NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1589412116418932736?t=SY6jjD8EKoIoO1ukfNJF...

[kwabbit]

In September UNH had:

49-41 Hassan
48-45 Kuster
50-43 Pappas

[MT Treasurer]

NH-GOV & NH-01 numbers make me believe this is a fairly rosy poll for Democrats, but it’s obviously an extremely tight race.

Also worth noting that while WMUR/UNH got the presidential race right in 2020, they missed badly in their final 2016 (Clinton +11, Van Ostern +11, Hassan +4) and 2018 (tie between Chris Sununu and Molly Kelly) polls.

[SnowLabrador]

Hassan is going to blow this.

[Person Man]

They’re all at 50.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Confirms it's a 303 not 413 or 225 map like it always was

[Sestak]

Terrible poll for John Fetterman. The northeast collapse is real.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Terrible poll for John Fetterman. The northeast collapse is real.

?!?!

[Eraserhead]

Those New Hampshire whites can definitely swing in a wave. I think she'll survive but looks close.

[2016]

They’re all at 50.

Yes, but a 52-48 Win by Hassan or Pappas doesn't bode very well for the rest of the Country see 2014 when Shaheen narrowly beat Scott Brown 52-48.

The New Hampshire Senate Race is a Big Race to me. A narrow Hassan win means the GOP will do quite well in the rest of the Country and it will tell you everything about the National Political Environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol MARIST polled GA, AZ and PA and Ds outvoted Rs 70/30 for Fetterman over Oz in EV, Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win

[Devils30]

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.

[wbrocks67]

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.

From what I can tell, it looks like their RV sample was Biden +7, but their LV sample cuts out more Biden voters than Trump voters. Goes to Biden +3 (rounded)

Curious what the RV result was then.

RV:
2020 Biden - 1,168 (52%)
2020 Trump - 1,005 (45%)

LV:
2020 Biden - 1,024 (51%)
2020 Trump - 968 (49%)

[Devils30]

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.

From what I can tell, it looks like their RV sample was Biden +7, but their LV sample cuts out more Biden voters than Trump voters. Goes to Biden +3 (rounded)

Curious what the RV result was then.

RV:
2020 Biden - 1,168 (52%)
2020 Trump - 1,005 (45%)

LV:
2020 Biden - 1,024 (51%)
2020 Trump - 968 (49%)

That's a big mistake as NH is a completely white state, meaning white college will be a higher % in a midterm. This state really does not have the type of demographics Dems struggle with.

[Sir Mohamed]

Those New Hampshire whites can definitely swing in a wave. I think she'll survive but looks close.

Yup, that looks like NH-Sen 2014 all over again. Perhaps even closer.

That said, Hassan seems a weak candidate, though she really got lucky to face "only" Bolduc. Sununu would easily win this, and even Ayotte would be leading.

[David Hume]

NH-GOV & NH-01 numbers make me believe this is a fairly rosy poll for Democrats, but it’s obviously an extremely tight race.

Also worth noting that while WMUR/UNH got the presidential race right in 2020, they missed badly in their final 2016 (Clinton +11, Van Ostern +11, Hassan +4) and 2018 (tie between Chris Sununu and Molly Kelly) polls.

This. There is no way that Sununu only wins by 12. Their 2020 poll underestimated Sununu by 8 and 2018 by 7.

[Woody]

Had Hassan up 49-45 in 16'.

Tilt R.

[Agafin]

Why did the GOP triage this race of it is so close?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Had Hassan up 49-45 in 16'.

Tilt R.

They also had Ayotte winning and she lost Tilt D

[bilaps]

Hassan is going to squeeze it out, but at this point I would be surprised if Dems hold senate.