring of 2023 will be the Japan Unified local elections.
All prefecture assemblies will be up for election around April 2023 with the following exceptions:
茨城(Ibaraki) - Dec 2022
岩手(Iwate) - Sep 2023
宮城(Miyagi) - Oct 2023
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 2023
沖縄(Okinawa) - June 2024
東京(Tokyo) - July 2025
So first up would be 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections in Dec 2022. It is expected to be a massive LDP landslide. Historically LDP has been ultra-strong in 茨城(Ibaraki) at the local level. The real opposition to LDP is a breakaway LDP faction led by long-time LDP rebel 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) with some Center-Left and JCP presence in urban districts. For the 2021 Lower House elections 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) join CDP which pretty much led to the dissolution of his breakaway faction with most of its members going back to LDP. The reunified LDP will now sweep all rural seats and the election is about how many urban seats the CDP DPP and JCP can claw out of the urban districts. JRP will be backing DPP but JRP at the local level is non-existent.
jaichind:
2018 Dec 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly elections
Note for LDP CDP DPP I include rebels and independents backed by said parties
Contest Won Vote share
LDP 57 45 63.63%
KP 4 4 7.51%
LDP R 6 5 5.77% 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) LDP splinter faction
JRP 1 0 0.45%
DPP 11 5 12.06%
CDP 2 1 3.16%
JCP 8 2 7.11%
A bunch of districts was not contested by the opposition so the LDP (including LDP rebels and pro-LDP independents) vote share above if anything is an underestimate.
Note DPP is a lot stronger here than CDP. CDP and JCP are only relevant in urban areas. DPP and the 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) LDP splinter faction had some strength in certain rural areas. Of course the 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō) LDP splinter faction has now merged back into LDP creating a new super LDP that should be able to increase its domination.
jaichind:
For prefecture assembly elections it will be status quo with JRP gaining ground in urban areas vis a vias LDP, Center-Left, and JCP but not much changing in rural areas. The most fun one will be 兵庫(Hyōgo) where there is a chance of a JRP surge at the expense of LDP and CDP to take away the LDP-KP majority and potentially overtake LDP as the largest party.
jaichind:
Previous prefecture assembly election seats share by party bloc.
LDP+ = (LDP LDP rebels, pro-LDP independent, LDP regional allies)
KP
LDP++ = LDP+ plus KP
OPPN = Center-Left
TP = Third Pole parties (JRP TPFA ex-YP)
JCP
Pref. LDP+ KP LDP++ OPPN TP JCP
北海道 53.00% 8.00% 61.00% 36.00% 0.00% 3.00% Hokkaido
青森 64.58% 6.25% 70.83% 22.92% 0.00% 6.25% Aomori
岩手 29.17% 2.08% 31.25% 52.08% 10.42% 6.25% Iwate
宮城 56.90% 6.90% 63.79% 24.14% 3.45% 8.62% Miyagi
秋田 62.79% 2.33% 65.12% 32.56% 0.00% 2.33% Akita
山形 65.12% 2.33% 67.44% 27.91% 0.00% 4.65% Yamagata
福島 53.45% 6.90% 60.34% 31.03% 0.00% 8.62% Fukushima
茨城 80.65% 6.45% 87.10% 9.68% 0.00% 3.23% Ibaraki
栃木 72.00% 6.00% 78.00% 18.00% 2.00% 2.00% Tochigi
群馬 70.00% 6.00% 76.00% 20.00% 0.00% 4.00% Gunma
埼玉 53.76% 9.68% 63.44% 30.11% 0.00% 6.45% Saitama
千葉 60.64% 8.51% 69.15% 27.66% 1.06% 2.13% Chiba
神奈川 52.38% 7.62% 60.00% 35.24% 0.00% 4.76% Kanagawa
山梨 75.68% 2.70% 78.38% 18.92% 0.00% 2.70% Yamanashi
東京 25.98% 18.11% 40.09% 13.39% 27.56% 14.96% Tokyo
新潟 63.46% 3.77% 67.31% 30.77% 0.00% 1.92% Niigata
富山 85.00% 2.50% 87.50% 7.50% 0.00% 5.00% Toyama
石川 74.42% 4.65% 79.07% 18.60% 0.00% 2.33% Ishikawa
福井 75.68% 2.70% 78.38% 18.92% 0.00% 2.70% Fukui
長野 50.88% 15.79% 66.67% 22.81% 1.75% 8.77% Nagano
岐阜 73.91% 4.35% 78.26% 19.57% 0.00% 2.17% Gifu
静岡 61.76% 7.35% 69.12% 29.41% 0.00% 1.47% Shizuoka
愛知 57.84% 5.88% 63.73% 34.31% 1.96% 0.00% Aichi
三重 50.98% 3.92% 54.90% 43.14% 0.00% 1.96% Mie
滋賀 47.73% 4.55% 52.27% 38.64% 0.00% 9.09% Shiga
京都 50.00% 8.33% 58.33% 18.33% 3.33% 20.00% Kyoto
大阪 18.18% 17.05% 35.23% 2.27% 60.23% 2.27% Osaka
兵庫 50.00% 15.12% 65.12% 18.60% 10.47% 5.81% Hyōgo
奈良 62.79% 6.98% 69.77% 11.63% 9.30% 9.30% Nara
和歌山 69.05% 7.14% 76.19% 11.90% 2.38% 9.52% Wakayama
鳥取 60.00% 8.57% 68.57% 28.57% 0.00% 2.86% Tottori
島根 72.97% 5.41% 78.38% 16.22% 0.00% 5.41% Shimane
岡山 72.73% 9.09% 81.82% 14.55% 0.00% 3.64% Okayama
広島 65.63% 9.38% 75.00% 21.88% 1.56% 1.56% Hiroshima
山口 68.09% 10.64% 78.72% 17.02% 0.00% 4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島 68.42% 5.26% 73.68% 21.05% 0.00% 5.26% Tokushima
香川 65.85% 4.88% 70.73% 24.39% 0.00% 4.88% Kagawa
愛媛 65.96% 4.26% 70.21% 10.64% 17.02% 2.13% Ehime
高知 59.46% 8.11% 67.57% 18.92% 0.00% 13.51% Kōchi
福岡 60.92% 11.49% 72.41% 25.29% 0.00% 2.30% Fukuoka
佐賀 76.32% 5.26% 81.58% 13.16% 0.00% 5.26% Saga
長崎 69.57% 6.52% 76.09% 21.74% 0.00% 2.17% Nagasaki
熊本 81.63% 6.12% 87.76% 10.20% 0.00% 2.04% Kumamoto
大分 53.49% 6.98% 60.47% 34.88% 0.00% 4.65% Ōita
宮崎 66.67% 7.69% 64.36% 20.51% 0.00% 5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島 76.47% 5.88% 82.35% 11.76% 3.92% 1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄 39.58% 4.17% 43.75% 37.50% 4.17% 14.58% Okinawa
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Total 53.70% 9.39% 63.09% 22.96% 8.48% 5.47% (weight by VAP)
jaichind:
Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve stabilizes at a lower but above disastrous level
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