Xing's final prediction
Xing:
There might be four days left, but I'm ready to make my final prediction for this cycle and hunker down for the continuation of a deeply depressing era of politics. I'm not especially confident in quite a few of these, though I've consistently thought that a fairly good night for Republicans is the most likely (though far from a certain) outcome. I will absolutely refrain from gloating if I'm right about most of this, or if Republicans do worse than I'm expecting and thus the resulting are more to my liking than I'm predicting (or better put, less bad, since I've lost a lot of faith in Democrats to get anything done, in part due to cowardice, in part due to blatantly partisan courts.) I would really encourage other members of the forum, regardless of how they believe they've been treated, to do the same. Almost everyone feels as though, at some point, they've been wrongly attacked or targeted for simply holding the beliefs they do or making predictions that might not be popular. That said, we all have to recognize that this does not mean that we should do the same to other people, nor does it "justify" doing so. Predictions, at the end of the day, are educated guesses, and we're all going to be wrong sometimes. The fact that there is so much smugness, arrogance, and rubbing it in (before the election has even happened, no less!) has been a big motivator in my time off from posting. I just don't want to get sucked into that anymore.
So, without further ado...
Generic Congressional Ballot: R +2.5
Senate: 52 R - 48 D
Notable races:
Arizona: Tilt R, Masters +1 (FLIP)
Colorado: Likely D, Bennet +6.5
Florida: Safe R, Rubio +8.5
Georgia: Tilt D, Warnock +1 (run-off)
Iowa: Safe R, Grassley +15.5
Nevada: Tilt R, Laxalt +1.5 (FLIP)
New Hampshire: Lean D, Hassan +3.5
North Carolina: Likely R, Budd +5.5
Ohio: Likely R, Vance +7.5
Pennsylvania: Lean R, Oz +2.5
Washington: Safe D, Murray +11
Wisconsin: Likely R, Johnson +4.5
Governor: 29 R - 21 D
Notable Races:
Alaska: Likely R, Dunleavy +11
Arizona: Lean R, Lake +4
Colorado: Safe D, Polis +10
Connecticut: Likely D, Lamont +7.5
Florida: Safe R, DeSantis +9
Georgia: Likely R, Kemp +5
Kansas: Lean R, Schmidt +4 (FLIP)
Maine: Lean D, Mills +3.5
Maryland: Safe D, Moore +22 (FLIP)
Massachusetts: Safe D, Healey +25 (FLIP)
Michigan: Tilt D, Whitmer +0.5
Minnesota: Lean D, Walz +3
Nevada: Tilt R, Lombardo +2 (FLIP)
New Mexico: Lean D, Lujan Grisham +2.5
New York: Likely D, Hochul +8
Oklahoma: Likely R, Stitt +9.5
Oregon: Lean D, Kotek +2.5
Pennsylvania: Likely D, Shapiro +5
Rhode Island: Likely D, McKee +8
Texas: Safe R, Abbott +11
Wisconsin: Tilt R, Michels +2 (FLIP)
House: 236 R - 199 D
Gains:
In favor of Republicans: AZ-02, AZ-06, CA-13, CO-08, CT-05, FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, IA-03, ME-02, MI-07, MI-10, MN-02, NV-03, NH-01, NJ-07, NY-03, NY-19, OR-05, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TN-05, TX-15, TX-34, VA-02, WI-03
In favor of Democrats: IL-13, MI-03
My "gut" is thoroughly confused by this election, thus I'm going against it in several races, and while part of me believes that Republicans will hold 30 or 31 gubernatorial races when all is said and done, I'm just not sure the numbers add up for them in any of ME/MI/NM/OR, where I think they'll come close.
This prediction pretty clearly doesn't reflect what I want to happen, though the way I would describe this scenario, if it plays out, would be something like this, which I've said on the forum before: "Democrats deserved to get shellacked, but Republicans did not deserve to be the ones doing the shellacking." We'll see what happens soon enough, though.
Mr.Phips:
Quote from: Xing on November 04, 2022, 09:04:07 AM
There might be four days left, but I'm ready to make my final prediction for this cycle and hunker down for the continuation of a deeply depressing era of politics. I'm not especially confident in quite a few of these, though I've consistently thought that a fairly good night for Republicans is the most likely (though far from a certain) outcome. I will absolutely refrain from gloating if I'm right about most of this, or if Republicans do worse than I'm expecting and thus the resulting are more to my liking than I'm predicting (or better put, less bad, since I've lost a lot of faith in Democrats to get anything done, in part due to cowardice, in part due to blatantly partisan courts.) I would really encourage other members of the forum, regardless of how they believe they've been treated, to do the same. Almost everyone feels as though, at some point, they've been wrongly attacked or targeted for simply holding the beliefs they do or making predictions that might not be popular. That said, we all have to recognize that this does not mean that we should do the same to other people, nor does it "justify" doing so. Predictions, at the end of the day, are educated guesses, and we're all going to be wrong sometimes. The fact that there is so much smugness, arrogance, and rubbing it in (before the election has even happened, no less!) has been a big motivator in my time off from posting. I just don't want to get sucked into that anymore.
So, without further ado...
Generic Congressional Ballot: R +2.5
Senate: 52 R - 48 D
Notable races:
Arizona: Tilt R, Masters +1 (FLIP)
Colorado: Likely D, Bennet +6.5
Florida: Safe R, Rubio +8.5
Georgia: Tilt D, Warnock +1 (run-off)
Iowa: Safe R, Grassley +15.5
Nevada: Tilt R, Laxalt +1.5 (FLIP)
New Hampshire: Lean D, Hassan +3.5
North Carolina: Likely R, Budd +5.5
Ohio: Likely R, Vance +7.5
Pennsylvania: Lean R, Oz +2.5
Washington: Safe D, Murray +11
Wisconsin: Likely R, Johnson +4.5
Governor: 29 R - 21 D
Notable Races:
Alaska: Likely R, Dunleavy +11
Arizona: Lean R, Lake +4
Colorado: Safe D, Polis +10
Connecticut: Likely D, Lamont +7.5
Florida: Safe R, DeSantis +9
Georgia: Likely R, Kemp +5
Kansas: Lean R, Schmidt +4 (FLIP)
Maine: Lean D, Mills +3.5
Maryland: Safe D, Moore +22 (FLIP)
Massachusetts: Safe D, Healey +25 (FLIP)
Michigan: Tilt D, Whitmer +0.5
Minnesota: Lean D, Walz +3
Nevada: Tilt R, Lombardo +2 (FLIP)
New Mexico: Lean D, Lujan Grisham +2.5
New York: Likely D, Hochul +8
Oklahoma: Likely R, Stitt +9.5
Oregon: Lean D, Kotek +2.5
Pennsylvania: Likely D, Shapiro +5
Rhode Island: Likely D, McKee +8
Texas: Safe R, Abbott +11
Wisconsin: Tilt R, Michels +2 (FLIP)
House: 235 R - 200 D
Gains:
In favor of Republicans: AZ-02, AZ-06, CA-13, CO-08, FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, IA-03, ME-02, MI-07, MI-10, MN-02, NV-03, NH-01, NJ-07, NY-03, NY-19, OR-05, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TN-05, TX-15, TX-34, VA-02, WI-03
In favor of Democrats: IL-13, MI-03
My "gut" is thoroughly confused by this election, thus I'm going against it in several races, and while part of me believes that Republicans will hold 30 or 31 gubernatorial races when all is said and done, I'm just not sure the numbers add up for them in any of ME/MI/NM/OR, where I think they'll come close.
This prediction pretty clearly doesn't reflect what I want to happen, though the way I would describe this scenario, if it plays out, would be something like this, which I've said on the forum before: "Democrats deserved to get shellacked, but Republicans did not deserve to be the ones doing the shellacking." We'll see what happens soon enough, though.
Michigan will be very scary on election night when Dixon leads before the absentees drop.
smoltchanov:
Quote from: Xing on November 04, 2022, 09:04:07 AM
There might be four days left, but I'm ready to make my final prediction for this cycle and hunker down for the continuation of a deeply depressing era of politics. I'm not especially confident in quite a few of these, though I've consistently thought that a fairly good night for Republicans is the most likely (though far from a certain) outcome. I will absolutely refrain from gloating if I'm right about most of this, or if Republicans do worse than I'm expecting and thus the resulting are more to my liking than I'm predicting (or better put, less bad, since I've lost a lot of faith in Democrats to get anything done, in part due to cowardice, in part due to blatantly partisan courts.) I would really encourage other members of the forum, regardless of how they believe they've been treated, to do the same. Almost everyone feels as though, at some point, they've been wrongly attacked or targeted for simply holding the beliefs they do or making predictions that might not be popular. That said, we all have to recognize that this does not mean that we should do the same to other people, nor does it "justify" doing so. Predictions, at the end of the day, are educated guesses, and we're all going to be wrong sometimes. The fact that there is so much smugness, arrogance, and rubbing it in (before the election has even happened, no less!) has been a big motivator in my time off from posting. I just don't want to get sucked into that anymore.
So, without further ado...
Generic Congressional Ballot: R +2.5
Senate: 52 R - 48 D
Notable races:
Arizona: Tilt R, Masters +1 (FLIP)
Colorado: Likely D, Bennet +6.5
Florida: Safe R, Rubio +8.5
Georgia: Tilt D, Warnock +1 (run-off)
Iowa: Safe R, Grassley +15.5
Nevada: Tilt R, Laxalt +1.5 (FLIP)
New Hampshire: Lean D, Hassan +3.5
North Carolina: Likely R, Budd +5.5
Ohio: Likely R, Vance +7.5
Pennsylvania: Lean R, Oz +2.5
Washington: Safe D, Murray +11
Wisconsin: Likely R, Johnson +4.5
Governor: 29 R - 21 D
Notable Races:
Alaska: Likely R, Dunleavy +11
Arizona: Lean R, Lake +4
Colorado: Safe D, Polis +10
Connecticut: Likely D, Lamont +7.5
Florida: Safe R, DeSantis +9
Georgia: Likely R, Kemp +5
Kansas: Lean R, Schmidt +4 (FLIP)
Maine: Lean D, Mills +3.5
Maryland: Safe D, Moore +22 (FLIP)
Massachusetts: Safe D, Healey +25 (FLIP)
Michigan: Tilt D, Whitmer +0.5
Minnesota: Lean D, Walz +3
Nevada: Tilt R, Lombardo +2 (FLIP)
New Mexico: Lean D, Lujan Grisham +2.5
New York: Likely D, Hochul +8
Oklahoma: Likely R, Stitt +9.5
Oregon: Lean D, Kotek +2.5
Pennsylvania: Likely D, Shapiro +5
Rhode Island: Likely D, McKee +8
Texas: Safe R, Abbott +11
Wisconsin: Tilt R, Michels +2 (FLIP)
House: 235 R - 200 D
Gains:
In favor of Republicans: AZ-02, AZ-06, CA-13, CO-08, FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, GA-06, IA-03, ME-02, MI-07, MI-10, MN-02, NV-03, NH-01, NJ-07, NY-03, NY-19, OR-05, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TN-05, TX-15, TX-34, VA-02, WI-03
In favor of Democrats: IL-13, MI-03
My "gut" is thoroughly confused by this election, thus I'm going against it in several races, and while part of me believes that Republicans will hold 30 or 31 gubernatorial races when all is said and done, I'm just not sure the numbers add up for them in any of ME/MI/NM/OR, where I think they'll come close.
This prediction pretty clearly doesn't reflect what I want to happen, though the way I would describe this scenario, if it plays out, would be something like this, which I've said on the forum before: "Democrats deserved to get shellacked, but Republicans did not deserve to be the ones doing the shellacking." We'll see what happens soon enough, though.
Generally - very similar to my feelings (though i expect Senate 51R-49D). The voters are "coming home" (in such states as Ohio, Oklahoma and some other - Republicans, in Oregon - Democrats), so - number of possible surprises dwindles considerably. This year will NOT be so bad for Democrats as 2010 and 2014, but will be bad enough to think about changing at least accents of strategy: as important as abortion rights (and LGBT rights too) are (and i am pro-choice and support LGBT rights) "bread and butter issues" will trump (sorry) them in minds of the people. IMHO - Democrats must return to FDR roots, and pay much more attention to them, and slightly less - to "burning social issues". After all - if a person has nothing to live on - he/she will NOT think about these "burning rights"....
Xing:
Wasn’t going to update this, though one House race, CT-05, did fly under my radar. I’ll agree with the consensus that it’ll be a Republican pick-up, so the House will be 236-199.
Sir Mohamed:
Quote from: Xing on November 08, 2022, 09:54:11 AM
Wasn’t going to update this, though one House race, CT-05, did fly under my radar. I’ll agree with the consensus that it’ll be a Republican pick-up, so the House will be 236-199.
Hasn't the Dem led all polls here except one GOP internal? If Blumenthal and Lamont win by double digits, that seat isn't going to flip.
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