AZ-SEN (Emerson): tie

[wbrocks67]

Kelly (D) 48%
Masters (R) 48%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-us-senate-and-gubernatorial-elections-in-dead-heat/

[wbrocks67]

Something that has been consistent here has been Kelly and Hobbs winning Independents - both are winning by about 8% here. Unless the GOP has a huge advantage over Dems, Hobbs and Kelly should be in good shape if their actually winning Indies by that amount.

[wbrocks67]

these numbers are believable, but Masters having good favorables while Kelly is underwater is not. There is no universe where that is true.

Yeah, the Masters 50/46 fav is certainly suspect.

Since Emerson did not poll in Spanish in NV, do we know if they did here? They also have Masters and Kelly very close among Latinos, which doesn't really jive with other results, and I wonder if it's because of the no-spanish polling.

[wbrocks67]

these numbers are believable, but Masters having good favorables while Kelly is underwater is not. There is no universe where that is true.

Yeah, the Masters 50/46 fav is certainly suspect.

Since Emerson did not poll in Spanish in NV, do we know if they did here? They also have Masters and Kelly very close among Latinos, which doesn't really jive with other results, and I wonder if it's because of the no-spanish polling.

What has been consistent in almost all AZ polls is Ds (including Hobbs) pull 10 percent of Rs and outright win Is. Only question is the composition of the final electorate because theoretically that provides a path to narrow D victories here.

Yep, this one is R+10. Looks like CNN's exit poll has 2020 at R+9 and 2018 at R+5.