GA-SEN (AJC): Walker +0.3

[Calthrina950]

A runoff is virtually certain at this point. I still maintain that Warnock would be favored, and it is clear that Walker was not significantly harmed by his abortion scandal.

[Calthrina950]

I will also note that there are not that many Kemp-Warnock voters in this poll. Warnock is only running 1% ahead of Abrams here, while Kemp is running 6% ahead of Walker. It seems that Kemp is winning the undecideds and most of the third-party voters in the Senate race. The number of Kemp-Warnock voters seems to have been overestimated. Just as in Arizona, split-ticket voting will be minimal.

[Calthrina950]

I will also note that there are not that many Kemp-Warnock voters in this poll. Warnock is only running 1% ahead of Abrams here, while Kemp is running 6% ahead of Walker. It seems that Kemp is winning the undecideds and most of the third-party voters in the Senate race. The number of Kemp-Warnock voters seems to have been overestimated. Just as in Arizona, split-ticket voting will be minimal.

Details from the AJC article:

The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, indicates that about 6% of Kemp supporters say they’re voting for Warnock and an additional 5% back Oliver.

The topline result doesn't have Warnock running heavily ahead of Abrams, however. On balance, it seems to me that the undecideds and third-party voters are making the difference between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races.