CT Examiner/Fabrizio: CT-02 Courtney +22, CT-04 Himes +16, CT-05 Tied

[Roll Roons]

https://ctexaminer.com/2022/10/28/hayes-and-logan-neck-and-neck-in-latest-polling-of-congressional-race/

CT-02: Joe Courtney 51%, Mike France 29%
CT-04: Jim Himes 53%, Jayme Stevenson 37%
CT-05: Jahana Hayes and George Logan tied at 45%

[S019]

CT-05 is beginning to become genuinely concerning. I still think Hayes wins in the end, but it does not look good.

[Vosem]

https://ctexaminer.com/2022/10/28/hayes-and-logan-neck-and-neck-in-latest-polling-of-congressional-race/

CT-02: Joe Courtney 51%, Mike France 29%
CT-04: Jim Himes 53%, Jayme Stevenson 37%
CT-05: Jahana Hayes and George Logan tied at 45%

This poll also did generic congressional ballot, and they found some strong differences:

CT-2: 44D-42R
CT-4: 48D-38R
CT-5: 46R-42D

Democratic incumbents are outrunning generic Democrats consistently (or, if you like, Republican challengers are running behind generic Republicans). To some extent, this is a good sanity check; it's what you would expect to see if the generic congressional ballot and the Senate polls were coming from the same universe. But it's probably a good sign for Republicans -- it means that on balance mathematically more undecideds prefer Republicans to Democrats in the abstract.

Using 2021 patterns (straight swing from Biden vs. Trump), this poll gets you an expected GCB, per district, of R+6 in CT-2, R+17 in CT-4, and R+11 in CT-5. (On the other hand, once you name the actual candidates, this swings to...D+16 in CT-2, R+11 in CT-4, and R+7 in CT-5).

So on the whole probably quite a strong poll for the GOP.

[Devils30]

Fabrizio is an R pollster but I wouldn't treat him quite like Trafalgar. Courtney never takes his races for granted even though CT-2 is in theory winnable for Rs.