Jasper County South Carolina

[scared of myself]

It's a longtime Dem county that Biden just barely won. How does it trend?

[TML]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

[scared of myself]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Do you think Tim Scott wins it for the Senate this year?

[Vosem]

The demographic trend here is such that it's virtually certainly Republican in 2024 even in a Democratic tsunami.

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Do you think Tim Scott wins it for the Senate this year?

Yes, though I think Cunningham still has it. In the fairly near future it won't even be part of a winning Democratic map, I think.

[GollumAttorney]

The demographic trend here is such that it's virtually certainly Republican in 2024 even in a Democratic tsunami.

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Do you think Tim Scott wins it for the Senate this year?

Yes, though I think Cunningham still has it. In the fairly near future it won't even be part of a winning Democratic map, I think.

Turns out McMaster won it strongly as well.

I think it’s basically a guaranteed county flip in 2024.

[Red Wall]

Will definitely flip, rural southern black counties at this point need to be like 60% black for a dem to win

[Schiff for Senate]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Am I reading that right?
And if that's the case, how the hell did Biden manage to win it at all? I can't see any rural southern county that's just 33% black coming remotely close to voting for Biden.

[Schiff for Senate]

Will definitely flip, rural southern black counties at this point need to be like 60% black for a dem to win

This is a big exaggeration, but I will admit, the underperformances in black counties in the South was concerning...this happened in AR (see: AR-GOV, AR-SEN), TN (see: TN-GOV, where Lee flipped majority-black Haywood, leaving only the urban counties of Davidson and Shelby in the Democratic column), MS (no governor or senate races, but in MS02 - MS' black district - Thompson, against the same opponent he faced in 2020, couldn't even manage 60% despite winning over 66% in 2020; and he underperformed Biden 2020 by quite a good amount despite otherwise being a consistent outperformer), and, as I check right now, SC (SC06 was Biden+32.4, but just Clyburn+24.2 this time...Clyburn won by over 37 points in 2020, and the district got only 3 points redder in redistricting)

[TML]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Am I reading that right?
And if that's the case, how the hell did Biden manage to win it at all? I can't see any rural southern county that's just 33% black coming remotely close to voting for Biden.

The 2020 Census indicated that this county is a “minority coalition” county - 45% White, 33% Black, 18% Hispanic, 4% Other. Biden only won this county by a fraction of a percent - most likely because of its “minority coalition” status.

[Schiff for Senate]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Am I reading that right?
And if that's the case, how the hell did Biden manage to win it at all? I can't see any rural southern county that's just 33% black coming remotely close to voting for Biden.

The 2020 Census indicated that this county is a “minority coalition” county - 45% White, 33% Black, 18% Hispanic, 4% Other. Biden only won this county by a fraction of a percent - most likely because of its “minority coalition” status.

Ahhh. That's what it is then. Much higher Hispanic population than anticipated. Incidentally, this county isn't really rural, is it? Because I find it difficult to believe a truly rural southern county (assuming, of course, we aren't counting the RGV as "Southern," because it isn't) would have a Hispanic proportion this high.

[Central Lake]

Will definitely flip, rural southern black counties at this point need to be like 60% black for a dem to win

This is a big exaggeration, but I will admit, the underperformances in black counties in the South was concerning...this happened in AR (see: AR-GOV, AR-SEN), TN (see: TN-GOV, where Lee flipped majority-black Haywood, leaving only the urban counties of Davidson and Shelby in the Democratic column), MS (no governor or senate races, but in MS02 - MS' black district - Thompson, against the same opponent he faced in 2020, couldn't even manage 60% despite winning over 66% in 2020; and he underperformed Biden 2020 by quite a good amount despite otherwise being a consistent outperformer), and, as I check right now, SC (SC06 was Biden+32.4, but just Clyburn+24.2 this time...Clyburn won by over 37 points in 2020, and the district got only 3 points redder in redistricting)

Have you checked and if so made similar observations in North Carolina and Georgia?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Will definitely flip, rural southern black counties at this point need to be like 60% black for a dem to win

This is a big exaggeration, but I will admit, the underperformances in black counties in the South was concerning...this happened in AR (see: AR-GOV, AR-SEN), TN (see: TN-GOV, where Lee flipped majority-black Haywood, leaving only the urban counties of Davidson and Shelby in the Democratic column), MS (no governor or senate races, but in MS02 - MS' black district - Thompson, against the same opponent he faced in 2020, couldn't even manage 60% despite winning over 66% in 2020; and he underperformed Biden 2020 by quite a good amount despite otherwise being a consistent outperformer), and, as I check right now, SC (SC06 was Biden+32.4, but just Clyburn+24.2 this time...Clyburn won by over 37 points in 2020, and the district got only 3 points redder in redistricting)

Have you checked and if so made similar observations in North Carolina and Georgia?

NC-1 wound up being decided by less than five points and a state legislature seat covering much of the same area flipped Republican.

I've long said that Haywood County would eventually flip.  Lee flipping it in 2022 is probably the result of his massive overperformance in West Tennessee- just look at the fact that Shelby County was the second closest county in the whole state (after the aforementioned Haywood County).  Biden (or another Democrat) might win it in 2024, but it could flip in 2028 or 2032.

[lfromnj]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Am I reading that right?
And if that's the case, how the hell did Biden manage to win it at all? I can't see any rural southern county that's just 33% black coming remotely close to voting for Biden.

Other non whites and its being filled up with lower middle class retirees not deep southern whites, Overall it seems to be heading towards something like a mini version of Volusia County FL.

[Schiff for Senate]

I've long said that Haywood County would eventually flip.  Lee flipping it in 2022 is probably the result of his massive overperformance in West Tennessee- just look at the fact that Shelby County was the second closest county in the whole state (after the aforementioned Haywood County).  Biden (or another Democrat) might win it in 2024, but it could flip in 2028 or 2032.

Yeah, I have to admit that although I was quite skeptical, you were absolutely right - Lee did manage to flip Haywood.

Also that point about Shelby is highly surprising to me, though I’m not sure that it should. It’s worth noting that although Lamar Alexander in 2010-SEN didn’t do as well as Lee in 2022-GOV, he won 94/95 counties, including Shelby and Haywood (only lost Davidson), though needless to say, the rurals weren’t as red in 2010 as they are now. Why did Lee overperform so much in West TN, anyway?

[NorCalifornio]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Am I reading that right?
And if that's the case, how the hell did Biden manage to win it at all? I can't see any rural southern county that's just 33% black coming remotely close to voting for Biden.

The 2020 Census indicated that this county is a “minority coalition” county - 45% White, 33% Black, 18% Hispanic, 4% Other. Biden only won this county by a fraction of a percent - most likely because of its “minority coalition” status.

Ahhh. That's what it is then. Much higher Hispanic population than anticipated. Incidentally, this county isn't really rural, is it? Because I find it difficult to believe a truly rural southern county (assuming, of course, we aren't counting the RGV as "Southern," because it isn't) would have a Hispanic proportion this high.

Hispanics do farm labor in the South too. It's not nearly as common as it is in the West, but if I remember correctly there are a few rural counties in North Carolina and Georgia in the 15-25% Hispanic range.

Looking into Jasper County, I would call it rural. It includes some outskirts of the whole Bluffton-Hilton Head Island blob if you want to call that a city, but that's not where most of the people are. But agriculture doesn't seem to be that big of an industry there. It might be more the hospitality industry driving the growth of the Hispanic population. As someone else mentioned in this thread, there's plenty of retirees and tourism in that general area.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The recent shift toward Republicans is mostly attributable to the decreasing share of blacks in this county (blacks made up 53% of the county's population in 2000 but only 33% in 2020). This county could very well flip if this trend continues (many other Deep South counties have also flipped in recent years as a result of Black Flight).

Am I reading that right?
And if that's the case, how the hell did Biden manage to win it at all? I can't see any rural southern county that's just 33% black coming remotely close to voting for Biden.

The 2020 Census indicated that this county is a “minority coalition” county - 45% White, 33% Black, 18% Hispanic, 4% Other. Biden only won this county by a fraction of a percent - most likely because of its “minority coalition” status.

Ahhh. That's what it is then. Much higher Hispanic population than anticipated. Incidentally, this county isn't really rural, is it? Because I find it difficult to believe a truly rural southern county (assuming, of course, we aren't counting the RGV as "Southern," because it isn't) would have a Hispanic proportion this high.

Hispanics do farm labor in the South too. It's not nearly as common as it is in the West, but if I remember correctly there are a few rural counties in North Carolina and Georgia in the 15-25% Hispanic range.

It can be really surprising what areas in the South have the highest Hispanic populations.  Like, no one would guess that the most Hispanic county in Tennessee is Trump +52 Bedford County (home to Shelbyville, which is over one quarter Hispanic).