MI: EPIC/MRA: Gov. Whitmer (D) opens double-digit lead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Michigan Governor by EPIC/MRA on 2022-11-01

Summary: D: 54%, R: 43%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Person Man]

It would take Republicans gaining 30 seats and 4 or 5 senate seats for Dixon to have a chance.

[Duke of York]

Whitmer is going to win. the only question is by how much.

[DS0816]

Key problems with this poll:


17. What would you say is the one single issue that has been discussed in the campaigns for governor that influenced you the most to vote in the November 8th election?

43% Abortion/Reproductive freedom
28% Inflation/Cost of living
…


35. Sex of respondent (BY OBSERVATION ONLY)

47% Male
53% Female



Conclusion:

I am not arguing whether or not Michigan Democratic incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer will win re-election. I do not think she will overperform her 2018-to-2022 margins. That she will not, should she win re-election, prevail by +11 when her 2018 Democratic pickup was a margin of +9.56. This is a midterm election going against the White House incumbent Democratic Party—to the point of a Red Wave—and Michigan is a bellwether state. I would guess, whether or not Whitmer will win re-election, her 2018-to-2022 margins will decrease.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Key problems with this poll:


17. What would you say is the one single issue that has been discussed in the campaigns for governor that influenced you the most to vote in the November 8th election?

43% Abortion/Reproductive freedom
28% Inflation/Cost of living
…


35. Sex of respondent (BY OBSERVATION ONLY)

47% Male
53% Female



Conclusion:

I am not arguing whether or not Michigan Democratic incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer will win re-election. I do not think she will overperform her 2018-to-2022 margins. That she will not, should she win re-election, prevail by +11 when her 2018 Democratic pickup was a margin of +9.56. This is a midterm election going against the White House incumbent Democratic Party—to the point of a Red Wave—and Michigan is a bellwether state. I would guess, whether or not Whitmer will win re-election, her 2018-to-2022 margins will decrease.

What are you saying is the problem here?

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, not sure how that's a key problem - abortion is *literally* on the ballot this year in Michigan, so I would assume it would be close to a top issue for many.

[Lief 🗽]

Key problems with this poll:


17. What would you say is the one single issue that has been discussed in the campaigns for governor that influenced you the most to vote in the November 8th election?

43% Abortion/Reproductive freedom
28% Inflation/Cost of living
…


35. Sex of respondent (BY OBSERVATION ONLY)

47% Male
53% Female



Conclusion:

I am not arguing whether or not Michigan Democratic incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer will win re-election. I do not think she will overperform her 2018-to-2022 margins. That she will not, should she win re-election, prevail by +11 when her 2018 Democratic pickup was a margin of +9.56. This is a midterm election going against the White House incumbent Democratic Party—to the point of a Red Wave—and Michigan is a bellwether state. I would guess, whether or not Whitmer will win re-election, her 2018-to-2022 margins will decrease.

The exit poll had almost the exact same numbers on most important issue: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/michigan/governor/0

Abortion 45%
Inflation 28%

[DS0816]

Key problems with this poll:


17. What would you say is the one single issue that has been discussed in the campaigns for governor that influenced you the most to vote in the November 8th election?

43% Abortion/Reproductive freedom
28% Inflation/Cost of living
…


35. Sex of respondent (BY OBSERVATION ONLY)

47% Male
53% Female



Conclusion:

I am not arguing whether or not Michigan Democratic incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer will win re-election. I do not think she will overperform her 2018-to-2022 margins. That she will not, should she win re-election, prevail by +11 when her 2018 Democratic pickup was a margin of +9.56. This is a midterm election going against the White House incumbent Democratic Party—to the point of a Red Wave—and Michigan is a bellwether state. I would guess, whether or not Whitmer will win re-election, her 2018-to-2022 margins will decrease.

The exit poll had almost the exact same numbers on most important issue: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/michigan/governor/0

Abortion 45%
Inflation 28%

I realized this later.

I was mistaken.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bernie Porn wins again!