GA-SEN (AJC): Walker +0.3
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  GA-SEN (AJC): Walker +0.3
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Author Topic: GA-SEN (AJC): Walker +0.3  (Read 706 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 31, 2022, 11:14:01 AM »
« edited: October 31, 2022, 11:37:07 AM by wbrocks67 »

Walker (R) 45.5%
Warnock (D) 45.2%
Oliver (L) 5%

Sept 25-Oct 4: Warnock 46, Walker 43
Sept 5-16: Walker 46, Warnock 44
Jul 14-22: Warnock 46, Walker 43

https://www.ajc.com/politics/final-ajc-midterm-poll-kemp-leads-abrams-deadlocked-senate-race/VIIIPLZJQVCJBLADW3OMD75BPE/
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2022, 11:16:14 AM »

Runoff it is.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2022, 11:17:12 AM »

Pretty shocking that it's tied here - Warnock has a 49% favorability, while Walker only 39% (same as NYT/Siena)

Also of note - this is an R+9 sample. (last poll was R+7)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2022, 11:17:48 AM »

A runoff is virtually certain at this point. I still maintain that Warnock would be favored, and it is clear that Walker was not significantly harmed by his abortion scandal.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2022, 11:22:15 AM »

The other poll had Warnock at 49 percent near 50 and turnout has been high for Ds, again users are basing it off a poll just because it has an R ahead like PA and NV
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Pollster
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2022, 11:23:08 AM »

If control of the Senate is decided before this runoff, very possible we see the bottom fall out for Walker given those favorability ratings.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2022, 11:24:02 AM »

If control of the Senate is decided before this runoff, very possible we see the bottom fall out for Walker given those favorability ratings.

It wont be decided by a runoff NV, PA, WI, OH and NC are still tossups, thats why I make a wave insurance map FL, OH, NC, PA, GA, NV are all tossups, its called a prediction map not ratings maps and black, brown and females and non evangelicals vote D
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Woody
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2022, 11:27:16 AM »

There won't be a runoff. Those remaining undecideds/Libertarians are Kemp voters, a chunk of which will have a change of heart when they get that ballot.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2022, 11:34:10 AM »

I have to nitpick.. it is actually Walker +0.3

45.5 to Warnock's 45.2
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2022, 11:36:50 AM »

I have to nitpick.. it is actually Walker +0.3

45.5 to Warnock's 45.2

Thanks, couldn't find the crosstabs.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2022, 11:37:50 AM »

I will also note that there are not that many Kemp-Warnock voters in this poll. Warnock is only running 1% ahead of Abrams here, while Kemp is running 6% ahead of Walker. It seems that Kemp is winning the undecideds and most of the third-party voters in the Senate race. The number of Kemp-Warnock voters seems to have been overestimated. Just as in Arizona, split-ticket voting will be minimal.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2022, 11:39:57 AM »

Curiously, this one has Victor at 5% and NYT/Siena has him at 1%. Third parties seem to do relatively well in GA, so I'd expect like 2-3% in the end, but we'll see.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2022, 11:41:12 AM »

Curiously, this one has Victor at 5% and NYT/Siena has him at 1%. Third parties seem to do relatively well in GA, so I'd expect like 2-3% in the end, but we'll see.

Victor is running in Arizona.  The Libertarian candidate in GA-SEN is Chase Oliver. Smiley  I agree 2-3% for him is likely, perhaps even a bit higher.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2022, 11:42:12 AM »

I will also note that there are not that many Kemp-Warnock voters in this poll. Warnock is only running 1% ahead of Abrams here, while Kemp is running 6% ahead of Walker. It seems that Kemp is winning the undecideds and most of the third-party voters in the Senate race. The number of Kemp-Warnock voters seems to have been overestimated. Just as in Arizona, split-ticket voting will be minimal.

Details from the AJC article:

Quote
The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, indicates that about 6% of Kemp supporters say they’re voting for Warnock and an additional 5% back Oliver.
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2016
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2022, 11:43:36 AM »

There won't be a runoff. Those remaining undecideds/Libertarians are Kemp voters, a chunk of which will have a change of heart when they get that ballot.
Thank God we have a SECRET BALLOT. When it comes to ultimativly voting on E-Day and they go alone in that booth they select Kemp and Walker given what's transpired over the last two years with Biden.

Lightening will not strike twice for Warnock. Even if this goes to a Runoff contradictory what everyone else says I think Walker would win it.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2022, 11:44:42 AM »

I will also note that there are not that many Kemp-Warnock voters in this poll. Warnock is only running 1% ahead of Abrams here, while Kemp is running 6% ahead of Walker. It seems that Kemp is winning the undecideds and most of the third-party voters in the Senate race. The number of Kemp-Warnock voters seems to have been overestimated. Just as in Arizona, split-ticket voting will be minimal.

Details from the AJC article:

Quote
The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, indicates that about 6% of Kemp supporters say they’re voting for Warnock and an additional 5% back Oliver.
Look, these Voters can all say what they want, in the end they will be voting for Walker.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2022, 11:49:25 AM »

I will also note that there are not that many Kemp-Warnock voters in this poll. Warnock is only running 1% ahead of Abrams here, while Kemp is running 6% ahead of Walker. It seems that Kemp is winning the undecideds and most of the third-party voters in the Senate race. The number of Kemp-Warnock voters seems to have been overestimated. Just as in Arizona, split-ticket voting will be minimal.

Details from the AJC article:

Quote
The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, indicates that about 6% of Kemp supporters say they’re voting for Warnock and an additional 5% back Oliver.

The topline result doesn't have Warnock running heavily ahead of Abrams, however. On balance, it seems to me that the undecideds and third-party voters are making the difference between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2022, 11:54:53 AM »

2016 and Hollywood cant get over Trafalger miss a poll showing Grisham losing by 1 and Grisham is winning 50/42
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2022, 11:55:26 AM »

Somewhat oddly and shockingly, this poll actually has Abrams running ahead of Warnock with black voters and Democrats. Though largely because there is a bit more undecideds in the senate race among those groups.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2022, 12:08:00 PM »

There won't be a runoff. Those remaining undecideds/Libertarians are Kemp voters, a chunk of which will have a change of heart when they get that ballot.

Have you had a change of heart about following through on your promise to leave the forum for a year yet?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2022, 12:13:34 PM »

If control of the Senate is decided before this runoff, very possible we see the bottom fall out for Walker given those favorability ratings.

I think the worse Dems do nationally on November 8th, the better Warnock does in a runoff if he can force one.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2022, 01:17:54 PM »

I'd imagine a runoff is likely with an outside shot of a Warnock outright victory
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Horus
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2022, 02:22:13 PM »

Yeah it's going to a runoff.

Really a shame that Warnock couldn't lock this up. Could've been an easy win, even in this environment.
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