AZ: OH Predictive Insights: Lake (R) +2

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona Governor by OH Predictive Insights on 2022-10-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lake definitely seems to have a lead in this race.  The other results are OK to good for Democrats:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1587087614821048320

[Sir Mohamed]

It's still kind of frustrating there's a junk of voters going for Kelly and Lake. I get that Hobbs is not the greatest candidate, but Kari Lake 4 gov? Seriously?

[Calthrina950]

It's still kind of frustrating there's a junk of voters going for Kelly and Lake. I get that Hobbs is not the greatest candidate, but Kari Lake 4 gov? Seriously?

As I said before, not much ticket-splitting is actually occurring between those races. Lake has the support of the Libertarian voters who are backing Victor in the Senatorial race, while Kelly is only running about ~1% ahead of Hobbs here. Obviously, there are some Lake-Kelly voters, but ticket-splitting in Arizona is down considerably from 2018, when there were ~200,000 Ducey-Sinema voters.

[xavier110]

It's still kind of frustrating there's a junk of voters going for Kelly and Lake. I get that Hobbs is not the greatest candidate, but Kari Lake 4 gov? Seriously?

These have been some excellent polls for Ds, all things considered. Especially the Siena one with Kelly at 51. If he hits that number, it’s hard for me to see Hobbs much more behind, which would basically be a 50/50 race since there are no spoilers on the governor ballot. The two way race, in that respect, weirdly works in Hobbs’ favor IMO. People who are eh on Hobbs but hate Lake would otherwise entertain a third party option.