NH-SEN (Emerson): Hassan +4

[wbrocks67]

With leaners-

Hassan (D) 50%
Bolduc (R) 46%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-hassan-maintains-narrow-lead-over-bolduc/

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tilt D.

Leaning towards AZ and obviously NV flipping before NH.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Tilt D.

Leaning towards AZ and obviously NV flipping before NH.

Not PA, AD?

[prag_prog]

I kinda wonder how a college polling firm like Emerson is able to do so many polls despite polling being so expensive these days. They don't even have sponsors for most of the polls or atleast I've only seen them mention who's sponsoring the poll very rarely

[wbrocks67]

I kinda wonder how a college polling firm like Emerson is able to do so many polls despite polling being so expensive these days. They don't even have sponsors for most of the polls or atleast I've only seen them mention who's sponsoring the poll very rarely

My thoughts exactly, also on Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Cygnal, etc. I get they are "cheaper" because some use IVR or text, but firms like InsiderAdvantage polling 500+ voters in a single day just seems not possible to me. Even if you're doing it thru text with like 2 questions max.

[free my dawg]

Seems more like the likely result. Hassan by 3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Sir Woodbury whom said NH was Tilt R

[MillennialModerate]

I trust Emerson polls but from my experience north of the border I have a hard time with this one

[MT Treasurer]

So it’s a NH poll and they seriously didn’t provide the female/male breakdown in support for Hassan/Democrats anywhere? (Saint Anselm did it*, as any proper pollster with some understanding of the state would do)

*Female: 39% Bolduc, 56% Hassan
Male: 57% Bolduc, 38% Hassan

Forgive me if I wait for another NH poll before predicting this one.

e: Never mind, they did! I can take this seriously then.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean D.

Hassan is going to win by a 2014 redux at worst. My expectation is 5-7 pt. margin in the end. That said, Bolduc is more likely to win than Beasley or Ryan; perhaps even more likely than Barnes.

[xavier110]

So it’s a NH poll and they seriously didn’t provide the female/male breakdown in support for Hassan/Democrats anywhere? (Saint Anselm did it*, as any proper pollster with some understanding of the state would do)

*Female: 39% Bolduc, 56% Hassan
Male: 57% Bolduc, 38% Hassan

Forgive me if I wait for another NH poll before predicting this one.

Cross tabs say

Female: 52 Hassan, 42 Bolduc
Male: 45 Hassan, 50 Bolduc

Meh!

[MT Treasurer]

So it’s a NH poll and they seriously didn’t provide the female/male breakdown in support for Hassan/Democrats anywhere? (Saint Anselm did it*, as any proper pollster with some understanding of the state would do)

*Female: 39% Bolduc, 56% Hassan
Male: 57% Bolduc, 38% Hassan

Forgive me if I wait for another NH poll before predicting this one.

Cross tabs say

Female: 52 Hassan, 42 Bolduc
Male: 45 Hassan, 50 Bolduc

Meh!

Thanks, but where did you find those? I even checked out their Full Results file.

[xavier110]

So it’s a NH poll and they seriously didn’t provide the female/male breakdown in support for Hassan/Democrats anywhere? (Saint Anselm did it*, as any proper pollster with some understanding of the state would do)

*Female: 39% Bolduc, 56% Hassan
Male: 57% Bolduc, 38% Hassan

Forgive me if I wait for another NH poll before predicting this one.

Cross tabs say

Female: 52 Hassan, 42 Bolduc
Male: 45 Hassan, 50 Bolduc

Meh!

Thanks, but where did you find those? I even checked out their Full Results file.

There are multiple tabs in the file, one is crosstabs

[Tekken_Guy]

Lean D.

Hassan is going to win by a 2014 redux at worst. My expectation is 5-7 pt. margin in the end. That said, Bolduc is more likely to win than Beasley or Ryan; perhaps even more likely than Barnes.

More like Tilt D. Bolduc could still get swept in on a bad night for Democrats.

[jamestroll]

What I do not understand is.. with every single poll ... everyone changes their rating of a race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, but Woodbury said NH was Lean R since Trafalgar has Bolduc +1.1, again he is nowhere to be found

Hassan was never vulnerable, unless SUNUNU ran she would have LOST

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This looks plausible. Bolduc has a strong close to his campaign, and Hassan looks likely to limp over the finish line, again...

[Calthrina950]

This looks plausible. Bolduc has a strong close to his campaign, and Hassan looks likely to limp over the finish line, again...

This is my thinking as well, although I don't think we can rule out a Bolduc upset at this point.

[wbrocks67]

This looks plausible. Bolduc has a strong close to his campaign, and Hassan looks likely to limp over the finish line, again...

Is getting triaged by the national party and talking about litter boxes in schools considered a strong close now? We're just saying anything these days...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This looks plausible. Bolduc has a strong close to his campaign, and Hassan looks likely to limp over the finish line, again...

Is getting triaged by the national party and talking about litter boxes in schools considered a strong close now? We're just saying anything these days...

His debate performance was good. I know those usually don't matter, but Bolduc's worst stuff was not advertised much, and he rallied a bit as of late, after being rather sluggish for a very long time.
Also, Rs may not have invested much, but Ds pulled their money from here as well...