WA: Triton Research: Sen. Murray (D) +5 (rounded: +6)
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  WA: Triton Research: Sen. Murray (D) +5 (rounded: +6)
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Author Topic: WA: Triton Research: Sen. Murray (D) +5 (rounded: +6)  (Read 876 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 29, 2022, 12:28:11 AM »

New Poll: Washington Senator by Triton Research on 2022-10-27

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2022, 01:34:26 AM »

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2022, 08:55:13 AM »

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.
I know people have stated there is usually little divergence but if not what happened?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2022, 09:27:43 AM »

Great, another IVR poll with a pretty crappy track record (according to 538)
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2022, 09:33:08 AM »

These close Washington polls, along with the fact that we have solid numbers from the primary, makes me think Republicans might be getting overestimated in the polls across the country this year. Even if the race is a little closer than what the primary implied, I doubt Murray loses by less than 8-9 points and most likely will win by double digits.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2022, 10:23:52 AM »

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?
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UncleSam
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2022, 11:39:50 AM »

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?
I think this is a 8-10 point race because Smiley is running a uniquely strong campaign and Murray is just an awful, uninspiring senator in terms of campaigning. States don’t always move in unison and yes I think there’s an underrated chance that CCM wins while the margin in WA is <10 points.

Now I’m not saying that Laxalt can’t win - I think that race is very close to a pure tossup. I just think that Oz wins before Laxalt does, and probably Masters too.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2022, 11:41:27 AM »

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?
I think this is a 8-10 point race because Smiley is running a uniquely strong campaign and Murray is just an awful, uninspiring senator in terms of campaigning. States don’t always move in unison and yes I think there’s an underrated chance that CCM wins while the margin in WA is <10 points.

Now I’m not saying that Laxalt can’t win - I think that race is very close to a pure tossup. I just think that Oz wins before Laxalt does, and probably Masters too.

If Masto wins in Nevada while Oz wins in Pennsylvania and Masters wins in Arizona, and Murray wins in Washington by single digits, 2022 would be almost a replica of 2010.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2022, 01:45:31 PM »

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?
I think this is a 8-10 point race because Smiley is running a uniquely strong campaign and Murray is just an awful, uninspiring senator in terms of campaigning. States don’t always move in unison and yes I think there’s an underrated chance that CCM wins while the margin in WA is <10 points.

Now I’m not saying that Laxalt can’t win - I think that race is very close to a pure tossup. I just think that Oz wins before Laxalt does, and probably Masters too.

Biden won WA by 19 points, he won NV by 2.5 points. States "don’t always move in unison," yes, but you’re not going to see a deep blue state which has been trending even more reliably Democratic over the last two decades be decided by single digits while a (generic at best) Democratic incumbent in a Republican-trending swing state somehow manages to win reelection. This is another example of people missing the forest for the trees because of their own (arbitrary) notions of "candidate quality."

Besides, are we seriously going to argue that Cortez Masto is a particularly "strong" incumbent?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2022, 02:05:35 PM »

Jesus, I'm glad when this is all over.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2022, 02:28:25 PM »


I always start feeling a little burned out in the last couple of weeks before an election.  Our campaign seasons are just too long.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2022, 05:20:09 PM »


Murray is gonna win by 10
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2022, 06:50:28 PM »

We in the who dat portion of election season when it comes to pollsters. Some of Titan Researches recent efforts.
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