AZ: OH Predictive Insights: Sen. Kelly (D) +2

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by OH Predictive Insights on 2022-10-26

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[wbrocks67]

Is Victor no longer at 15% lol

[MillennialModerate]

Is this firm R leaning?

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s hard to understate just how strong of a poll this is for Masters. This poll suggests that the early/E day split is 55 to 44 for republicans, 87 to 12 for democrats, and 69 to 30 for independents. If you assume that early vote ends right now (this is obviously not true, but republicans actually gained in the last week of 2020 so this should be a fine assumption) and divide each party’s raw vote total to date by the estimated percentage of early vote, you get the following estimated electorate:

Republican: 45.9%
Democrat: 31.5%
Independent or other party: 22.6%

This estimate has a few limitations. Polls could be under-representing Election Day voters by missing low propensity voters. It doesn’t account for the fact that early voting republicans are less likely to support Masters. It also assumes that the party ID they use in the poll is functionally the same thing as registered party. But it does show that if nothing changes and we start getting exit polls with an absurd republican vote share, the signs were there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is this firm R leaning?

They're a local market research company.  I don't think they're affiliated with either party.  538 gives them a provisional B/C rating with a small R bias (R+0.7 on average).  Their results in the past have varied; in 2020 they overestimated Biden's and Kelly's performance by the same margin (2.7%), but in 2018 they considerably overestimated all the Republicans in races they polled.  See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/oh-predictive-insights/ for more details.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna win

[2016]

It’s hard to understate just how strong of a poll this is for Masters. This poll suggests that the early/E day split is 55 to 44 for republicans, 87 to 12 for democrats, and 69 to 30 for independents. If you assume that early vote ends right now (this is obviously not true, but republicans actually gained in the last week of 2020 so this should be a fine assumption) and divide each party’s raw vote total to date by the estimated percentage of early vote, you get the following estimated electorate:

Republican: 45.9%
Democrat: 31.5%
Independent or other party: 22.6%

This estimate has a few limitations. Polls could be under-representing Election Day voters by missing low propensity voters. It doesn’t account for the fact that early voting republicans are less likely to support Masters. It also assumes that the party ID they use in the poll is functionally the same thing as registered party. But it does show that if nothing changes and we start getting exit polls with an absurd republican vote share, the signs were there.

This Poll tells me that the Siena/NY Times Poll will have an EGG on their face. According to Siena President Biden is at 36 % Job Approval in AZ and by a 7-Point Margin Voters prefer a Republican Senate 49/42 and Siena is telling us because of Candidate Quality you can buck these kind of headwinds and outrun the sitting President by 15 Points? Color me very sceptical on that.

[bilaps]

It's an 11pt shift for Masters in 3 weeks

[Calthrina950]

Kelly has been clinging to a stubborn lead in Arizona for months now. Oz and Laxalt are both more likely to win than Masters is at this point.

[ListMan38]

Good for Masters if true, but yeah Kelly being marginally the favorite is about where I'd put it.