WA: Triton Research: Sen. Murray (D) +5 (rounded: +6)

[Calthrina950]

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?

I think this is a 8-10 point race because Smiley is running a uniquely strong campaign and Murray is just an awful, uninspiring senator in terms of campaigning. States don’t always move in unison and yes I think there’s an underrated chance that CCM wins while the margin in WA is <10 points.

Now I’m not saying that Laxalt can’t win - I think that race is very close to a pure tossup. I just think that Oz wins before Laxalt does, and probably Masters too.

If Masto wins in Nevada while Oz wins in Pennsylvania and Masters wins in Arizona, and Murray wins in Washington by single digits, 2022 would be almost a replica of 2010.