AZ-SEN (Emerson): tie
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  AZ-SEN (Emerson): tie
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN (Emerson): tie  (Read 857 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: November 04, 2022, 09:44:31 AM »

Kelly (D) 48%
Masters (R) 48%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-us-senate-and-gubernatorial-elections-in-dead-heat/
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2022, 09:46:02 AM »

The Libertarian candidate dropped out but MARIST already poll this already Kelly is leading
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2022, 09:51:15 AM »

Hey Pollster, how does the 48% rule work if both candidates are at 48%?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2022, 09:51:27 AM »

Something that has been consistent here has been Kelly and Hobbs winning Independents - both are winning by about 8% here. Unless the GOP has a huge advantage over Dems, Hobbs and Kelly should be in good shape if their actually winning Indies by that amount.
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Matty
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2022, 09:52:49 AM »

Something that has been consistent here has been Kelly and Hobbs winning Independents - both are winning by about 8% here. Unless the GOP has a huge advantage over Dems, Hobbs and Kelly should be in good shape if their actually winning Indies by that amount.

Why donít you apply this logic to many other polls nationally and in other states which show reps winning Indies by large margins?
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2022, 09:53:51 AM »

Yep.. NV and AZ are the most likely republican flips.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2022, 09:54:43 AM »

Very hard time seeing Kelly win, he could do it but it will be very close.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2022, 10:02:41 AM »

Yep.. NV and AZ are the most likely republican flips.

They always have been, in my view. GA/NH could certainly happen on a big night but probably belong in a separate category (GA in large part because of the runoff law).
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2022, 10:04:42 AM »

Masters still hasnít led.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2022, 10:06:23 AM »

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2022, 10:07:21 AM »

Very hard time seeing Kelly win, he could do it but it will be very close.

He's leading in most of the polls. I think he's still more likely to win than Warnock.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2022, 10:16:21 AM »

THE SKY IS FALLING. EVERYONE PANIC
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2022, 10:18:45 AM »

Hey Pollster, how does the 48% rule work if both candidates are at 48%?

Then the election is decided by dance off.
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xavier110
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2022, 10:31:52 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2022, 10:35:24 AM by xavier110 »

these numbers are believable, but Masters having good favorables while Kelly is underwater is not. There is no universe where that is true.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2022, 10:37:28 AM »

these numbers are believable, but Masters having good favorables while Kelly is underwater is not. There is no universe where that is true.

Yeah, the Masters 50/46 fav is certainly suspect.

Since Emerson did not poll in Spanish in NV, do we know if they did here? They also have Masters and Kelly very close among Latinos, which doesn't really jive with other results, and I wonder if it's because of the no-spanish polling.
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xavier110
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2022, 10:40:35 AM »

these numbers are believable, but Masters having good favorables while Kelly is underwater is not. There is no universe where that is true.

Yeah, the Masters 50/46 fav is certainly suspect.

Since Emerson did not poll in Spanish in NV, do we know if they did here? They also have Masters and Kelly very close among Latinos, which doesn't really jive with other results, and I wonder if it's because of the no-spanish polling.

What has been consistent in almost all AZ polls is Ds (including Hobbs) pull 10 percent of Rs and outright win Is. Only question is the composition of the final electorate because theoretically that provides a path to narrow D victories here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2022, 10:50:35 AM »

these numbers are believable, but Masters having good favorables while Kelly is underwater is not. There is no universe where that is true.

Yeah, the Masters 50/46 fav is certainly suspect.

Since Emerson did not poll in Spanish in NV, do we know if they did here? They also have Masters and Kelly very close among Latinos, which doesn't really jive with other results, and I wonder if it's because of the no-spanish polling.

What has been consistent in almost all AZ polls is Ds (including Hobbs) pull 10 percent of Rs and outright win Is. Only question is the composition of the final electorate because theoretically that provides a path to narrow D victories here.

Yep, this one is R+10. Looks like CNN's exit poll has 2020 at R+9 and 2018 at R+5.
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THKL
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2022, 05:13:13 PM »

Unironically this.
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