MN Gov (KSTP/SUSA): Walz 51 - Jensen 43

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1587565575366221825

[Minnesota Mike]

Republicans lead AG, Auditor races, Democrat SOS.

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1587558588188266497

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Governor numbers look right but I'd be surprised if Ellison is underrunning Walz that much...still not good.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Ellison doing so badly makes me feel better about Walz honestly.

[Minnesota Mike]

Jenson and Crocket are batsh**t crazy, Shultz and Wilson are plain vanilla. Boring Republicans do better in Minnesota.

[Calthrina950]

I think Ellison is going to lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Didn't Trafalgar have Jensen ahead

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reminder Ellison did trail by the same margin in a 2018 poll: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304615.0

[Minnesota Mike]

Crosstabs:

https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/KSTP-SurveyUSA-election-poll-11-1-22.pdf

They are projecting a Republican leaning electorate, R+3 party affiliation and Trump +2 recalled 2020 vote. I will just say I'm skeptical about that.

[wbrocks67]

Crosstabs:

https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/KSTP-SurveyUSA-election-poll-11-1-22.pdf

They are projecting a Republican leaning electorate, R+3 party affiliation and Trump +2 recalled 2020 vote. I will just say I'm skeptical about that.

This was the same issue with their NY poll - party ID (based on state reg) and 2020 vote recall were both much more R.

[wbrocks67]

I forgot that Trafalgar also had Jensen +1 here.

[Duke of York]

I forgot that Trafalgar also had Jensen +1 here.

why is everyone bringing Trafalgar up? Are they the only pollster that matters?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 said they are the most accurate Pollster

[Duke of York]

2016 said they are the most accurate Pollster

And they were not good in 2018 or 2020.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The poll literally has Walz ahead by 8 points and yall are saying the crosstabs are r biased? Jesus christ almighty!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I do like one thing in these crosstabs. Under religion:

Catholic
Jensen - 52
Walz - 45

Protestant
Jensen - 47
Walz - 49

Freedom subsample!

[H. Ross Peron]

Well I do like one thing in these crosstabs. Under religion:

Catholic
Jensen - 52
Walz - 45

Protestant
Jensen - 47
Walz - 49

Freedom subsample!

I wonder how much of this is driven by black Protestants. Seems to me Minnesota's white Catholic population is still relatively more urban than its white Protestant population, especially MN-7/8 rural counties that have swung right.

[Calthrina950]

The poll literally has Walz ahead by 8 points and yall are saying the crosstabs are r biased? Jesus christ almighty!

Our Minnesota posters seem to be firmly convinced that Ellison will win reelection. If he does, that would be a major polling error in favor of the Democrats.

[Dani Rose]

God love our state.

Also, I don't understand why critiquing crosstabs is so hated around here. Taking a deeper dive into numbers is a good way to see if a poll is fully reflective the electorate. Yes, I want Ellison to win too. Yes, I believe he's way more endangered than Walz and Simon. No, I don't think our electorate is going to be R+3, like Minnesota Mike said above me.

[Canis]

Survey USA is not a good pollster. It's good Walz is leading this much with that much of an R electorate. Ellison is in for a close race but I doubt he loses he's probably gonna win by an underwhelming margin again.

[Minnesota Mike]

The poll literally has Walz ahead by 8 points and yall are saying the crosstabs are r biased? Jesus christ almighty!

Our Minnesota posters seem to be firmly convinced that Ellison will win reelection. If he does, that would be a major polling error in favor of the Democrats.

I don't believe I have ever said Ellison is more than a slight favorite. Right now I think it's a tossup and anyone who predicts the race with confidence is lying.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The poll literally has Walz ahead by 8 points and yall are saying the crosstabs are r biased? Jesus christ almighty!

Our Minnesota posters seem to be firmly convinced that Ellison will win reelection. If he does, that would be a major polling error in favor of the Democrats.

I don't believe I have ever said Ellison is more than a slight favorite. Right now I think it's a tossup and anyone who predicts the race with confidence is lying.

I agree. I'm not saying Ellison will win so much as it's very unlikely he underruns Walz by 9 points.

[TDAS04]

Makes sense.

[Peeperkorn]

The poll literally has Walz ahead by 8 points and yall are saying the crosstabs are r biased? Jesus christ almighty!

Our Minnesota posters seem to be firmly convinced that Ellison will win reelection. If he does, that would be a major polling error in favor of the Democrats.

I don't believe I have ever said Ellison is more than a slight favorite. Right now I think it's a tossup and anyone who predicts the race with confidence is lying.

This.

[wbrocks67]

They nailed the GOV race but totally whiffed on Auditor and AG