NH:Saint Anselm: bolduc +1

[Matty]

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-gop-momentum

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1587507894110588929

[2016]

2014 Redux again?

Bottom is falling out of the Democratic Party. Same Poll has Karoline Leavitt ahead of Chris Pappas by 6 Points.

[Green Line]

Climbing Maggie is going to win narrowly again.  But she won’t climb any higher than Senator.

[Dani Rose]

I don't think I've ever heard of this outfit in my life? And the results run completely counter even to what some GOP-aligned firms are saying, so I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt.

[Senator Incitatus]

I don't think I've ever heard of this outfit in my life? And the results run completely counter even to what some GOP-aligned firms are saying, so I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt.

You’ve never heard of St. Anselm College?

[Dani Rose]

I don't think I've ever heard of this outfit in my life? And the results run completely counter even to what some GOP-aligned firms are saying, so I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt.

You’ve never heard of St. Anselm College?

Wow.

Sorry, same brainwave that made me completely miss that ABQ Journal was a newspaper. My bad.

[UncleSam]

This is one of those MoE results you expect to sometimes see when Ds are ahead by 3 in reality.

2014 redux, similar margin to 2014 in the end.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't think I've ever heard of this outfit in my life? And the results run completely counter even to what some GOP-aligned firms are saying, so I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt.

You’ve never heard of St. Anselm College?

Wow.

Sorry, same brainwave that made me completely miss that ABQ Journal was a newspaper. My bad.

It's all good! I only recognize them because they were one of the more consistent pollsters in NH during the 2020 cycle.  

[Dani Rose]

I don't think I've ever heard of this outfit in my life? And the results run completely counter even to what some GOP-aligned firms are saying, so I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt.

You’ve never heard of St. Anselm College?

Wow.

Sorry, same brainwave that made me completely miss that ABQ Journal was a newspaper. My bad.

It's all good! I only recognize them because they were one of the more consistent pollsters in NH during the 2020 cycle.  

2020 polling all sort of blended together for me, especially in states like New Hampshire where people generally accepted there was never really going to be a race even if the election as a whole was close.

Also ADHD Brain is focused on other things right now and completely pushed out the possibility of us ever having heard of Saint Anselm.

[Devils30]

They got a really funky sample, Bolduc up with college grads by the same amount as HS or less. In a state as white as NH that is virtually impossible to happen. He also leads with under 50 and moderates while Hassan up 17 with 65+. Unskewing is silly but good polls shouldn't have this much noise.

This sample is 40% liberal, 10% moderate and 49% conservative.

NH should probably be around a 25-40-35 split here.

[KaiserDave]

Catastrophic poll for Democrats. I think Hassan still wins by a very narrow margin but this is...not good.

[wbrocks67]

They got a really funky sample, Bolduc up with college grads by the same amount as HS or less. In a state as white as NH that is virtually impossible to happen. He also leads with under 50 and moderates while Hassan up 17 with 65+. Unskewing is silly but good polls shouldn't have this much noise.

They also have NH-01 shifting literally 15% in one month.

[Devils30]

They got a really funky sample, Bolduc up with college grads by the same amount as HS or less. In a state as white as NH that is virtually impossible to happen. He also leads with under 50 and moderates while Hassan up 17 with 65+. Unskewing is silly but good polls shouldn't have this much noise.

They also have NH-01 shifting literally 15% in one month.

55% of the electorate in NH-1 is probably conservative in this sample.

[Zache]

When it rains it pours.

[MT Treasurer]

Consistent with the bottom falling out for Democrats, obviously. Even if he doesn’t quite make it, the Senate is gone for Democrats on a night when Bolduc is this close to winning here.

[Duke of York]

It’s truly stunning to me that morons like him could very well win. I’m calling the Senate for Republicans. This will 2014 all over again.

[Real Texan Politics]

By the way, I believe this poll led to RCP just now moving NH to the republican column on their map.

[Woody]

If true, Democrats are going to be malding pretty hard Nov. 8!

[free my dawg]

Weird sample, but at least this is from a reputable firm. Taking with a grain of salt.

[Brother Jonathan]

Agree with the consensus here; it confirms that the race is getting closer, but I still think this overstates Bolduc a bit. I do wonder how this race would have gone with a more generic R like Morse.

[Woody]

Just for the record. St Anselm's last polls for 2020:

Biden +8
Shaheen +15
Sununu +25

Incredibly accurate, with the exception of underestimating Sununu a bit.

[free my dawg]

Agree with the consensus here; it confirms that the race is getting closer, but I still think this overstates Bolduc a bit. I do wonder how this race would have gone with a more generic R like Morse.

I don't think the race changes much. Bolduc has a legitimate appeal to the base. Morse is a low-energy loser who appeals to nobody.

[Brother Jonathan]

Agree with the consensus here; it confirms that the race is getting closer, but I still think this overstates Bolduc a bit. I do wonder how this race would have gone with a more generic R like Morse.

I don't think the race changes much. Bolduc has a legitimate appeal to the base. Morse is a low-energy loser who appeals to nobody.

That was my one thought as well, and Bolduc might have been a spanner in the works. But I suppose a scenario where Sununu is the nominee is one where this race might have made this race rather interesting. Bolduc could still have made a mess in any scenario though, so it might be this is just the best a Republican can do in this environment.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is this a Sezler 2.0 ?

[citizenZ]

Consistent with the bottom falling out for Democrats, obviously. Even if he doesn’t quite make it, the Senate is gone for Democrats on a night when Bolduc is this close to winning here.

That's what I was thinking. There are starting to be so many pick-up opportunities, it's becoming difficult to think the GOP won't win control next week.