WA: Triton Research: Sen. Murray (D) +5 (rounded: +6)

[MT Treasurer]

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?

[MT Treasurer]

I believe it, Murray is acting like this is a five-point race. No chance of an actual upset here but this will be way closer than the primary made it look like it would be.

So let me get this straight: You believe that this is a 5-point race but that Cortez Masto will win reelection as well?

I think this is a 8-10 point race because Smiley is running a uniquely strong campaign and Murray is just an awful, uninspiring senator in terms of campaigning. States don’t always move in unison and yes I think there’s an underrated chance that CCM wins while the margin in WA is <10 points.

Now I’m not saying that Laxalt can’t win - I think that race is very close to a pure tossup. I just think that Oz wins before Laxalt does, and probably Masters too.

Biden won WA by 19 points, he won NV by 2.5 points. States "don’t always move in unison," yes, but you’re not going to see a deep blue state which has been trending even more reliably Democratic over the last two decades be decided by single digits while a (generic at best) Democratic incumbent in a Republican-trending swing state somehow manages to win reelection. This is another example of people missing the forest for the trees because of their own (arbitrary) notions of "candidate quality."

Besides, are we seriously going to argue that Cortez Masto is a particularly "strong" incumbent?