NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2
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  NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2
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Author Topic: NH Sen - University of New Hampshire - Hassan+2  (Read 619 times)
AncestralDemocrat.
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« on: November 06, 2022, 07:22:06 PM »

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kwabbit
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2022, 07:24:14 PM »

In September UNH had:

49-41 Hassan
48-45 Kuster
50-43 Pappas
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2022, 07:28:34 PM »

NH-GOV & NH-01 numbers make me believe this is a fairly rosy poll for Democrats, but it’s obviously an extremely tight race.

Also worth noting that while WMUR/UNH got the presidential race right in 2020, they missed badly in their final 2016 (Clinton +11, Van Ostern +11, Hassan +4) and 2018 (tie between Chris Sununu and Molly Kelly) polls.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2022, 07:29:24 PM »

Hassan is going to blow this.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2022, 07:31:52 PM »

They’re all at 50.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2022, 07:32:15 PM »

Confirms it's a 303 not 413 or 225 map like it always was
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Sestak
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2022, 07:40:57 PM »

Terrible poll for John Fetterman. The northeast collapse is real.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2022, 07:42:36 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2022, 08:18:26 PM by South Dakota Democrat »

Terrible poll for John Fetterman. The northeast collapse is real.

?!?!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2022, 07:46:44 PM »

Those New Hampshire whites can definitely swing in a wave. I think she'll survive but looks close.
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2016
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2022, 07:48:34 PM »

Yes, but a 52-48 Win by Hassan or Pappas doesn't bode very well for the rest of the Country see 2014 when Shaheen narrowly beat Scott Brown 52-48.

The New Hampshire Senate Race is a Big Race to me. A narrow Hassan win means the GOP will do quite well in the rest of the Country and it will tell you everything about the National Political Environment.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2022, 07:51:39 PM »

Lol MARIST polled GA, AZ and PA and Ds outvoted Rs 70/30 for Fetterman over Oz in EV, Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2022, 08:20:13 PM »

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2022, 08:47:34 PM »

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.

From what I can tell, it looks like their RV sample was Biden +7, but their LV sample cuts out more Biden voters than Trump voters. Goes to Biden +3 (rounded)

Curious what the RV result was then.

RV:
2020 Biden - 1,168 (52%)
2020 Trump - 1,005 (45%)

LV:
2020 Biden - 1,024 (51%)
2020 Trump - 968 (49%)
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2022, 11:48:13 PM »

There is little crossover from 2020 Biden, 2020 Trump supporters, perhaps the sample is a bit too red? The toplines say 52-45 Biden but the sample has 1024 Biden, 968 Trump would be about a Biden +2 sample.

From what I can tell, it looks like their RV sample was Biden +7, but their LV sample cuts out more Biden voters than Trump voters. Goes to Biden +3 (rounded)

Curious what the RV result was then.

RV:
2020 Biden - 1,168 (52%)
2020 Trump - 1,005 (45%)

LV:
2020 Biden - 1,024 (51%)
2020 Trump - 968 (49%)

That's a big mistake as NH is a completely white state, meaning white college will be a higher % in a midterm. This state really does not have the type of demographics Dems struggle with.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2022, 02:49:58 AM »

Those New Hampshire whites can definitely swing in a wave. I think she'll survive but looks close.

Yup, that looks like NH-Sen 2014 all over again. Perhaps even closer.

That said, Hassan seems a weak candidate, though she really got lucky to face "only" Bolduc. Sununu would easily win this, and even Ayotte would be leading.
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David Hume
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2022, 02:58:25 AM »

NH-GOV & NH-01 numbers make me believe this is a fairly rosy poll for Democrats, but it’s obviously an extremely tight race.

Also worth noting that while WMUR/UNH got the presidential race right in 2020, they missed badly in their final 2016 (Clinton +11, Van Ostern +11, Hassan +4) and 2018 (tie between Chris Sununu and Molly Kelly) polls.
This. There is no way that Sununu only wins by 12. Their 2020 poll underestimated Sununu by 8 and 2018 by 7.
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Woody
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2022, 03:54:54 AM »

Had Hassan up 49-45 in 16'.

Tilt R.
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Agafin
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2022, 05:06:06 AM »

Why did the GOP triage this race of it is so close?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2022, 05:13:50 AM »


They also had Ayotte winning and she lost Tilt D
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bilaps
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2022, 06:10:48 AM »

Hassan is going to squeeze it out, but at this point I would be surprised if Dems hold senate.
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